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Perth - The Bottom is Here
Topic Started: 22 Oct 2016, 04:10 PM (21,327 Views)
Khaderbhai
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Wealthy Suburbanite

Blondie girl
27 Oct 2016, 12:56 PM
Blaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaah


meow meow meow
moooooooove on
Indeed Blondie - very insightful.
Banks can't repossess your home simply because the market value falls. Australia's Consumer Credit Code says consumers aren't liable for things ordinarily outside their control and can't be held to obligations that could only be met by selling their home. Click for details.

"The truth is that there are no good men, or bad men. It is the deeds that have goodness or badness in them. There are good deeds, and bad deeds. Men are just men."
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Blondie girl
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Dachopper,

try not to get too caught up with research, history, stats, how EXACTLY is the present Perth market meaning to your situation ?
Khaderbhai
27 Oct 2016, 01:31 PM
Indeed Blondie - very insightful.
I choose my responses accordingly, there is usually quite a lot a neurons involved.

:wak:
Don't you lot come back unless its about Perth stuff.....
Edited by Blondie girl, 27 Oct 2016, 01:44 PM.
Newjerk? can you try harder than dig up another person's blog. My first promo was with Billabong and my name in English is modified with a T, am Perth born but also lived in Sydney to make my $$
It's Absolutely Fabulous if it includes brilliant locations, & high calibre tenants..what more does one want? Understand the power of the two "P"" or be financially challenged
Even better when there is family who are property mad and one is born in some entitlements.....Understand that beautiful women are the exhibitionists we crave attention, whilst hot blooded men are the voyeurs ... A stunning woman can command and takes pleasure in being noticed. Seems not too many understand what it means to hold and own props and get threatened by those who do.
Banks are considered to be law abiding and & rather boring places yeah not true . A bank balance sheet will show capital is dwarfed by their liabilities this means when a portions of loans is falling its problems for the bank.
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Khaderbhai
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Blondie girl
27 Oct 2016, 01:32 PM
I choose my responses accordingly, there is usually quite a lot a neurons involved.

Don't you lot come back unless its about Perth stuff.....
I'd like to talk some more about neurons if that's OK?
Banks can't repossess your home simply because the market value falls. Australia's Consumer Credit Code says consumers aren't liable for things ordinarily outside their control and can't be held to obligations that could only be met by selling their home. Click for details.

"The truth is that there are no good men, or bad men. It is the deeds that have goodness or badness in them. There are good deeds, and bad deeds. Men are just men."
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Terry
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Khaderbhai
27 Oct 2016, 01:27 PM
-0.59 is generally considered to be a moderate-strong inverse correlation Roddy. You simply dislike the fact that I've proved commodities price growth tends to be slowing while Sydney house price growth is accelerating, and vice versa. If you'd known about this relationship before, perhaps you wouldn't have miscalled the Sydney housing market so badly over the past decade? It's not too late to learn from your mistakes Roddy...

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Righto MC. Considering you don't understand the fundamentals of framing data or how to validate a coeff, the skit is quite lame.
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Khaderbhai
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Terry
27 Oct 2016, 03:41 PM
Righto MC. Considering you don't understand the fundamentals of framing data or how to validate a coeff, the skit is quite lame.
Well Roddy, if you can't understand the data then it probably helps to explain why you've been miscalling Sydney house prices for a decade. But now that I've taught you about the inverse correlation with commodity price growth, perhaps you won't get the property market so badly wrong in the future.
Banks can't repossess your home simply because the market value falls. Australia's Consumer Credit Code says consumers aren't liable for things ordinarily outside their control and can't be held to obligations that could only be met by selling their home. Click for details.

"The truth is that there are no good men, or bad men. It is the deeds that have goodness or badness in them. There are good deeds, and bad deeds. Men are just men."
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dachopper
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27 Oct 2016, 06:27 AM
Sorry I tried to respond to your last response. I highlighted the words ' minor glitch' and then posted a youtube video of John Mcenroe ' You cannot be serious'. But the post did not go up.

But I did notice this while looking at the news a few minutes ago.

After reading it, I thought surely Perth would be at the top of the list.

http://www.news.com.au/finance/real-estate/buying/home-loan-stress-to-rise-despite-low-rates/news-story/c7dce1b7aaba04cae0dc4b9e29b8bf69

And in your post here, it claims Perth prices are back to that of a decade ago. The mining boom has been going ballistic over the last decade, jobs growing, wages surging and interest rates have been tanking to record lows. So one would of expected the best growth over that time. Yet apparently nothing over that time. Sort of defies reality .
Anyway, so yesterday you told me prices will be 50% higher in ten years time. I find this hard to believe when looking at last ten, look at everything that has supported it. Then consider that there is little to no relief left from rates now or FOREVER. That the mining boom is over, that we have a shitload more property than before the boom. The fact there are now about ten time more rentals than before the boom, and that plenty of jobs were bought forward in the residential building boom. And that there is nothing to replace these jobs.

By the end of next year rents will be back to or below that of ten years ago. And I am sure that like you told me yesterday, that prices would be 50% higher in ten years ago, you would have also said the same for rent ten years ago. Many may have expected it so no big deal. But as we see, its far from the reality. If prices were ever going to be 50% higher, it would have been over the last ten and considering all the rate cuts.

Are you trying to convince us or yourself chopper ?
I'm not convincing anyone ,

I'm laughing at people who go to great expense, after the fact, to try to explain why the Perth market right now today is never going to increase, when nobody can rationally explain why it rose 200% in 3 years.
200% in 2 years is phenomenal !

It's because the rise was irrational. When Sydney prices hit a million or above, and they will....

When they hit 2 million , or 3 million.... why the hell would anyone on earth immigrate, buy or invest in Sydney if Perth is still at $500,000 Median.

How long will it take, for investors looking at an overheated East Coast market, to see that Perth has been doing nothing for 10 years, lets buy 4 for the price of 1 and double our money in 2 years...


That is why Perth Prices rocketed up in 2004-2006

"Perth’s 2004 to 2007 boom was initially fuelled by buyers from Sydney and other capitals, but as the market started its stellar growth in came foreign investors and migrants."

So.... You can all yap away at why the price will never go anywhere like everyone did prior to 2003,
And then when it doubles again, everyone who said it would go up can smile and say told you so.

It's a buyers market, It could boom next year, the year after, who knows.
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Edited by dachopper, 28 Oct 2016, 02:41 AM.
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newjez
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dachopper
28 Oct 2016, 02:27 AM
I'm not convincing anyone ,

I'm laughing at people who go to great expense, after the fact, to try to explain why the Perth market right now today is never going to increase, when nobody can rationally explain why it rose 200% in 3 years.
200% in 2 years is phenomenal !

It's because the rise was irrational. When Sydney prices hit a million or above, and they will....

When they hit 2 million , or 3 million.... why the hell would anyone on earth immigrate, buy or invest in Sydney if Perth is still at $500,000 Median.

How long will it take, for investors looking at an overheated East Coast market, to see that Perth has been doing nothing for 10 years, lets buy 4 for the price of 1 and double our money in 2 years...


That is why Perth Prices rocketed up in 2004-2006

"Perth’s 2004 to 2007 boom was initially fuelled by buyers from Sydney and other capitals, but as the market started its stellar growth in came foreign investors and migrants."

So.... You can all yap away at why the price will never go anywhere like everyone did prior to 2003,
And then when it doubles again, everyone who said it would go up can smile and say told you so.

It's a buyers market, It could boom next year, the year after, who knows.
My Webpage
That's not how it works.

If it worked that way, the people in peppermint grove would say, hey, why not buy ten houses in balga, f*** living in peppermint grove.

For a real estate investor, you have some funny ideas.
Whenever you have an argument with someone, there comes a moment where you must ask yourself, whatever your political persuasion, 'am I the Nazi?'
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dachopper
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newjez
28 Oct 2016, 03:54 AM
That's not how it works.

If it worked that way, the people in peppermint grove would say, hey, why not buy ten houses in balga, f*** living in peppermint grove.

For a real estate investor, you have some funny ideas.
Are you on drugs?

A. How many people who live in Peppermint grove, also own a separate investment property - that is also in Peppermint grove?

B. If the answer for A=>1..... Why the hell would anyone invest in Peppermint Grove. 1.92% rental return, 3.7% average growth, except since 2013, it has lost on average $500,000 from the median.

C. So given it's a terrible place to invest - and also you need to drive a Maserati to even afford the doorman's fee, Where do you think, the majority of investors will start looking - not in Peppermint Grove

In X years time, when Peppermint grove is sitting at 5 mill median, for every single investor that manages to get a foot in the door there, there are 100,000 investors that cannot afford it and push prices up elsewhere.

Perth is elsewhere - and not effected by the silly things that occur in Sydney, or Peppermint Grove , until the Delta get's too high for the 100,000's of others.


Real-estate is irrational - it's not a business, there is no formula, it's making money off the hope someone will pay you more for something which you purchased prior.


Here is a quote from the ABS in 2004 regarding Perth Property.. Not a single mention of iron ore, mining boom, or jobs, but plenty about what happened in the Eastern States, and what had not been happening in Perth for the previous decade.

"THE RISE IN HOUSE PRICES

After a decade of modest gains, the price of established homes in Perth began to accelerate in 1999-2000. During the 1990s, the price of established homes in Perth increased at an average annual rate of 2.4%, slightly above the rise in the general level of prices (2.1%). In contrast, the average annual increase between 1999-2000 and 2003-04 was 10.5%, well above the 3.1% increase in the general price level. However, growth in established house prices in the latter period was below the national annual average of 13.5%, which was largely driven by dramatic price increases in Sydney and Melbourne. The price of new (project) homes, which excludes the cost of land, also increased considerably during this period, although at a more modest average of 6.5% per year, equivalent to the national increase."
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Jimbo
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dachopper
28 Oct 2016, 02:27 AM
How long will it take, for investors looking at an overheated East Coast market, to see that Perth has been doing nothing for 10 years, lets buy 4 for the price of 1 and double our money in 2 years...
The thing is Dashy, investors need a return on their investment and with RE, that is generally derived from rental income in the short to medium term with the capital gains coming at the end.

Perth rocketed because of a combination of factors, not least of which was the very tight rental market which existed up until a few years ago.

Demand for rentals created an increased demand for investment properties.

But now there is very little demand for rentals. There are currently 10,594 available rentals according to REIWA which is a runaway record for this time of the year and just a few hundred short of the all time record high of a few months ago.

To put this into perspective Dashy, during the price boom, there was hardly anything advertised at all with agents having a waiting list as long as your arm for anything available to rent, at any price.

Sydney investors might think Perth is a cheap place to buy an IP, but what is an IP without a tenant?
Edited by Jimbo, 28 Oct 2016, 07:52 AM.
Matthew, 30 Jan 2016, 09:21 AM Your simplistic view is so flawed it is not worth debating. The current oversupply will be swallowed in 12 months. By the time dumb shits like you realise this prices will already be :?: rising.
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Rufus
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Jimbo
28 Oct 2016, 07:51 AM
The thing is Dashy, investors need a return on their investment and with RE, that is generally derived from rental income in the short to medium term with the capital gains coming at the end.

Perth rocketed because of a combination of factors, not least of which was the very tight rental market which existed up until a few years ago.

Demand for rentals created an increased demand for investment properties.

But now there is very little demand for rentals. There are currently 10,594 available rentals according to REIWA which is a runaway record for this time of the year and just a few hundred short of the all time record high of a few months ago.

To put this into perspective Dashy, during the price boom, there was hardly anything advertised at all with agents having a waiting list as long as your arm for anything available to rent, at any price.

Sydney investors might think Perth is a cheap place to buy an IP, but what is an IP without a tenant?
If I was buying in Perth for a house to live in I would look now but be happy to take 1 or 2 years to find exactly what I wanted. It doesn't matter that much if you get in a bit too early as any downside will be offset by rent saved at the back end. The more important thing is getting the right house in the right location. Things like lifestyle, school zones, close to family (so Grandma can help with the kids) and close to shops have a value.

But if I was buying for investment I would wait until the worst was over and some better signs for employment were showing. It's one thing to be able to boast to your mates that you bought at the bottom, but if that means the investor has an extended period of low or no rentals then that takes the gloss off the purchase.
Take risks - if you win you will become wealthy, if you lose you will become wise
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