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12% real decline from peak for Perth house prices
Topic Started: 15 Dec 2016, 08:08 AM (8,459 Views)
Khaderbhai
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Wealthy Suburbanite

Some forum members have been struggling to calculate the real decline from peak for Perth house prices.

The ABS has the answer...

http://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs@.nsf/DetailsPage/6416.0Sep%202016

Perth Index
Mar-2014 = 114.8
Jun-2014 = 114.8
Sep-2014 = 114.5
Dec-2014 = 114.5
Mar-2015 = 114.4
Jun-2015 = 113.4
Sep-2015 = 110.7
Dec-2015 = 111.2
Mar-2016 = 109.3
Jun-2016 = 108.0
Sep-2016 = 106.3

So from the peak in March 2014, the Perth index is currently down 7.4%.

Annual CPI inflation was 1.7% in 2014, 1.7% in 2015 and 1.3% in 2016... http://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs@.nsf/mf/6401.0

So that's a 12% fall in real terms over three years, according to the official ABS data.

Those expecting a 40% fall have another 28% to go, which would take another seven years if the average rate of decline between 2014-2016 continues.
Edited by Khaderbhai, 15 Dec 2016, 08:21 AM.
Banks can't repossess your home simply because the market value falls. Australia's Consumer Credit Code says consumers aren't liable for things ordinarily outside their control and can't be held to obligations that could only be met by selling their home. Click for details.

"The truth is that there are no good men, or bad men. It is the deeds that have goodness or badness in them. There are good deeds, and bad deeds. Men are just men."
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Jimbo
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Khaderbhai
15 Dec 2016, 08:08 AM
Some forum members have been struggling to calculate the real decline from peak for Perth house prices.
One forum member in particular seems suddenly and unusually interested in the plight of the Perth property investor?
Matthew, 30 Jan 2016, 09:21 AM Your simplistic view is so flawed it is not worth debating. The current oversupply will be swallowed in 12 months. By the time dumb shits like you realise this prices will already be :?: rising.
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Khaderbhai
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Wealthy Suburbanite

Jimbo
15 Dec 2016, 08:13 AM
One forum member in particular seems suddenly and unusually interested in the plight of the Perth property investor?
I plan to be a Perth investor myself when the market bottoms next year, so yes I've been watching Perth for a while.
Banks can't repossess your home simply because the market value falls. Australia's Consumer Credit Code says consumers aren't liable for things ordinarily outside their control and can't be held to obligations that could only be met by selling their home. Click for details.

"The truth is that there are no good men, or bad men. It is the deeds that have goodness or badness in them. There are good deeds, and bad deeds. Men are just men."
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Foxy
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Zero is coming...

Jimbo
15 Dec 2016, 08:13 AM
One forum member in particular seems suddenly and unusually interested in the plight of the Perth property investor?
one by one as the situation changes for them they will become very interested, then they one by one will tell everyone that it was them that predicted the normalization of Perth property prices. :D :D :D

Hopeless people.

But we did try to warn them.




Khaderbhai
15 Dec 2016, 08:24 AM
I plan to be a Perth investor myself when the market bottoms next year, so yes I've been watching Perth for a while.
Now you are talking some sense.

Edited by Foxy, 15 Dec 2016, 08:41 AM.
http://www.afr.com/content/dam/images/g/n/2/1/u/8/image.imgtype.afrArticleInline.620x0.png/1456285515560.png
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Rufus
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Khaderbhai
15 Dec 2016, 08:24 AM
I plan to be a Perth investor myself when the market bottoms next year, so yes I've been watching Perth for a while.
Yes I agree, Perth is good buying, but getting a tenant is the issue, but rental vacancies are falling.
Looking attractive.

On the nominal side, it has only fallen 7.4%. So those who sold paid about 2.5% agents fees, and they will pay about 4% to 5% in stamp duty to get back in, what a waste of time that would be.
Take risks - if you win you will become wealthy, if you lose you will become wise
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Foxy
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Zero is coming...

Rufus
15 Dec 2016, 08:41 AM
Yes I agree, Perth is good buying, but getting a tenant is the issue, but rental vacancies are falling.
Looking attractive.

On the nominal side, it has only fallen 7.4%. So those who sold paid about 2.5% agents fees, and they will pay about 4% to 5% in stamp duty to get back in, what a waste of time that would be.
What about the interest bill??

And you are stating what has happened, Foxbat stated what he thought would happen, and it is still happening...

He has shown me properties that on his figures are 100% wipeouts for the owners.

From the peak.

You see this game only works if you have never ending capital gains, it is a wipeout if that stops.

You have either not understood that yet or refuse to understand it, hoping that capital gains recovers.

Ask the Port Hedland and Karratha investors what they think...
http://www.afr.com/content/dam/images/g/n/2/1/u/8/image.imgtype.afrArticleInline.620x0.png/1456285515560.png
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Khaderbhai
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Wealthy Suburbanite

foxbat
15 Dec 2016, 02:56 PM
You see this game only works if you have never ending capital gains, it is a wipeout if that stops.
Not the case. Capital gain stops regularly. In Sydney, capital gain stopped in 2004, 2005, 2008 and 2011, and prices actually fell.

Sydney prices fell almost 20% in real terms from 2003-2008 (much greater than the recent real falls in Perth).

But it wasn't a wipeout. Most people just held on until capital gain resumed. Meanwhile, the rent still flows in.
Edited by Khaderbhai, 15 Dec 2016, 03:04 PM.
Banks can't repossess your home simply because the market value falls. Australia's Consumer Credit Code says consumers aren't liable for things ordinarily outside their control and can't be held to obligations that could only be met by selling their home. Click for details.

"The truth is that there are no good men, or bad men. It is the deeds that have goodness or badness in them. There are good deeds, and bad deeds. Men are just men."
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Terry
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Perth needs a new slogan to attract tourism and business investment. Hmmm....

Come to Perth--Cheap as Chips
Edited by Terry, 15 Dec 2016, 03:10 PM.
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Ex BP Golly
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Khaderbhai
15 Dec 2016, 03:03 PM
Not the case. Capital gain stops regularly. In Sydney, capital gain stopped in 2004, 2005, 2008 and 2011, and prices actually fell.

Sydney prices fell almost 20% in real terms from 2003-2008 (much greater than the recent real falls in Perth).

But it wasn't a wipeout. Most people just held on until capital gain resumed. Meanwhile, the rent still flows in.
Most people being home owners with the big idea of living in their abode.

We'll see what happens next time, now that there are so many cross collateralized, massively leveraged investors in the market.

Can they hold on?
Maybe if they buy enough mechanically reclaimed mince futures.
WHAT WOULD EDDIE DO? MAAAATE!
Share a cot with Milton?
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skamy
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Terry
15 Dec 2016, 03:09 PM
Perth needs a new slogan to attract tourism and business investment. Hmmm....

Come to Perth--Cheap as Chips
Someone like you could never enjoy Perth - you are too up yourself for this place. It is really just one big suburbia by the sea.
Ex BP Golly
15 Dec 2016, 03:15 PM
Most people being home owners with the big idea of living in their abode.

We'll see what happens next time, now that there are so many cross collateralized, massively leveraged investors in the market.

Can they hold on?
Maybe if they buy enough mechanically reclaimed mince futures.
You are such a fibber - massively leveraged investors are a figment of your imagination. For almost 10 years banks have been lending very cautiously and for the last 10 years in Perth investors have been slim on the ground.

Don't let the facts interfere with your black fantasy land.
Edited by skamy, 15 Dec 2016, 03:46 PM.
Definition of a doom and gloomer from 1993
The last camp is made up of the doom-and-gloomers. Their slogan is "it's the end of the world as we know it". Right now they are convinced that debt is the evil responsible for all our economic woes and must be eliminated at all cost. Many doom-and-gloomers believe that unprecedented debt levels mean that we are on the precipice of a worse crisis than the Great Depression. The doom-and-gloomers hang on the latest series of negative economic data.
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