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Is Donald Trump going to burst Australia's housing bubble?
Topic Started: 11 Nov 2016, 09:42 PM (5,615 Views)
Khaderbhai
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Wealthy Suburbanite

John Frum
13 Nov 2016, 06:20 PM
commodity price growth will signal inflation, which will signal rising mortgage rates, which will signal kaboom
That's one of the reasons why there's a substantial inverse correlation between commodity price growth and Sydney house price growth. When commodity prices are rising strongly, the RBA tends to lift interest rates in response, which has a negative influence on East Coast house price growth. But that will all take a while to flow through, so we're still looking at another year or two of Sydney house price growth.

Perth is a bit different though, since commodity booms tend to directly boost WA jobs and wages.

Anyway, I think we both agree that Trump's forthcoming infrastructure boom will benefit Perth more than Sydney.

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Not only does the U.S import a tiny amount of Iron Ore
US imports of iron ore will increase during the infrastructure boom, and exports will fall. Both factors will increase global commodity prices.

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Concrete numbers please - either real or nominal will do.
Approaching $1M (nominal) by 2021, as per The Mighty Shadow's prophecy.

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Maybe being rich isn't all it's cracked up to be after all.
It's pretty good.
Edited by Khaderbhai, 13 Nov 2016, 07:22 PM.
Banks can't repossess your home simply because the market value falls. Australia's Consumer Credit Code says consumers aren't liable for things ordinarily outside their control and can't be held to obligations that could only be met by selling their home. Click for details.

"The truth is that there are no good men, or bad men. It is the deeds that have goodness or badness in them. There are good deeds, and bad deeds. Men are just men."
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Simon_S
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herbie
13 Nov 2016, 05:11 PM
Frumy 'n Simon would be most disappointed if that woz ta happen ...

'Course Frumy'll be OK - He can just inherit some property from his missus' olds. But I reckon Simon would be f***ed ...
LOL....Didn't think you would grasp this statement:

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if the president-elect resists a lurch towards protectionism
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Blondie girl
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Time will tell.

He might make a wall for Oz?
:bl:

To put it simply, if one is an American citizen regardless of race, colour or creed, the Trump presidency will be very good for most.
If one illegally resides in the US they will find themselves "behind the wall" eventually. Trump and Farade whispering lately and I'm sure immigration was happening on the agenda.

Anyway I love real life irony .
Trump connected with real people and showed them he understood their issues. his opponents never dealt with their issues. So he robbed them behind their backs.

Brilliant really.

We'll l see if he demonstrates this aptitude in his upcoming challenges.
foxbat
13 Nov 2016, 11:44 AM
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-11-12/chicago-man-beaten-angry-black-mob-voting-trump-speaks-out

Want to give me a good kicking :bye: :bye: :bye:

I mean it's only right, i like Trump, Putin likes Trump, but you like Spirtit Cooking.


spirit cooking

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1UYYZA4DxDw


rrrrrright........
The one thing you are correct is you may need to get jealous of Putin,(since you love Trump) he will do more than Obama did.
Simon_S
13 Nov 2016, 07:29 PM
LOL....Didn't think you would grasp this statement:

The qn that everyone needs to ask themselves is will Trump make a good president?
I guess it depends on WHAT that good exactly means and good for whom.

eg its a clear NO that he will be good on environmental issues eg nominate a climate change denier as head of EPA.
Edited by Blondie girl, 13 Nov 2016, 11:04 PM.
Newjerk? can you try harder than dig up another person's blog. My first promo was with Billabong and my name in English is modified with a T, am Perth born but also lived in Sydney to make my $$
It's Absolutely Fabulous if it includes brilliant locations, & high calibre tenants..what more does one want? Understand the power of the two "P"" or be financially challenged
Even better when there is family who are property mad and one is born in some entitlements.....Understand that beautiful women are the exhibitionists we crave attention, whilst hot blooded men are the voyeurs ... A stunning woman can command and takes pleasure in being noticed. Seems not too many understand what it means to hold and own props and get threatened by those who do.
Banks are considered to be law abiding and & rather boring places yeah not true . A bank balance sheet will show capital is dwarfed by their liabilities this means when a portions of loans is falling its problems for the bank.
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Khaderbhai
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Wealthy Suburbanite

Trump hasn't done the goldbugs any favours, with the price of the shiny trinket nosediving to the low 1600s...

Posted Image

Considering the gold price was 1550 in 2009, it has basically gone nowhere for 7 years. Significantly down in real terms.
Banks can't repossess your home simply because the market value falls. Australia's Consumer Credit Code says consumers aren't liable for things ordinarily outside their control and can't be held to obligations that could only be met by selling their home. Click for details.

"The truth is that there are no good men, or bad men. It is the deeds that have goodness or badness in them. There are good deeds, and bad deeds. Men are just men."
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Ex BP Golly
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Khaderbhai
14 Nov 2016, 10:08 AM
Trump hasn't done the goldbugs any favours, with the price of the shiny trinket nosediving to the low 1600s...

Posted Image

Considering the gold price was 1550 in 2009, it has basically gone nowhere for 7 years. Significantly down in real terms.
Yet you wet your pants about iron ore, which is equally irrelevant to house prices.

fact is, today- one ounce of gold is equivalent to 20 tons of iron ore.

Weird.
WHAT WOULD EDDIE DO? MAAAATE!
Share a cot with Milton?
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Khaderbhai
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Wealthy Suburbanite

Ex BP Golly
14 Nov 2016, 10:29 AM
Yet you wet your pants about iron ore, which is equally irrelevant to house prices.

fact is, today- one ounce of gold is equivalent to 20 tons of iron ore.

Weird.
Key difference is that the iron ore price is rising strongly, whereas the gold price is diving.

Gold has had a shocker since the bubble burst in 2011...

Posted Image
Attached to this post:
Attachments: Silly_Goldbugs_Fail_Again.jpg (95.95 KB)
Edited by Khaderbhai, 14 Nov 2016, 10:40 AM.
Banks can't repossess your home simply because the market value falls. Australia's Consumer Credit Code says consumers aren't liable for things ordinarily outside their control and can't be held to obligations that could only be met by selling their home. Click for details.

"The truth is that there are no good men, or bad men. It is the deeds that have goodness or badness in them. There are good deeds, and bad deeds. Men are just men."
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Simon_S
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Blondie girl
13 Nov 2016, 10:50 PM

The qn that everyone needs to ask themselves is will Trump make a good president?
I guess it depends on WHAT that good exactly means and good for whom.

eg its a clear NO that he will be good on environmental issues eg nominate a climate change denier as head of EPA.
Trumps policy objectives are both Protectionist and Isolationist in nature and do not auger well with Current Economic status Quo.

LOL....If you think that who he nominates as the Head of the EPA is of Importance you cannot see the Forrest from the Trees.

There are major Ructions now taking place as the result of his policy Positions behind the scenes with major consequences Geo Politically and also Economically for the Globe.

Trumps election should mark the End of the America as the "Indispensable Nation" and therefore changes the Global Balance of Power as America steps back from the Role it cannot fulfill as the Global Policeman and only Supper Power.

The Myth of the Indispensable Nation

Even Zbigniew Brzezinski has publicly stated as much:

The Broken Chessboard: Brzezinski Gives Up on Empire
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The main architect of Washington’s plan to rule the world has abandoned the scheme and called for the forging of ties with Russia and China. While Zbigniew Brzezinski’s article in The American Interest titled “Towards a Global Realignment” has largely been ignored by the media, it shows that powerful members of the policymaking establishment no longer believe that Washington will prevail in its quest to extent US hegemony across the Middle East and Asia. Brzezinski, who was the main proponent of this idea and who drew up the blueprint for imperial expansion in his 1997 book The Grand Chessboard: American Primacy and Its Geostrategic Imperatives, has done an about-face and called for a dramatic revising of the strategy.


This will Impact Markets plain and simple.


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Rufus
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Simon_S
14 Nov 2016, 11:20 AM
This will Impact Markets plain and simple.
It appears he is going to unwind a lot of consumer protection especially in the finance sector.

Great for Wall St
Take risks - if you win you will become wealthy, if you lose you will become wise
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Matthew
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Ex BP Golly
11 Nov 2016, 11:46 PM
All the bulls on this site have pissed off.
Selling their overleveraged "investments" me thinks.

Me thinks you are tapped in the head.
John Frum
13 Nov 2016, 06:20 PM

No - commodity price growth will signal inflation
Interesting.

In the most recent unparalleled once-in-100-year commodity boom the commodity price growth saw inflation average 2.5% over the 5 years between September 2008 and September 2013 while inflation averaged 3.0% in the preceding 5 year non-commodity boom period.

Interest rates in this period increased from a cash rate of 6% all the way up to 2.5% and house prices increased in most capital cities in Australia.

Meanwhile Sydney off the back of their massive Iron Ore and LNG operations alone rode a wave to a $1m median. How will they cope when they have to place their Iron Ore mines and LNG Processing Plants into care and maintenance?

Basically our most recent experience is the absolute polar opposite of your claim.
Edited by Matthew, 14 Nov 2016, 12:22 PM.
My only hope for my three boys is that they turn out nothing at all like Chris.
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Bardon
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John Frum
13 Nov 2016, 06:20 PM
Secondly, a Trump-triggered infrastructure boom is unlikely to involve big demand for Iron Ore. Not only does the U.S import a tiny amount of Iron Ore (around 1% of the world's total output), as the world's most established consumer society it has a large scrap steel industry - around 90% is recycled. Considering also the fact that the Trump agenda is one of protectionism, it's unlikely that he's going to be doing anything to rollback the crippling tariffs already being placed specifically on Chinese steel imports.

Err the US is the largest importer of steel in the world by a large margin. If they need more then demand goes up drastically. Iron Ore is an input to Steel.
Edited by Bardon, 14 Nov 2016, 12:42 PM.
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