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Japanese Property Thread
Topic Started: 10 Dec 2016, 05:27 PM (3,077 Views)
Rufus
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Rastus2
10 Dec 2016, 10:13 PM
Where are the 8 million homes no-one wants ?
Here and there.

http://www.japantimes.co.jp/community/2016/12/03/how-tos/abandoned-buildings-still-house-problems/#.WEvwYoVOLIU
Take risks - if you win you will become wealthy, if you lose you will become wise
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Terry
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Rufus
10 Dec 2016, 11:11 PM
Most of those houses are sitting in small cities outside the main urban areas of Tokyo, Osaka, Nagoya, etc. Central Tokyo is home to 13 million people in an area of 619 km². Compare that to Sydney's urban land area of 1,788 km².

Secondly, Japanese homes are estimated to last 30 years before becoming worthless.
Edited by Terry, 10 Dec 2016, 11:28 PM.
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Rastus2
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Trollie
10 Dec 2016, 05:34 PM
And yet look at how densely it's populated in it's cities.

The other thing you had to have noticed is despite all the talk about japan having economic woes, the view on the ground doesn't support this at all.

Very densely populated, indeed... yet, a number of large parks to enjoy.

I saw little evidence of their economic woes... not that I was in a position to forensically examine the cities, and we specifically avoided the fukushima area, which, I have no doubt, is still suffering.
Shoppers everywhere, workers everywhere... certainly appeared to be very busy... as opposed to much of America when we were traveling through it post GFC.
Shadow - Defrauded his Bank ? 2015 I have 9 different loans and my bank had no idea which ones were personal and which were investment. They had half of them classed incorrectly. When this change came in they asked me to tell them if any personal loans were incorrectly classed as investment, which I did, and they switched them to personal for the lower rate. They also had a couple of investment loans incorrectly classed as personal. They didn't ask me about those. So they stay on the lower rate too. Worked out pretty well. :)
Shadow - 2008 Sydney Median House Price 1.25M by 2014-2015

Shadow : I think this boom has already begun in several cities. My prediction :
Peak of boom: 2014-2015. Sydney Median Price: $1,250,000 Bottom of bust: 2017-2018. Sydney Median Price: $1,100,000

Shadow's Original 2010 House Boom and Crash prediction http://s836.photobucket.com/user/rastus22/media/shady-orig-2010-chart.png.html?sort=3&o=0

Shadow's attempt to edit his 2010 chart in 2015 and replace it with one that does not show a crash in 2013 http://s836.photobucket.com/user/rastus22/media/Screen%20Shot%202015-06-06%20at%207.12.52%20pm_1.png.html
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Terry
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Rastus2
10 Dec 2016, 11:26 PM

Very densely populated, indeed... yet, a number of large parks to enjoy.

I saw little evidence of their economic woes... not that I was in a position to forensically examine the cities, and we specifically avoided the fukushima area, which, I have no doubt, is still suffering.
Shoppers everywhere, workers everywhere... certainly appeared to be very busy... as opposed to much of America when we were traveling through it post GFC.
Yes, Tokyo has some fantastic open spaces. Within an hour or so, you can be in pristine natural environments too.
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Rastus2
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Rufus
10 Dec 2016, 11:11 PM
Interesting, thanks... we did see empty looking properties away from the capital cities, but it's difficult to judge if a property is in use when the maintenance is sometimes so poor, and they are likely at work when we passed by.

Perhaps, if the taxation system was altered, these would not be left standing ...

"the tax system encourages people to build new homes and keep whatever structures they have on their land, no matter how fragile, unsightly and dangerous. Homeowners pay a mere one-sixth of the standard property tax. This means the property tax, a major revenue source for municipalities, shoots up sixfold when a home is demolished."



There is opportunity for people, rather than problems.. if they look.

https://www.ft.com/content/79297b7e-24c6-11e5-bd83-71cb60e8f08c




Shadow - Defrauded his Bank ? 2015 I have 9 different loans and my bank had no idea which ones were personal and which were investment. They had half of them classed incorrectly. When this change came in they asked me to tell them if any personal loans were incorrectly classed as investment, which I did, and they switched them to personal for the lower rate. They also had a couple of investment loans incorrectly classed as personal. They didn't ask me about those. So they stay on the lower rate too. Worked out pretty well. :)
Shadow - 2008 Sydney Median House Price 1.25M by 2014-2015

Shadow : I think this boom has already begun in several cities. My prediction :
Peak of boom: 2014-2015. Sydney Median Price: $1,250,000 Bottom of bust: 2017-2018. Sydney Median Price: $1,100,000

Shadow's Original 2010 House Boom and Crash prediction http://s836.photobucket.com/user/rastus22/media/shady-orig-2010-chart.png.html?sort=3&o=0

Shadow's attempt to edit his 2010 chart in 2015 and replace it with one that does not show a crash in 2013 http://s836.photobucket.com/user/rastus22/media/Screen%20Shot%202015-06-06%20at%207.12.52%20pm_1.png.html
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Matthew
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Khaderbhai
10 Dec 2016, 06:03 PM
Perhaps you should spend a bit longer there, and learn how to spell the city correctly.

Unless you mean you spent time in a samurai's daughter?
Simonesque
Terry
10 Dec 2016, 11:24 PM
Compare that to Sydney's urban land area of 1,788 km².

Secondly, Japanese homes are estimated to last 30 years before becoming worthless.
How much is a house in Sydney worth after 30 years?
Terry
10 Dec 2016, 11:30 PM
Yes, Tokyo has some fantastic open spaces. Within an hour or so, you can be in pristine natural environments too.
So does Shanghai. But I would rather wander around the Humble Administrators Garden in Suzhou 40 minutes by train away. What is your point?
Edited by Matthew, 10 Dec 2016, 11:38 PM.
My only hope for my three boys is that they turn out nothing at all like Chris.
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Foxy
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Zero is coming...

herbie
10 Dec 2016, 09:05 PM
Any idea why Japanese chicks have such short legs Musty? ... :)
Tell me :bl:
http://www.afr.com/content/dam/images/g/n/2/1/u/8/image.imgtype.afrArticleInline.620x0.png/1456285515560.png
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Rufus
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Rastus2
10 Dec 2016, 11:32 PM
Interesting, thanks... we did see empty looking properties away from the capital cities, but it's difficult to judge if a property is in use when the maintenance is sometimes so poor, and they are likely at work when we passed by.

Perhaps, if the taxation system was altered, these would not be left standing ...

"the tax system encourages people to build new homes and keep whatever structures they have on their land, no matter how fragile, unsightly and dangerous. Homeowners pay a mere one-sixth of the standard property tax. This means the property tax, a major revenue source for municipalities, shoots up sixfold when a home is demolished."



There is opportunity for people, rather than problems.. if they look.

https://www.ft.com/content/79297b7e-24c6-11e5-bd83-71cb60e8f08c



Yes sure, if you tax the shit out of something it becomes less desirable and therefore less expensive to buy secondhand, BUT more expensive to hold, and that extra holding cost would soon show up in rents, so the very people we want to help get hurt.

The Japanese housing market won't recover until the population stops falling and begins to rise, but that probably won't happen in our lifetime, the Japanese people have little tolerance for foreigners so immigration on any scale just won't happen.

Sure Tokyo is a huge city, and yes they have a wonderful transport system, but we could too if our governments spent the money on it. Note that Australia is just as urbanised as Japan. LINK
Take risks - if you win you will become wealthy, if you lose you will become wise
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Terry
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Rufus
11 Dec 2016, 09:00 AM
Yes sure, if you tax the shit out of something it becomes less desirable and therefore less expensive to buy secondhand, BUT more expensive to hold, and that extra holding cost would soon show up in rents, so the very people we want to help get hurt.

The Japanese housing market won't recover until the population stops falling and begins to rise, but that probably won't happen in our lifetime, the Japanese people have little tolerance for foreigners so immigration on any scale just won't happen.

Sure Tokyo is a huge city, and yes they have a wonderful transport system, but we could too if our governments spent the money on it. Note that Australia is just as urbanised as Japan. LINK
Population is irrelevant. Research shows that the value of many Japanese homes is reduced to zero after approx 30 years. 60% of all Japanese homes were built after 1980, which is an indication of how active construction turnover is. Making assumptions that the Japanese behave like and have the same attitudes as Australians is wrong.

The most destruction to Japanese housing and property values was caused by asset speculation, not population.

http://www.economist.com/node/10431721
Matthew
10 Dec 2016, 11:33 PM

How much is a house in Sydney worth after 30 years?

Good question Uncle Matty. How do you think you would start to determine that?
Edited by Terry, 11 Dec 2016, 11:00 AM.
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Rastus2
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Rufus
11 Dec 2016, 09:00 AM
Yes sure, if you tax the shit out of something it becomes less desirable and therefore less expensive to buy secondhand, BUT more expensive to hold, and that extra holding cost would soon show up in rents, so the very people we want to help get hurt.

The Japanese housing market won't recover until the population stops falling and begins to rise, but that probably won't happen in our lifetime, the Japanese people have little tolerance for foreigners so immigration on any scale just won't happen.

Sure Tokyo is a huge city, and yes they have a wonderful transport system, but we could too if our governments spent the money on it. Note that Australia is just as urbanised as Japan. LINK

Well, for starters, these are empty houses, so the renters will not be affected if the tax benefit of having an empty house on land is altered.

The Tokyo housing market has been booming for a while, yet population there is not matching the rise, and it seems empty dwellings exist there for similar reasons.

Sure, I would love a great transport system in Australia ... and a unicorn.
How much money do you think it would cost the government to construct a transport system in Australia that matches Japan's ? I am always interested to hear such cries as the source of such funds needs to be taxation... who do you propose to extract the money from ?
Edited by Rastus2, 11 Dec 2016, 02:57 PM.
Shadow - Defrauded his Bank ? 2015 I have 9 different loans and my bank had no idea which ones were personal and which were investment. They had half of them classed incorrectly. When this change came in they asked me to tell them if any personal loans were incorrectly classed as investment, which I did, and they switched them to personal for the lower rate. They also had a couple of investment loans incorrectly classed as personal. They didn't ask me about those. So they stay on the lower rate too. Worked out pretty well. :)
Shadow - 2008 Sydney Median House Price 1.25M by 2014-2015

Shadow : I think this boom has already begun in several cities. My prediction :
Peak of boom: 2014-2015. Sydney Median Price: $1,250,000 Bottom of bust: 2017-2018. Sydney Median Price: $1,100,000

Shadow's Original 2010 House Boom and Crash prediction http://s836.photobucket.com/user/rastus22/media/shady-orig-2010-chart.png.html?sort=3&o=0

Shadow's attempt to edit his 2010 chart in 2015 and replace it with one that does not show a crash in 2013 http://s836.photobucket.com/user/rastus22/media/Screen%20Shot%202015-06-06%20at%207.12.52%20pm_1.png.html
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