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Gittins says, "it's all bullshit"; Uneducated plebs have it wrong again!
Topic Started: 10 Dec 2016, 11:53 PM (3,531 Views)
Rufus
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Terry
11 Dec 2016, 08:26 PM
About the supernatural? Yes, you're right. I have no idea. If there is some other way you're "informed" about the future direction of GDP data, feel free to share. If it is based on forecasting using quantitative techniques, I'm even more interested.
I'll let you into a secret, the downturn was due to lower revenues in two states

- WA but higher incomes due to higher ore prices will kick in this current quarter,

- and the other state to experience lower activity was Victoria because building activity was much lower due to abnormally wet weather, which hasn't happen in this quarter.

we're far enough into this quarter to know where we are going.
Take risks - if you win you will become wealthy, if you lose you will become wise
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Khaderbhai
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Wealthy Suburbanite

Terry
11 Dec 2016, 08:00 PM
Waffle to you MC
Waffle to everyone Roddy.
Banks can't repossess your home simply because the market value falls. Australia's Consumer Credit Code says consumers aren't liable for things ordinarily outside their control and can't be held to obligations that could only be met by selling their home. Click for details.

"The truth is that there are no good men, or bad men. It is the deeds that have goodness or badness in them. There are good deeds, and bad deeds. Men are just men."
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Terry
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Rufus
11 Dec 2016, 08:38 PM
I'll let you into a secret, the downturn was due to lower revenues in two states

- WA but higher incomes due to higher ore prices will kick in this current quarter,

- and the other state to experience lower activity was Victoria because building activity was much lower due to abnormally wet weather, which hasn't happen in this quarter.

we're far enough into this quarter to know where we are going.
What that means is that you know directionally that there is a probability that GDP will be higher in the next reported data. You don't know what that probability is, nor do you know what the actual outcome is. If you were really "informed", you would know the probabilities. Furthermore, given that you know that iron ore prices are higher, theoretically you should be able to estimate the impact on the next reported GDP outcome.

What I have just explained above is what economists do for a living, yet there is not one quarter of GDP data where there is a 100% consensus of the direction of the data.

Therefore, when you consider yourself to be "informed", the reality is that you're not. You're simply a sucker for the tired old scribblings of Gittins mumbling about looking out the window to understand the real state of economic output.
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zaph
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Quote:
 
"technical" recession

This term get's brandished around a lot(always in parenthesis) in an attempt to downplay any possible recession. The country is either in recession or it's not. What sort of recession; long, short, deep, shallow is another matter. Perhaps these commentators should note their forecasts on the characteristics of a possible recession and the consequences.

Quote:
 
look out the window

Then Ross suggests that the window is ABS data.

Quote:
 
Michael Blythe, chief economist for the Commonwealth Bank, offers the most enlightening metaphor, saying the economy had just hit a pothole.

A 'pothole' and 'technical recession', we must need some 'programmatic specificity'.

Not all GDP growth/contraction has the same effect on the economy...
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"First, export growth was weak, as coal production was disrupted by a roof collapse at a key mine, and various other factors," he says.

Might influence GDP but has little effect on employment. Unlikely to be repeated. But we are entering cyclone season.

Quote:
 
"Second, residential construction fell in the quarter, which the statistics bureau noted was due to inclement weather.

Much greater effect on employment and the economy. Was it really due to inclement weather? What if it rains again this quarter? In all capitals?

Quote:
 
"Third, there was a sharp fall in public investment spending, which followed a sharp rise in the June quarter.

Completely a political decision. So the govt could spend up to avoid a 'technical recession'.

While school halls, and to a far greater degree pink batts were a good way to avoid recession I would hope that the govt has a list of really worthy projects ready to go. I doubt it.


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Rufus
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Terry
11 Dec 2016, 08:58 PM
What that means is that you know directionally that there is a probability that GDP will be higher in the next reported data. You don't know what that probability is, nor do you know what the actual outcome is. If you were really "informed", you would know the probabilities. Furthermore, given that you know that iron ore prices are higher, theoretically you should be able to estimate the impact on the next reported GDP outcome.

What I have just explained above is what economists do for a living, yet there is not one quarter of GDP data where there is a 100% consensus of the direction of the data.

Therefore, when you consider yourself to be "informed", the reality is that you're not. You're simply a sucker for the tired old scribblings of Gittins mumbling about looking out the window to understand the real state of economic output.
I'm not the one who has been wrong for the last 9 years, you are.
Take risks - if you win you will become wealthy, if you lose you will become wise
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Terry
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Rufus
11 Dec 2016, 10:26 PM
I'm not the one who has been wrong for the last 9 years, you are.
Yes, I would be wrong if I sat around predicting quarterly GDP, but I would never participate in such a futile and banal exercise. If you had even a basic understanding of economic forecasting (as described above), you would think the same. Trying to sound clever by aping the media only fools the fools.
Edited by Terry, 11 Dec 2016, 10:39 PM.
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Khaderbhai
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Wealthy Suburbanite

Terry
11 Dec 2016, 10:38 PM
Yes, I would be wrong if I sat around predicting quarterly GDP
No, you're wrong for sitting around expecting Sydney house prices to crash for a decade.
Banks can't repossess your home simply because the market value falls. Australia's Consumer Credit Code says consumers aren't liable for things ordinarily outside their control and can't be held to obligations that could only be met by selling their home. Click for details.

"The truth is that there are no good men, or bad men. It is the deeds that have goodness or badness in them. There are good deeds, and bad deeds. Men are just men."
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Terry
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Khaderbhai
12 Dec 2016, 07:27 AM
No, you're wrong for sitting around expecting Sydney house prices to crash for a decade.
No expectations about Sydney house prices mother cat. There are plenty of vested interests wrapped up in that lark. You have a plethora of opinions scrambling for attention on Sydney house prices.
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Khaderbhai
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Terry
12 Dec 2016, 08:52 AM
No expectations about Sydney house prices mother cat.
Good to see you've finally moved on Roddy. Pity you didn't figure that out ten years ago.
Banks can't repossess your home simply because the market value falls. Australia's Consumer Credit Code says consumers aren't liable for things ordinarily outside their control and can't be held to obligations that could only be met by selling their home. Click for details.

"The truth is that there are no good men, or bad men. It is the deeds that have goodness or badness in them. There are good deeds, and bad deeds. Men are just men."
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Terry
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Khaderbhai
12 Dec 2016, 08:59 AM
Good to see you've finally moved on Roddy. Pity you didn't figure that out ten years ago.
Never had any intentions to live or invest in Sydney mother cat. Spent about 3-4 months there over the space of a lifetime.
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