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The Red Dragon Effect: China’s impact on housing
Topic Started: 29 Oct 2016, 01:57 PM (5,379 Views)
Rastus2
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Khaderbhai
30 Oct 2016, 05:51 PM
Everything really.

So everything in that story is dead wrong ? :re:

Care to list the errors in it ? I bet not.


His conclusion does not name a specific date... in the same way Chris Joye does not nominate a specific date... it simply says if there is oversupply, prices will go down.


The conclusion (below) seems reasonable enough...

"Huge real (primary residence) oversupply will significantly impact house prices in Australia in future. In the case of market slowdown, oversupply will flood the market driving prices down. "
Shadow - Defrauded his Bank ? 2015 I have 9 different loans and my bank had no idea which ones were personal and which were investment. They had half of them classed incorrectly. When this change came in they asked me to tell them if any personal loans were incorrectly classed as investment, which I did, and they switched them to personal for the lower rate. They also had a couple of investment loans incorrectly classed as personal. They didn't ask me about those. So they stay on the lower rate too. Worked out pretty well. :)
Shadow - 2008 Sydney Median House Price 1.25M by 2014-2015

Shadow : I think this boom has already begun in several cities. My prediction :
Peak of boom: 2014-2015. Sydney Median Price: $1,250,000 Bottom of bust: 2017-2018. Sydney Median Price: $1,100,000

Shadow's Original 2010 House Boom and Crash prediction http://s836.photobucket.com/user/rastus22/media/shady-orig-2010-chart.png.html?sort=3&o=0

Shadow's attempt to edit his 2010 chart in 2015 and replace it with one that does not show a crash in 2013 http://s836.photobucket.com/user/rastus22/media/Screen%20Shot%202015-06-06%20at%207.12.52%20pm_1.png.html
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Khaderbhai
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Rastus2
30 Oct 2016, 07:23 PM
So everything in that story is dead wrong ? :re:
All Raveswei's predictions have been wrong.
Rastus2
30 Oct 2016, 07:23 PM
The conclusion (below) seems reasonable enough...

In the case of market slowdown, oversupply will flood the market driving prices down. "
Sydney market slowed from mid 2010 to mid 2012. Also late 2015 to early 2016. But no big "flood" - just a normal cyclical correction.
Edited by Khaderbhai, 30 Oct 2016, 07:34 PM.
Banks can't repossess your home simply because the market value falls. Australia's Consumer Credit Code says consumers aren't liable for things ordinarily outside their control and can't be held to obligations that could only be met by selling their home. Click for details.

"The truth is that there are no good men, or bad men. It is the deeds that have goodness or badness in them. There are good deeds, and bad deeds. Men are just men."
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Rastus2
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Khaderbhai
30 Oct 2016, 07:30 PM
All Raveswei's predictions have been wrong.

Sydney market slowed from mid 2010 to mid 2012. Also late 2015 to early 2016. But no big "flood" - just a normal cyclical correction.

where, exactly, in that article does it state the date the market would crash ?

Point it out.
Shadow - Defrauded his Bank ? 2015 I have 9 different loans and my bank had no idea which ones were personal and which were investment. They had half of them classed incorrectly. When this change came in they asked me to tell them if any personal loans were incorrectly classed as investment, which I did, and they switched them to personal for the lower rate. They also had a couple of investment loans incorrectly classed as personal. They didn't ask me about those. So they stay on the lower rate too. Worked out pretty well. :)
Shadow - 2008 Sydney Median House Price 1.25M by 2014-2015

Shadow : I think this boom has already begun in several cities. My prediction :
Peak of boom: 2014-2015. Sydney Median Price: $1,250,000 Bottom of bust: 2017-2018. Sydney Median Price: $1,100,000

Shadow's Original 2010 House Boom and Crash prediction http://s836.photobucket.com/user/rastus22/media/shady-orig-2010-chart.png.html?sort=3&o=0

Shadow's attempt to edit his 2010 chart in 2015 and replace it with one that does not show a crash in 2013 http://s836.photobucket.com/user/rastus22/media/Screen%20Shot%202015-06-06%20at%207.12.52%20pm_1.png.html
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Ex BP Golly
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Thank God government got rid of the clownish National Housing Supply Council that trotted out their bogus claims there was a massive undersupply.



Edited by Ex BP Golly, 31 Oct 2016, 06:24 AM.
WHAT WOULD EDDIE DO? MAAAATE!
Share a cot with Milton?
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Khaderbhai
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Rastus2
30 Oct 2016, 09:18 PM
where, exactly, in that article does it state the date the market would crash ?

Point it out.
First, point out where in the article it states the moon is made of cheese?
Banks can't repossess your home simply because the market value falls. Australia's Consumer Credit Code says consumers aren't liable for things ordinarily outside their control and can't be held to obligations that could only be met by selling their home. Click for details.

"The truth is that there are no good men, or bad men. It is the deeds that have goodness or badness in them. There are good deeds, and bad deeds. Men are just men."
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Rastus2
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Khaderbhai
31 Oct 2016, 07:37 AM
First, point out where in the article it states the moon is made of cheese?
How about we stick to your claims instead of the moon..


You pointed out specific years as though the article cited them in a prediction... now you refuse to indicate where in the article those years claim the big flood would happen...
"Sydney market slowed from mid 2010 to mid 2012. Also late 2015 to early 2016. But no big "flood" - just a normal cyclical correction."

Indeed, you claimed that everything in that story is dead wrong... if you can't list the things that are dead wrong in the article, then it is yourself who is blindsided, and dead wrong.

Perhaps you should put aside your anger issue with the author and focus on the article itself.... what parts, exactly, are 'dead wrong' ?


Shadow - Defrauded his Bank ? 2015 I have 9 different loans and my bank had no idea which ones were personal and which were investment. They had half of them classed incorrectly. When this change came in they asked me to tell them if any personal loans were incorrectly classed as investment, which I did, and they switched them to personal for the lower rate. They also had a couple of investment loans incorrectly classed as personal. They didn't ask me about those. So they stay on the lower rate too. Worked out pretty well. :)
Shadow - 2008 Sydney Median House Price 1.25M by 2014-2015

Shadow : I think this boom has already begun in several cities. My prediction :
Peak of boom: 2014-2015. Sydney Median Price: $1,250,000 Bottom of bust: 2017-2018. Sydney Median Price: $1,100,000

Shadow's Original 2010 House Boom and Crash prediction http://s836.photobucket.com/user/rastus22/media/shady-orig-2010-chart.png.html?sort=3&o=0

Shadow's attempt to edit his 2010 chart in 2015 and replace it with one that does not show a crash in 2013 http://s836.photobucket.com/user/rastus22/media/Screen%20Shot%202015-06-06%20at%207.12.52%20pm_1.png.html
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Khaderbhai
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Wealthy Suburbanite

Rastus2
30 Oct 2016, 09:18 PM
where, exactly, in that article does it state the date the market would crash ?

Point it out.
How about we stick to my claims instead of your inventions.
Banks can't repossess your home simply because the market value falls. Australia's Consumer Credit Code says consumers aren't liable for things ordinarily outside their control and can't be held to obligations that could only be met by selling their home. Click for details.

"The truth is that there are no good men, or bad men. It is the deeds that have goodness or badness in them. There are good deeds, and bad deeds. Men are just men."
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Rastus2
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Khaderbhai
31 Oct 2016, 09:34 AM
How about we stick to my claims instead of your inventions.

sure,
you were obviously just pointing out random facts instead of attempting to correct the article when you said "Sydney market slowed from mid 2010 to mid 2012. Also late 2015 to early 2016. But no big "flood" - just a normal cyclical correction."

I saw no mention of what dates the big flood was predicted to happen ... did you ?

so your claim that everything in that article is dead wrong.... everything... (I was not talking about the poster on this forum's predictions, I was asking specifically about that article).

Why don't you start listing some of the dead wrong things in the article, if you can...

Shadow - Defrauded his Bank ? 2015 I have 9 different loans and my bank had no idea which ones were personal and which were investment. They had half of them classed incorrectly. When this change came in they asked me to tell them if any personal loans were incorrectly classed as investment, which I did, and they switched them to personal for the lower rate. They also had a couple of investment loans incorrectly classed as personal. They didn't ask me about those. So they stay on the lower rate too. Worked out pretty well. :)
Shadow - 2008 Sydney Median House Price 1.25M by 2014-2015

Shadow : I think this boom has already begun in several cities. My prediction :
Peak of boom: 2014-2015. Sydney Median Price: $1,250,000 Bottom of bust: 2017-2018. Sydney Median Price: $1,100,000

Shadow's Original 2010 House Boom and Crash prediction http://s836.photobucket.com/user/rastus22/media/shady-orig-2010-chart.png.html?sort=3&o=0

Shadow's attempt to edit his 2010 chart in 2015 and replace it with one that does not show a crash in 2013 http://s836.photobucket.com/user/rastus22/media/Screen%20Shot%202015-06-06%20at%207.12.52%20pm_1.png.html
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Khaderbhai
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Wealthy Suburbanite

Rastus2
31 Oct 2016, 11:46 AM
I saw no mention of what dates the big flood was predicted to happen
He said it would occur when the market slowed down. The subsequent market slowdowns were in 2011 and 2015.
Banks can't repossess your home simply because the market value falls. Australia's Consumer Credit Code says consumers aren't liable for things ordinarily outside their control and can't be held to obligations that could only be met by selling their home. Click for details.

"The truth is that there are no good men, or bad men. It is the deeds that have goodness or badness in them. There are good deeds, and bad deeds. Men are just men."
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Rastus2
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Khaderbhai
31 Oct 2016, 12:57 PM
He said it would occur when the market slowed down. The subsequent market slowdowns were in 2011 and 2015.
right, so that is 1 thing you have managed to cite in the entire article which you claim all completely wrong...


Here is his conclusion... why don't you highlight the bit where it claims the market slowdown would immediately result in that ?

(If you can).



CONCLUSION

By looking at the results we may see that Australia is facing huge oversupply of residential dwellings. Since 1995, there were only two years of a construction undersupply (2008 and 2009) driven by huge immigration numbers. During the years before that, Australia was building the similar number of new homes while immigration and population increase was half or even third of the 2008 or 2009 levels. After 15 years of construction, almost 950 000 dwellings that now do not have primary resident were built. That is around 10% of total housing stock. This means that around 38% of newly constructed dwellings during this period were oversupply (not used as primary resident or holiday home).
It may look very strange that such a huge oversupply is not easily visible. The reason for this, in our opinion, is the fact that market demand for housing was huge and in large part driven by investors interested in capital gain. Similar market behaviour was recorded in some parts of USA and Europe recently. In all these places, during the period before market crush, many reports were warning of a housing shortage, just to discover huge real oversupply after bubble bursted.

This is an estimated number, intentionally biased toward the undersupply side and as such, it is good enough to shows that there is significant real oversupply of homes in Australia. Situation in a particular city may be slightly different but after taking into account that combined capital city population did not grow faster than general population we may say that estimates are good for most of the cities. Some of capital cities (Sydney, Hobart, and Adelaide) had slower that the average population growth. Same cities also recorded lower construction activity and slightly larger mortality rates among older population. In addition, Sydney and Melbourne population increase was mostly driven by student population that demands less housing than natural increase or other immigrants. Some of the areas with high construction activity (Gold Coast, SE and North Queensland, Mandurah) were also fastest population growing areas in Australia.

Huge real (primary residence) oversupply will significantly impact house prices in Australia in future. In the case of market slowdown, oversupply will flood the market driving prices down.
Shadow - Defrauded his Bank ? 2015 I have 9 different loans and my bank had no idea which ones were personal and which were investment. They had half of them classed incorrectly. When this change came in they asked me to tell them if any personal loans were incorrectly classed as investment, which I did, and they switched them to personal for the lower rate. They also had a couple of investment loans incorrectly classed as personal. They didn't ask me about those. So they stay on the lower rate too. Worked out pretty well. :)
Shadow - 2008 Sydney Median House Price 1.25M by 2014-2015

Shadow : I think this boom has already begun in several cities. My prediction :
Peak of boom: 2014-2015. Sydney Median Price: $1,250,000 Bottom of bust: 2017-2018. Sydney Median Price: $1,100,000

Shadow's Original 2010 House Boom and Crash prediction http://s836.photobucket.com/user/rastus22/media/shady-orig-2010-chart.png.html?sort=3&o=0

Shadow's attempt to edit his 2010 chart in 2015 and replace it with one that does not show a crash in 2013 http://s836.photobucket.com/user/rastus22/media/Screen%20Shot%202015-06-06%20at%207.12.52%20pm_1.png.html
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