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First home buyers flee market; Down 40% this year.
Topic Started: 5 Nov 2016, 01:06 AM (3,250 Views)
Matthew
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Ex BP Golly
5 Nov 2016, 06:39 AM
You think everyone is involved in a conspiracy to trick property investors into worrying about their investment decisions?

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So participation rates are higher March 2004. Similar to March 2000.

Given markets didn't crash in either 2000 or 2004, what makes you think that this new incarnation of the same thing experienced in the past will generate a different outcome?
Edited by Matthew, 7 Nov 2016, 12:26 PM.
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Ex BP Golly
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Matthew
7 Nov 2016, 12:26 PM
So participation rates are higher March 2004. Similar to March 2000.

Given markets didn't crash in either 2000 or 2004, what makes you think that this new incarnation of the same thing experienced in the past will generate a different outcome?
The first crash in participation was fear, this one, I think, is exhaustion.


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Matthew
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Ex BP Golly
8 Nov 2016, 08:07 AM
The first crash in participation was fear, this one, I think, is exhaustion.

It looks to me that around 18% - 20% is about the 15 year average in that chart, maybe a little more.

The current rate of around 14% is not that far from the long term average.

My take on it at the moment is that it is not national house prices (excluding Sydney) or availability of credit that is subduing the FHB activity (and wider market for that matter). Rather it is the employment uncertainty in the current labour markets. At the end of the day the young and inexperienced are the first cut in any reorganisation. A more buoyant labour market will see FHB activity rise.

We advertised a 27.5 hour per week warehouse role in Adelaide yesterday to cater for a contract win. Currently we have 794 applications. 5 years ago we would have had 5.

My only hope for my three boys is that they turn out nothing at all like Chris.
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Rastus2
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Matthew
8 Nov 2016, 12:47 PM

My take on it at the moment is that it is not national house prices (excluding Sydney) or availability of credit that is subduing the FHB activity (and wider market for that matter). Rather it is the employment uncertainty in the current labour markets. At the end of the day the young and inexperienced are the first cut in any reorganisation. A more buoyant labour market will see FHB activity rise.

We advertised a 27.5 hour per week warehouse role in Adelaide yesterday to cater for a contract win. Currently we have 794 applications. 5 years ago we would have had 5.

I could not agree more...

We are swamped by applicants any time we offer a job, the more hours it offers, the more applicants. 5 years ago, it was a simple matter to go through the dozen or so applicants, now it is quite an effort to go through the huge numbers.
Shadow - Defrauded his Bank ? 2015 I have 9 different loans and my bank had no idea which ones were personal and which were investment. They had half of them classed incorrectly. When this change came in they asked me to tell them if any personal loans were incorrectly classed as investment, which I did, and they switched them to personal for the lower rate. They also had a couple of investment loans incorrectly classed as personal. They didn't ask me about those. So they stay on the lower rate too. Worked out pretty well. :)
Shadow - 2008 Sydney Median House Price 1.25M by 2014-2015

Shadow : I think this boom has already begun in several cities. My prediction :
Peak of boom: 2014-2015. Sydney Median Price: $1,250,000 Bottom of bust: 2017-2018. Sydney Median Price: $1,100,000

Shadow's Original 2010 House Boom and Crash prediction http://s836.photobucket.com/user/rastus22/media/shady-orig-2010-chart.png.html?sort=3&o=0

Shadow's attempt to edit his 2010 chart in 2015 and replace it with one that does not show a crash in 2013 http://s836.photobucket.com/user/rastus22/media/Screen%20Shot%202015-06-06%20at%207.12.52%20pm_1.png.html
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Matthew
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Rastus2
8 Nov 2016, 01:14 PM

I could not agree more...

We are swamped by applicants any time we offer a job, the more hours it offers, the more applicants. 5 years ago, it was a simple matter to go through the dozen or so applicants, now it is quite an effort to go through the huge numbers.
10 years ago we would not have gotten a single applicant for a part time warehouse role and would have worked with someone like Sarina Russo to get the best of the long term unemployed off the dole.

Today we are sitting now 1,146 applicants. The ad was pulled this morning, 5 years ago we would have been readvertising after 3 weeks of nothing.

So when people are unsure of their employment, why would they buy a house? Does not make sense.

However they will want to live in a house. Nobody wants to sleep in the sand dunes.

So investors will step in to cater for the rental demand. Simple.
My only hope for my three boys is that they turn out nothing at all like Chris.
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Ex BP Golly
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Matthew
8 Nov 2016, 12:47 PM
It looks to me that around 18% - 20% is about the 15 year average in that chart, maybe a little more.

The current rate of around 14% is not that far from the long term average.

My take on it at the moment is that it is not national house prices (excluding Sydney) or availability of credit that is subduing the FHB activity (and wider market for that matter). Rather it is the employment uncertainty in the current labour markets. At the end of the day the young and inexperienced are the first cut in any reorganisation. A more buoyant labour market will see FHB activity rise.

We advertised a 27.5 hour per week warehouse role in Adelaide yesterday to cater for a contract win. Currently we have 794 applications. 5 years ago we would have had 5.
Interesting spin!

However, Prior to GFC the average is very definitely 22% +/- 1%.

Post gfc, even with massive gov intervention, the average is 17%.

14% doesn't look that good.

Edited by Ex BP Golly, 8 Nov 2016, 02:54 PM.
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Sydneyite
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Ex BP Golly
8 Nov 2016, 02:38 PM
Interesting spin!

However, Prior to GFC the average is very definitely 22% +/- 1%.

Post gfc, even with massive gov intervention, the average is 17%.

14% doesn't look that good.
You are spinning as well! Before 2000, when the Commonwealth funded FHB grant was first introduced (as a part of the GST compensation package), the FHB numbers also averaged much lower than in the 2000 - 2007 period.
Edited by Sydneyite, 8 Nov 2016, 03:04 PM.
For Aussie property bears, "denial", is not just a long river in North Africa.....
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Rufus
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Sydneyite
8 Nov 2016, 03:03 PM
You are spinning as well! Before 2000, when the Commonwealth funded FHB grant was first introduced (as a part of the GST compensation package), the FHB numbers also averaged much lower than in the 2000 - 2007 period.
Not many would be aware that in the seventies the federal government had a savings scheme where they matched dollar for dollar up to $1500 in savings that were built up over 3 years in an normal savings account.

That probably doesn't seem much now, but with some homes in Brisbane selling for less than $20,000 and Sydney maybe $35,000 it was quite a lot.
For some buyers it was more than 10% of the purchase price of a house.

It was far more generous than the current FHOG Scheme, although only good savers ever received it.
Take risks - if you win you will become wealthy, if you lose you will become wise
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Matthew
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Ex BP Golly
8 Nov 2016, 02:38 PM
Interesting spin!

However, Prior to GFC the average is very definitely 22% +/- 1%.

Post gfc, even with massive gov intervention, the average is 17%.

14% doesn't look that good.
As I have always said though these people will still want to live in houses. So if the FHB's elect to rent longer in a market of growing population all you see is more investor activity to take advantage of the demand. When the FHB's return, and they will, then the investor activity will reduce. It is pretty simple.

As I said a couple of posts ago if I was a 25 - 28 year old and didn't have a rock solid iron clad job I would probably be sitting out now accumulating a bigger deposit, the rental market outside of Sydney is fine and prices are unlikely to boom.

It is the people who have stable employment, solid incomes and are sitting out hoping for a crash that I shake my head at. History shows crashes don't happen that often after all.
My only hope for my three boys is that they turn out nothing at all like Chris.
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Ex BP Golly
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Sydneyite
8 Nov 2016, 03:03 PM
You are spinning as well! Before 2000, when the Commonwealth funded FHB grant was first introduced (as a part of the GST compensation package), the FHB numbers also averaged much lower than in the 2000 - 2007 period.
Got a chart?
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