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Steve Keen Predicts Recession in 2017; Has no doubt that he is right (once again)
Topic Started: 25 Nov 2016, 06:56 PM (5,601 Views)
Simon_S
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Trollie
26 Nov 2016, 05:33 PM
That's ok because we don't need to be.

You however are on limited time.
Really........

26 year of Uninterrupted Growth....
Record level High Asset values........
Record High Debt levels..........
Record low Interest rates...........Umm.....Well not for much longer.....

Oh you have Forever but we have no time.......

AHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHA
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Trollie
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Simon_S
26 Nov 2016, 05:39 PM
Really........

26 year of Uninterrupted Growth....
Record level High Asset values........
Record High Debt levels..........
Record low Interest rates...........Umm.....Well not for much longer.....

Oh you have Forever but we have no time.......

AHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHHA
Great job staying on message timo. You'd do well on fox news.
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Blondie girl
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deluded
26 Nov 2016, 10:26 AM
Well no one should believe a statement like 'recession in 2017' from anyone; Whether that person has been wrong 100%of the time or right 100% of the time.

But if a recession in 2017 might be relevant to potential investment decisions you make this year then you may want to look at the logic behind his statement. And then look at the logic behind those who say no recession in 2017. Then you need to critically asses all the info. After doing this you can formulate your own idea of what may happen in 2017.

So you're stating the obvious and necessary position of not believing people's statements. However, it does need to be said because a lot of people don't seem to think they need to critically assess the logic and data that back up a professors claims. Then we end up with a religious adherence to authority figures who say things that resonate with our deluded views of the world. Like catastrophic anthropocentric global warming for example.

The experts keep stating that the whole barrier reef is dying. So one red headed Queenslander goes to a spot on the reef and finds that it is perfectly healthy. The experts say that she didn't visit the spot where the reef is dying. She says, but you said the whole thing was dying.
Its really about personal financial circumstances not bear/bull stuff.
Newjerk? can you try harder than dig up another person's blog. My first promo was with Billabong and my name in English is modified with a T, am Perth born but also lived in Sydney to make my $$
It's Absolutely Fabulous if it includes brilliant locations, & high calibre tenants..what more does one want? Understand the power of the two "P"" or be financially challenged
Even better when there is family who are property mad and one is born in some entitlements.....Understand that beautiful women are the exhibitionists we crave attention, whilst hot blooded men are the voyeurs ... A stunning woman can command and takes pleasure in being noticed. Seems not too many understand what it means to hold and own props and get threatened by those who do.
Banks are considered to be law abiding and & rather boring places yeah not true . A bank balance sheet will show capital is dwarfed by their liabilities this means when a portions of loans is falling its problems for the bank.
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Admiral Rimmer
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Hi everyone new here :)

I found Keens video very interesting, but predicting what is going to happen is very very difficult and I think sometimes he forgets or understates a number of elements that can come into play.

I do believe we are most likely at the top of the housing cycle, and there is potential headwinds with debt, China, interest rates, capital flight and apartment supply as possible triggers for a recession.

I don't invest in property but do invest in shares. I take a middle approach, invest carefully and only on dips, and always apportion a balance in cash so if the worst does happen I will hopefully be ok.

Not sure there is much else anyone can do...
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Simon_S
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Trollie
26 Nov 2016, 06:15 PM
Great job staying on message timo. You'd do well on fox news.
Yeh..... its hard to argue with Inconvenient facts......

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Trollie
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Simon_S
26 Nov 2016, 10:57 PM
Yeh..... its hard to argue with Inconvenient facts......
Yes you do have a hard time dealing with them don't you.
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Simon_S
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Trollie
27 Nov 2016, 09:30 AM
Yes you do have a hard time dealing with them don't you.
What facts were they again........Oh that's right you haven't presented any as usual.

Quote:
 
26 year of Uninterrupted Growth....
Record level High Asset values........
Record High Debt levels..........
Record low Interest rates...........Umm.....Well not for much longer.....

Oh you have Forever but we have no time.......


Which of these are you struggling with..........

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Trollie
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Simon_S
27 Nov 2016, 10:28 AM
What facts were they again........Oh that's right you haven't presented any as usual.




Which of these are you struggling with..........
I'm not struggling with anything.

Tell us simon, what is it that you see wrong with 26 years worth of uninterrupted growth? Or Asset values which far exceed peoples debts?
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Will
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Hmm, Steve does seem to be mentioning rather out dating info in the Video. Wondering if this was recorded mid year.

He mentioned terms or trade falling and continuing to fall. Yes that would be true if this was March or April. Buts it's November and the commodity prices have had a rather significant rally of late. Indeed terms of trade have risen substantially. In fact the largest ever month on month increase has just been recorded. We're also moving into the big increases in gas exports in 2017. Tourism is up rather solidly over the last year. Our third biggest export - education, is doing quite nicely. And the services sector in Austrliaa keeps going from strength to strength.

We have also had a period of low credit growth since the GFC. It's only been about 7% per year. Aha! You might say. But nominal GDP (not the CPI adjusted one you're used to) rises by about 7% a year, so we could keep this going for a rather long time yet. Even without dropping rates a little further.

Just not seeing a case for a recession on the ground in Brisbane just yet. Whilst I'm not doing especially well myself, I'm seeing stunning amounts of spending and wealth out there.
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Khaderbhai
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Wealthy Suburbanite

Steve Keen has spent a decade calling the imminent recession and 40% property crash...

Steve Keen's bad calls and predictions

01 - In 2006, Keen said we may already be in a recession (we weren't)
02 - In 2006, Keen said Australia's Private Debt to GDP ratio would exceed 160% by 2007 (it still hasn't)
03 - In 2006, Keen said Australia will be in recession long before our Debt/GDP ratio falls (ratio has fallen, no recession yet)
04 - In 2008, Keen said interest rates would be at 2% by 2009, and ZIRP by 2010 (neither happened)
05 - In 2008, Keen said we would have double digit unemployment (up to 20%) (didn't happen)
06 - In 2008, Keen said we would have a severe recession, possibly a depression (didn't happen)
07 - In 2008, Keen said house prices would be down 40% within 'a few years' (wrong)
08 - in 2008, Keen sold his Sydney home at a cyclical low point, just before prices rose 20% (very bad call, Sydney prices are up 50% since then)
09 - In 2009, Keen admitted he was hopelessly wrong on house prices after losing the bet with Rory Robertson (he walked)
10 - In 2010, Keen predicted an accelerating rate of decline in Australian house prices (declines eased shortly after, then prices started rising)
11 - Between 2008 and 2011, Keen claimed the Australian property bubble began in 1964, 1983, and 1988 (when did it begin?)
12 - In 2008, Keen said his biggest regret was not buying property at the start of the property bubble in the 1970s (so it began in 1970s now?)
13 - In 2011, Keen identified 1997 as the start of the 'bubble' (he makes it up as he goes along)
14 - In 2014, Keen said Australia has a housing bubble because of the RBA rate cuts since 2012 (his latest revised start date for 'The Bubble')
15 - In 2011, Keen said Australian house prices would fall 20% by the end of 2013 (not looking good, prices rising)
16 - In 2012, Keen said Australian house prices would rally in 2013 (conflicts with #15)
17 - In 2012, with Australian house prices well above 2008 levels, Keen said his 40% crash call was 'looking healthy' (fail)
18 - In 2015, Keen said Australia is the only country in the world not to have unwound its mortgage debt (in reality, only four countries had unwound their mortgage debt)
Edited by Khaderbhai, 27 Nov 2016, 04:15 PM.
Banks can't repossess your home simply because the market value falls. Australia's Consumer Credit Code says consumers aren't liable for things ordinarily outside their control and can't be held to obligations that could only be met by selling their home. Click for details.

"The truth is that there are no good men, or bad men. It is the deeds that have goodness or badness in them. There are good deeds, and bad deeds. Men are just men."
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