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September Quarter GDP; Negative?
Topic Started: 7 Dec 2016, 01:05 AM (3,780 Views)
Chris
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The economy built solely on housing construction. This when constructions dips so one can only imagine the carnage if the house of cards collapses.

These are phenomenal warning signs if anyone cares to take note.
Sydneyite
7 Dec 2016, 12:13 PM
Well GDP still grew 2.2% over the year, and we have not seen a spike in unemployment, increased bankruptcies, drop off in private credit growth, shrinking consumer expenditure, or any of the other tell-tale recessionary signals. So one quarters number does not a recession make on this occasion I suspect. So wouldn't hold my breath for your $900!
Drop off in private credit would be a result of the economy tanking not a signal that it would be, so is unemployment and everything else you mentioned. Do you know anything about economics, anything at all?

Or do you believe that escalating bankruptcies, unemployment and reversing private credit are a natural part of a healthy economy?

And your one of these elite financially savvy pwoperty invwestors..................

Edited by Chris, 7 Dec 2016, 03:06 PM.
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Sydneyite
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Chris
7 Dec 2016, 02:58 PM
The economy built solely on housing construction. This when constructions dips so one can only imagine the carnage if the house of cards collapses.

These are phenomenal warning signs if anyone cares to take note.

Drop off in private credit would be a result of the economy tanking not a signal that it would be, so is unemployment and everything else you mentioned. Do you know anything about economics, anything at all?
Chris - you have to remember that the GDP print we are discussing is already nearly 3 months old - it's for the quarter ended Sep 30 this year. The other data like unemployment, credit / finance and so on are more up to date so if we really were going into recession you would be seeing those indications by now, regardless of what is the chicken and what is the egg.

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Or do you believe that escalating bankruptcies, unemployment and reversing private credit are a natural part of a healthy economy?
Bankruptcies are at extremely low levels, so a small change is just noise. Unemployment is steady / falling nor rising (or escalating even!), and private credit growth has been roaring for years and has only seen one tick down in the most recent data - which would impact the current quarter not the last one.
For Aussie property bears, "denial", is not just a long river in North Africa.....
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Mallard
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Another 0.5-0.75% off the cash rate in H1 2017. Should add another 15-20% onto house prices.

Don't buy now!
Collecting desperation.
Ex-Bp Golly April 2 2015. "I see with a slight overshoot -70% [fall in Sydney house prices] as being well within possibility"
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Simon_S
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Sydneyite
7 Dec 2016, 02:53 PM
You mean like the other SIX times that quarterly GDP growth has been <= 0 in those 26 years of "uninterrupted" growth? :re:

Posted Image
When did we have

Record Debt at 125% of GDP
Record High Asset values.
Record Low Interest Rates.

The last time we had a negative quarter of growth.....

So your saying Economic Conditions are better or the same as the previous 6 times?


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Ex BP Golly
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Sydneyite
7 Dec 2016, 12:13 PM
Well GDP still grew 2.2% over the year, and we have not seen a spike in unemployment, increased bankruptcies, drop off in private credit growth, shrinking consumer expenditure, or any of the other tell-tale recessionary signals. So one quarters number does not a recession make on this occasion I suspect. So wouldn't hold my breath for your $900!..."

http://www.roymorgan.com/findings/7049-australian-unemployment-estimates-october-2016-201611142158
Actual unemployment is around 9%.
Luckily the ABS is here to provide less scary "1 hour a week worked" figures to pacify the sheeple.

Roy Morgan "In October a total of 2.454 million Australians, 19.1% of the workforce, were either unemployed (1,188,000) or under-employed (1,266,000). This is up 256,000 (up 1.7%) from October 2015;

1.188 million Australians (up 78,000 since October 2015) are unemployed and these real unemployment figures are substantially higher than the current ABS figure for September 2016 (5.6%). Australian real unemployment was 9.2% (up 0.4% in a year and up 0.7% in a month);

Edited by Ex BP Golly, 7 Dec 2016, 04:14 PM.
WHAT WOULD EDDIE DO? MAAAATE!
Share a cot with Milton?
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Sydneyite
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Ex BP Golly
7 Dec 2016, 03:47 PM
Actual unemployment is around 9%.
Luckily the ABS I'd here to provide less scary "1 hour a week worked" figures to pacify the steeple.

Roy Morgan "In October a total of 2.454 million Australians, 19.1% of the workforce, were either unemployed (1,188,000) or under-employed (1,266,000). This is up 256,000 (up 1.7%) from October 2015;

1.188 million Australians (up 78,000 since October 2015) are unemployed and these real unemployment figures are substantially higher than the current ABS figure for September 2016 (5.6%). Australian real unemployment was 9.2% (up 0.4% in a year and up 0.7% in a month);
Even if you use your bullshit UE measure - has it been rising or falling???
For Aussie property bears, "denial", is not just a long river in North Africa.....
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Ex BP Golly
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Sydneyite
7 Dec 2016, 03:54 PM
Even if you use your bullshit UE measure - has it been rising or falling???
The ABS statistics are bullshit.
WHAT WOULD EDDIE DO? MAAAATE!
Share a cot with Milton?
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Sydneyite
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Ex BP Golly
7 Dec 2016, 04:22 PM
The ABS statistics are bullshit.
Why don't you answer my question?
For Aussie property bears, "denial", is not just a long river in North Africa.....
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Ex BP Golly
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Sydneyite
7 Dec 2016, 04:30 PM
Why don't you answer my question?
Why don't you use Google.
I'm not your slave.
WHAT WOULD EDDIE DO? MAAAATE!
Share a cot with Milton?
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Mallard
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Sydneyite
7 Dec 2016, 04:30 PM
Why don't you answer my question?
Because if he starts discussing Roy Morgan he knows he will have to explain away the bias that comes from surveying people face to face at home in the daytime.
Collecting desperation.
Ex-Bp Golly April 2 2015. "I see with a slight overshoot -70% [fall in Sydney house prices] as being well within possibility"
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