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Our $220 Billion Cheap Debt party is over
Topic Started: 19 Nov 2016, 12:24 PM (4,445 Views)
Simon_S
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Debt party is over: Ultra-cheap credit is coming to an end

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It's over. Governments and big corporations no longer have borrowed money on tap at the lowest interest rates on record.

In a historic shift, one already under way but amplified by the shock election of Donald Trump, investors have dumped the ultimate risk-free asset in finance, an IOU from the US government.
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The yield on US Treasury bonds this week surged, with 30-year bond yields hitting a 2016 high above 3 per cent, after bottoming in July. The change means investors are demanding more to lend their money to governments and corporate giants alike.

Bond yields, which move inversely to prices, have jumped by more in the past, but many experts say this looks like a key turning point. They believe the era of ultra-cheap credit is coming to an end.


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Jimbo
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Simon_S
19 Nov 2016, 12:24 PM
Bond yields, which move inversely to prices, have jumped by more in the past, but many experts say this looks like a key turning point. They believe the era of ultra-cheap credit is coming to an end.

Ride me sideways, who saw this coming?
Matthew, 30 Jan 2016, 09:21 AM Your simplistic view is so flawed it is not worth debating. The current oversupply will be swallowed in 12 months. By the time dumb shits like you realise this prices will already be :?: rising.
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Simon_S
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Jimbo
19 Nov 2016, 12:45 PM
Ride me sideways, who saw this coming?
No one apparently.

Spoke to my sister last night who started a new role in Commercial Finance after leaving one of the Major Banks and she stated that the move in rates has already affected their loan book at the company she's now with. Apparently they have to wear the spread.

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Jimbo
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Simon_S
19 Nov 2016, 01:12 PM
No one apparently.

Yo mean no one who doesn't own a basic pocket calculator or a phone with a calculator app :re:

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Spoke to my sister last night who started a new role in Commercial Finance after leaving one of the Major Banks and she stated that the move in rates has already affected their loan book at the company she's now with. Apparently they have to wear the spread.


Wearing the spread.

Marmite is a spread.

And the Poms are beginning to wear it.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/oct/28/morrisons-puts-marmite-price-up-unilever-fall-pound-brexit

Matthew, 30 Jan 2016, 09:21 AM Your simplistic view is so flawed it is not worth debating. The current oversupply will be swallowed in 12 months. By the time dumb shits like you realise this prices will already be :?: rising.
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Rastus2
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Simon_S
19 Nov 2016, 12:24 PM
It will only end when USD ceases to be a world Reserve Currency... until then, it seems, they can print away, reduce tax dollars, spend all they want, and basically treat it like toilet paper.

All of the people who predicted the USD would crash seem to have been wrong so far... perhaps it can go on forever ??
Shadow - Defrauded his Bank ? 2015 I have 9 different loans and my bank had no idea which ones were personal and which were investment. They had half of them classed incorrectly. When this change came in they asked me to tell them if any personal loans were incorrectly classed as investment, which I did, and they switched them to personal for the lower rate. They also had a couple of investment loans incorrectly classed as personal. They didn't ask me about those. So they stay on the lower rate too. Worked out pretty well. :)
Shadow - 2008 Sydney Median House Price 1.25M by 2014-2015

Shadow : I think this boom has already begun in several cities. My prediction :
Peak of boom: 2014-2015. Sydney Median Price: $1,250,000 Bottom of bust: 2017-2018. Sydney Median Price: $1,100,000

Shadow's Original 2010 House Boom and Crash prediction http://s836.photobucket.com/user/rastus22/media/shady-orig-2010-chart.png.html?sort=3&o=0

Shadow's attempt to edit his 2010 chart in 2015 and replace it with one that does not show a crash in 2013 http://s836.photobucket.com/user/rastus22/media/Screen%20Shot%202015-06-06%20at%207.12.52%20pm_1.png.html
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Simon_S
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Rastus2
19 Nov 2016, 02:14 PM
It will only end when USD ceases to be a world Reserve Currency... until then
What do you think has been going on of late?
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Rufus
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Rastus2
19 Nov 2016, 02:14 PM
It will only end when USD ceases to be a world Reserve Currency... until then, it seems, they can print away, reduce tax dollars, spend all they want, and basically treat it like toilet paper.

All of the people who predicted the USD would crash seem to have been wrong so far... perhaps it can go on forever ??
For currency issuers, the central banks set borrowing rates, not markets.

Simon hasn't yet worked that out, despite being told by many here.
Take risks - if you win you will become wealthy, if you lose you will become wise
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Simon_S
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Rufus
19 Nov 2016, 06:41 PM
For currency issuers, the central banks set borrowing rates, not markets.

Simon hasn't yet worked that out, despite being told by many here.
Yes that's right, that's why mortgage rates are 1.50%

Edited by Simon_S, 19 Nov 2016, 06:48 PM.
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Rufus
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Simon_S
19 Nov 2016, 06:48 PM
Yes that's right, that's why mortgage rates are 1.50%
You really should be concerned by what mystifies you, unless you're plain stupid.
Take risks - if you win you will become wealthy, if you lose you will become wise
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Simon_S
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Rufus
19 Nov 2016, 06:51 PM
You really should be concerned by what mystifies you, unless you're plain stupid.
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For currency issuers, the central banks set borrowing rates, not markets.


Was that not your statement?

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