Only a complete buffoon would think that was an answer - are you a complete buffoon?
What do you think could spark a house price collapse Simon, and in which cities do you see that as most likely?
Quote:
Over the past 150 years, Australia has experienced two macroeconomic depressions, both of which coincided with worldwide depressions.1 The first of these was in the 1890s and the second in the 1930s. These were also times of financial distress both domestically and in the rest of the world. For Australia there were many similarities across both depressions
What part of that quote do you not understand.........
A loss of confidence by people considering taking on a major, 20 plus year financial commitment?
Even if that happened it only effects FHBs primarily - as we have seen, investors step and in fill that gap in the market with gusto. Also, if it started to look like a problem all it takes is the return of FHB grants, stamp duty concessions etc from the states and away we go again.
For Aussie property bears, "denial", is not just a long river in North Africa.....
What part of that quote do you not understand.........
The quote is clear in stating that were depressions in the 1890s and the 1930s - so what? You are being asked for your opinion on what factors TODAY you believe make a housing collapse & depression imminent? And how / where will it start?
Even if that happened it only effects FHBs primarily - as we have seen, investors step and in fill that gap in the market with gusto. Also, if it started to look like a problem all it takes is the return of FHB grants, stamp duty concessions etc from the states and away we go again.
Actually it's getting harder for investors to buy more.
That's due to certain MP adjustments that include servicing all existing home loans at the assessment rate and not the rate being paid. I'm seeing investors being knocked back by their banks when they can easily afford all of their loans, especially when they have them on interest only. But the new regime is those loans have to service as P&I at 7.4% or whatever that banks assessment rate is.
I don't know where the limits is, but we must be approaching it in Sydney, although the limits don't apply to foreign buyers sourcing finance elsewhere.
Simon_S
8 Nov 2016, 06:24 PM
No that's your job.......
What was the question again?
What do you think could spark a house price collapse Simon, and in which cities do you see that as most likely?
You don't have the intelligence to take a shot at it do you.
The last three paragraphs of the article (namely tha conclusion/summary - if ya please?) seem reasonable enuff ta me:
"“Nationwide price falls are unlikely until the RBA starts to raise interest rates again and this is unlikely before 2018 at which point we are likely to see a 5% or so pullback in property prices as was seen in the 2009 and 2011 down cycles,” he says, adding that “anything worse would likely require much higher interest rates or recession both of which are unlikely”.
However, he warns that dangerous to generalise when it comes to the housing market, suggesting that “Sydney and Melbourne, having seen the biggest gains, are more at risk and so could fall 5-10% around 2018”.
That warning also extends to the apartment markets in both of those cities, acknowledging that prices in parts of Sydney and Melbourne could fall by 15-20% as investor interest fades as rental yields fall."
Whole article seems reasonable enuff ta me as it happens - No biggy; Given I reckon there's a general recognition that housing prices can't simply be relied on ta ALWAYS go up ...
A Professional Demographer to an amateur demographer:"negative natural increase will never outweigh the positive net migration"
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