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Is Donald Trump going to burst Australia's housing bubble?
Topic Started: 11 Nov 2016, 09:42 PM (5,616 Views)
Rufus
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foxbat
13 Nov 2016, 11:34 AM
I love Trump,
Of that I have absolutely no doubt.

He's your type of man, and you're his type of girl.
Edited by Rufus, 13 Nov 2016, 11:38 AM.
Take risks - if you win you will become wealthy, if you lose you will become wise
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Foxy
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Zero is coming...

Rufus
13 Nov 2016, 11:35 AM
Of that I have absolutely no doubt.

He's your type of man, and you're his type of girl.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-11-12/chicago-man-beaten-angry-black-mob-voting-trump-speaks-out

Want to give me a good kicking :bye: :bye: :bye:

I mean it's only right, i like Trump, Putin likes Trump, but you like Spirtit Cooking.


spirit cooking

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1UYYZA4DxDw


rrrrrright........
http://www.afr.com/content/dam/images/g/n/2/1/u/8/image.imgtype.afrArticleInline.620x0.png/1456285515560.png
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Khaderbhai
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Wealthy Suburbanite

John Frum
13 Nov 2016, 09:03 AM
So you're either trolling, or going back on you earlier arguments that there's no correlation between the price of commodities and australian property.
Neither.

There's a significantly strong inverse correlation between commodity price growth and Sydney house price growth. This has been demonstrated quite clearly.

However my post was about Perth. Commodity price growth is good for Perth, and Trumpism will drive strong US and global growth and investment, which will dramatically boost commodity prices, as well as driving general house price and asset inflation across much of the world. Perth in particular will benefit.

We'll see the new Perth boom kicking off next year, with a median house price approaching $1M by 2021.

The Perth turnaround is going to shock a lot of bears, just as the current Sydney boom that began in 2012 knocked the stuffing out of people like Crazy Ted, who were convinced a massive crash was imminent. Next year, once again the bears will be standing around dumbfounded, like stunned mullets, wondering what the hell just happened. It's going to be heaps of fun to watch.
Edited by Khaderbhai, 13 Nov 2016, 02:50 PM.
Banks can't repossess your home simply because the market value falls. Australia's Consumer Credit Code says consumers aren't liable for things ordinarily outside their control and can't be held to obligations that could only be met by selling their home. Click for details.

"The truth is that there are no good men, or bad men. It is the deeds that have goodness or badness in them. There are good deeds, and bad deeds. Men are just men."
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Rufus
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Ex BP Golly
13 Nov 2016, 10:18 AM
The 'Donald Dribble Down Effect'.

Cool.
Yes partly, Trump cutting the tax rates for the rich is much the same, and so I believe is the infrastructure spending.

Not much will get down to the level of his grassroots supporters, but it will swamp in for his rich buddies.

Take risks - if you win you will become wealthy, if you lose you will become wise
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Admin
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Administrator

Reagan guru says Trump will usher in new boom era
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herbie
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Admin
13 Nov 2016, 05:06 PM
Frumy 'n Simon would be most disappointed if that woz ta happen ...

'Course Frumy'll be OK - He can just inherit some property from his missus' olds. But I reckon Simon would be f***ed ...
Edited by herbie, 13 Nov 2016, 05:25 PM.
A Professional Demographer to an amateur demographer: "negative natural increase will never outweigh the positive net migration"
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b_b
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Admin
13 Nov 2016, 05:06 PM
Monetarism and Austrian economics is great in theory and wonderful for the ideologues. But for practical outcomes, everyone comes back to Keynes. It’s fun watching the Right try to rationalise it.
Edited by b_b, 13 Nov 2016, 06:10 PM.
(S – I) + (T - G) + (M - X) = 0
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John Frum
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Khaderbhai
13 Nov 2016, 02:46 PM
Commodity price growth is good for Perth, and Trumpism will drive strong US and global growth and investment, which will dramatically boost commodity prices, as well as driving general house price and asset inflation across much of the world. Perth in particular will benefit.


No - commodity price growth will signal inflation, which will signal rising mortgage rates, which will signal kaboom for highly leveraged property investors. This is my narrative from 3 years ago and I'm sticking to it, despite the fact that it hasn't materialised at the pace I originally forecast. Although that appears to be changing now.

As I said previously though, I doubt we'll even be lucky enough to get the benefits of a sustained rise in commodity prices, just the indignity of rising interest rates courtesy of rising U.S bond yields and a ballooning risk curve.

For a start, the current boom in commodity prices has zero to do with demand and everything to do with cheap money looking for a home, it's a virtually identical CPC-orchestrated relaxation of margin lending rules that triggered the stock market boom from last year, and likely to suffer a similar fate.

Secondly, a Trump-triggered infrastructure boom is unlikely to involve big demand for Iron Ore. Not only does the U.S import a tiny amount of Iron Ore (around 1% of the world's total output), as the world's most established consumer society it has a large scrap steel industry - around 90% is recycled. Considering also the fact that the Trump agenda is one of protectionism, it's unlikely that he's going to be doing anything to rollback the crippling tariffs already being placed specifically on Chinese steel imports.

Quote:
 
We'll see the new Perth boom kicking off next year, with a median house price approaching $1M by 2021.


As discussed here before these types of calls are vague and meaningless. Concrete numbers please - either real or nominal will do.

Quote:
 
The Perth turnaround is going to shock a lot of bears, just as the current Sydney boom that began in 2012 knocked the stuffing out of people like Crazy Ted, who were convinced a massive crash was imminent. Next year, once again the bears will be standing around dumbfounded, like stunned mullets, wondering what the hell just happened. It's going to be heaps of fun to watch.


It's sweet that an investment maverick such as yourself who's managed to accumulate such stupendous wealth over the last decade or so still gets their jollies from goading hapless tinfoil hatters on an anonymous chat forum. Maybe being rich isn't all it's cracked up to be after all.



Edited by John Frum, 13 Nov 2016, 06:34 PM.
"It were not best that we should all think alike; it is difference of opinion that makes horse races." - Mark Twain on why he avoids discussing house prices over at MacroBusiness.
"Buy land, they're not making any more of it." - Georgist Land Tax proponent Mark Twain laughing in his grave at humourless idiots like skamy that continually use this quip to justify housing bubbles.
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Jon Snow
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John Frum
13 Nov 2016, 06:20 PM

It's sweet that an investment maverick such as yourself who's managed to accumulate such stupendous wealth over the last decade or so still gets their jollies from goading hapless tinfoil hatters on an anonymous chat forum. Maybe being rich isn't all it's cracked up to be after all.


Those who accumulate wealth via forces outside of their control (government created property boom for e.g.) rarely enjoy their gains. They usually live in terror that it will be taken away from them by forces outside of their control (black swan events). Those who create wealth from nothing, through the application of invention or innovation, tend to be more secure in their wealth as they know they can create it again.
Speak when you are angry and you will make the best speech you will ever regret.
Ambrose Bierce
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John Frum
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Rufus
13 Nov 2016, 11:35 AM
Of that I have absolutely no doubt.

He's your type of man, and you're his type of girl.
:D :lol
Jon Snow
13 Nov 2016, 06:34 PM
Those who accumulate wealth via forces outside of their control (government created property boom for e.g.) rarely enjoy their gains. They usually live in terror that it will be taken away from them by forces outside of their control (black swan events). Those who create wealth from nothing, through the application of invention or innovation, tend to be more secure in their wealth as they know they can create it again.
That makes a lot of sense. I guess also people who made their $ through application of invention or innovation would be out inventing or innovating, rather than posting over a dozen times a day in on a small forum.

Edited by John Frum, 13 Nov 2016, 06:43 PM.
"It were not best that we should all think alike; it is difference of opinion that makes horse races." - Mark Twain on why he avoids discussing house prices over at MacroBusiness.
"Buy land, they're not making any more of it." - Georgist Land Tax proponent Mark Twain laughing in his grave at humourless idiots like skamy that continually use this quip to justify housing bubbles.
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