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Just sold in Perth. Hold or buy now?
Topic Started: 23 Oct 2016, 09:36 PM (5,256 Views)
John Frum
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Jimbo
25 Oct 2016, 01:13 AM
Public wanking comes to APF.

It's embarrassing, but at the same time telling.

A few years ago the sock puppets doing the rounds here were all goldbug doomer types warning of impending house price crash/hyperinflation (and, just as i predicted, the property market in sydney subsequently boomed), now they're all cashed up sellers concerned that they sold at the wrong time.

Regardless of this though it's sad that the quality of the discussion round here has really tapered off in the last 6-9 months.
Edited by John Frum, 25 Oct 2016, 07:51 AM.
"It were not best that we should all think alike; it is difference of opinion that makes horse races." - Mark Twain on why he avoids discussing house prices over at MacroBusiness.
"Buy land, they're not making any more of it." - Georgist Land Tax proponent Mark Twain laughing in his grave at humourless idiots like skamy that continually use this quip to justify housing bubbles.
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Rufus
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John Frum
25 Oct 2016, 07:49 AM

It's embarrassing, but at the same time telling.

A few years ago the sock puppets doing the rounds here were all goldbug doomer types warning of impending house price crash/hyperinflation (and, just as i predicted, the property market in sydney subsequently boomed), now they're all cashed up sellers concerned that they sold at the wrong time.

Regardless of this though it's sad that the quality of the discussion round here has really tapered off in the last 6-9 months.
Perhaps they aren't sock puppets.

A few years ago a lot of people were warning of a house price crash and hyperinflation, as for those who claim to have sold and are cashed up, well that includes Jimbo.

Agree on the standard of debate though, it's appalling. I suspect that a lot of bulls are now quite confident of the future and can't be bothered, and the smarter bears have bought and no longer care what happens to house prices.

Only dicks like you and I are left John.
Take risks - if you win you will become wealthy, if you lose you will become wise
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John Frum
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Rufus
25 Oct 2016, 08:16 AM
Perhaps they aren't sock puppets.

A few years ago a lot of people were warning of a house price crash and hyperinflation, as for those who claim to have sold and are cashed up, well that includes Jimbo.

Agree on the standard of debate though, it's appalling. I suspect that a lot of bulls are now quite confident of the future and can't be bothered, and the smarter bears have bought and no longer care what happens to house prices.

Only dicks like you and I are left John.

It's cute that you ignore most of my post as usual to spruik a win for the people who bought.

But it's cool because I know enough mortgage brokers to understand the psychology of their thinking, and they in turn understand the thinking of a Kochie watching white picket fence mouzealots.
"It were not best that we should all think alike; it is difference of opinion that makes horse races." - Mark Twain on why he avoids discussing house prices over at MacroBusiness.
"Buy land, they're not making any more of it." - Georgist Land Tax proponent Mark Twain laughing in his grave at humourless idiots like skamy that continually use this quip to justify housing bubbles.
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Khaderbhai
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Wealthy Suburbanite

John Frum
25 Oct 2016, 07:49 AM
just as i predicted, the property market in sydney subsequently boomed
LOL. By the time you 'predicted' the boom in August 2014, Sydney had already been booming for two years and the median house price was already getting close to $1M.

You predicted a continuation of that growth for another 12 months, followed by a crash in late 2015...

http://australianpropertyforum.com/single/?p=8499331&t=10116371

"For the next 12 months I predict that prices will continue to rise while the macro signs (commodity prices, employment, ToT) continue to deteriorate. I expect foreign investment in the sydney market to increase especially from China. I expect FHB number to continue to dwindle. I expect household debt rates to continue to outstrip GDP growth. I expect the median Sydney house price to top 1 mil sometime round the middle of next year. I then expect an 'event' to trigger a 'rush for the exits', a systemic retail banking crisis, and a property crash in the latter half of 2015 followed by a recession spilling over to 3-4 quarters of negative GDP numbers." -- John Frum, August 2014
Edited by Khaderbhai, 25 Oct 2016, 09:14 AM.
Banks can't repossess your home simply because the market value falls. Australia's Consumer Credit Code says consumers aren't liable for things ordinarily outside their control and can't be held to obligations that could only be met by selling their home. Click for details.

"The truth is that there are no good men, or bad men. It is the deeds that have goodness or badness in them. There are good deeds, and bad deeds. Men are just men."
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Rufus
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John Frum
25 Oct 2016, 09:02 AM

It's cute that you ignore most of my post as usual to spruik a win for the people who bought.

But it's cool because I know enough mortgage brokers to understand the psychology of their thinking, and they in turn understand the thinking of a Kochie watching white picket fence mouzealots.
Who is Kochie?
Take risks - if you win you will become wealthy, if you lose you will become wise
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Blondie girl
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Rufus
25 Oct 2016, 09:12 AM
Who is Kochie?
He is guru of Sunrise, he knows everything. :wak:
Madtaj
23 Oct 2016, 09:51 PM
Hi,

We are a family of four who have just sold our property in Perth Southern Suburbs.

We have been looking at buying for sometime but cannot find the right property at present.

My concerns are (maybe it is a spring rush) but everything in our area has been selling quite quickly over past 4 weeks. I am not sure is this is due to the new train station which is due to open in around 4 months or some other factors?

We will be renting for a little while - question is, do we buy something we are not 100% happy with because we are fearful of prices rising in our area due to infrastructure or do we have time to sit back and wait? We have a tidy sum of money to put down on new property when we find the right one.

I know these are all crystal ball sort of questions - but need to hear some thoughts on this one.

Cheers.
Simple.
Buy what you can afford and what you are prepared in live in.
dachopper
25 Oct 2016, 01:23 AM
Hah,

That makes alot of sense,

I just paid around 400K for a unit in this suburb, and I'm raking in over 3 Grand a month on average.

Heaps of reason to be stressed.

At least it indicates it's probably still a buyers market.
Its still buyers market.
Yes.
Hey
can we please stay on topic and try to be nice to new posters when they post. I know bull and bear like to play with each other but I would hate for new posters to be detracted by crap.
Edited by Blondie girl, 25 Oct 2016, 02:14 PM.
Newjerk? can you try harder than dig up another person's blog. My first promo was with Billabong and my name in English is modified with a T, am Perth born but also lived in Sydney to make my $$
It's Absolutely Fabulous if it includes brilliant locations, & high calibre tenants..what more does one want? Understand the power of the two "P"" or be financially challenged
Even better when there is family who are property mad and one is born in some entitlements.....Understand that beautiful women are the exhibitionists we crave attention, whilst hot blooded men are the voyeurs ... A stunning woman can command and takes pleasure in being noticed. Seems not too many understand what it means to hold and own props and get threatened by those who do.
Banks are considered to be law abiding and & rather boring places yeah not true . A bank balance sheet will show capital is dwarfed by their liabilities this means when a portions of loans is falling its problems for the bank.
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dachopper
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Jimbo
25 Oct 2016, 01:28 AM
Shit, that is a very good return considering that you can rent in Nedlands for less than $800 per week.

Do you want to re-visit your numbers and review your post?

You wouldn't want to look foolish would you?
Who said I was renting it... Just checked my last two statements
Confirmed

October: 1668+532+970
November: 1012+1143+1014

You can invest and follow the flock

or you can bloody evolve, get with the times, and figure out how to invest to make a lot more money

Like Uber drivers
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Perthite
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Dont buy until population growth resumes. im ready and willing but it really stinks up the outlook.
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Black Panther
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Perth prices arent going to fall much further or at all, and lending is tightening up, so unless you like renting you definitely should be looking to buy now.

It may be too late already as the transmutation consolidates ...
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Foxy
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Zero is coming...

Perthite
26 Oct 2016, 09:19 AM
Dont buy until population growth resumes. im ready and willing but it really stinks up the outlook.
Hmmm,

i look all the time, what i am noticing is a constriction in many areas, if deflation hits the game will change very dramatically.

So areas of the economy will simply disappear.

My short term solution is to pay cash for what i buy.

I am not looking at debt and in fact are paying it off.

So if the value of my investments drop say 3% per year for say 10 years it really does not matter.

No bank is going to say, well we need to revalue your investment (our investment) oh and you will pay for the revaluation, plus all associated costs. :D :D :D

I would say at this time any interaction with a bank is overpriced and only devalues my business.

I am drifting to a point in the future that i have zero debt.

Good luck guys.

Just think.

If you have 2 identical buisneses.

One has 90% debt at say 6% interest.
the other no debt.

The one with no debt is nearly 6% better off per year.

No???

So residential is the same.

House 1 has 90% debt at say 4%

House 2 has no debt.

If both house were worth say $1m then house 2 has $40,000 more disposable income than house 1 if both houses had the same income.

I know that i would rather live in house 2??






Black Panther
26 Oct 2016, 09:22 AM
Perth prices arent going to fall much further or at all, and lending is tightening up, so unless you like renting you definitely should be looking to buy now.

It may be too late already as the transmutation consolidates ...
Hi Black Panther, i know i have asked before, this transmutation again please???

Peter

Are we talking wealth consolidation??
Edited by Foxy, 26 Oct 2016, 06:23 PM.
http://www.afr.com/content/dam/images/g/n/2/1/u/8/image.imgtype.afrArticleInline.620x0.png/1456285515560.png
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