Welcome Guest [Log In] [Register]


Reply
  • Pages:
  • 1
  • 6
  • 25
Perth - The Bottom is Here
Topic Started: 22 Oct 2016, 04:10 PM (21,330 Views)
Khaderbhai
Member Avatar
Wealthy Suburbanite

Rufus
26 Oct 2016, 01:05 PM
Sigh.......
There's a strong inverse relationship between medium-term commodity price growth and Sydney house price growth, but it's probably beyond Roddy's comprehension. As commodity price growth accelerates, Sydney house price growth slows, and vice versa. (Correlation coefficient of -0.59).

Posted Image

Roddy's head will probably explode now. No doubt he'll start waffling about regressions.
Edited by Khaderbhai, 26 Oct 2016, 07:49 PM.
Banks can't repossess your home simply because the market value falls. Australia's Consumer Credit Code says consumers aren't liable for things ordinarily outside their control and can't be held to obligations that could only be met by selling their home. Click for details.

"The truth is that there are no good men, or bad men. It is the deeds that have goodness or badness in them. There are good deeds, and bad deeds. Men are just men."
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
herbie
Member Avatar


Khaderbhai
26 Oct 2016, 01:49 PM
The fact that you (still) don't know the answer to this question helps to explain why you've been miscalling the housing market for a decade.
I've got a little hypothesis that housing price growth in markets where supply is limited just could at least in part be affected by interest rates?
A Professional Demographer to an amateur demographer: "negative natural increase will never outweigh the positive net migration"
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
dachopper
Default APF Avatar


Another day, another article supporting Perth as a buyers market.

As a quick disclaimer, Mr Oliver told news.com.au that it is important not to generalise when it comes to housing affordability as in some parts of the country — Darwin and Perth in particular — prices have retreated back to where they were a decade ago. However, for the rest of Australia — particularly Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane — there are “several reasons” it is best to hold off getting onto the property ladder
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
GloomBoomDoom
Member Avatar


http://www.news.com.au/finance/real-estate/buying/why-you-should-not-buy-a-house-right-now/news-story/12c1137d8ecf44deb3cd934c8d9b17d2
MSE
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
Terry
Member Avatar


Khaderbhai
26 Oct 2016, 07:28 PM
There's a strong inverse relationship between medium-term commodity price growth and Sydney house price growth, but it's probably beyond Roddy's comprehension. As commodity price growth accelerates, Sydney house price growth slows, and vice versa. (Correlation coefficient of -0.59).

Posted Image

Roddy's head will probably explode now. No doubt he'll start waffling about regressions.
What ya got there mother cat? A correlation with a coeff of 0.59? That's some pretty powerful stuff. What does it all mean?
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
dachopper
Default APF Avatar


I still can't believe that people are selling the mining " boom" as fueling the 2002 - 2006 Perth price rise.

Lets have a look at the numbers.

1985 through to 2005 there were just under 100,000 mining jobs nationally, which took a small dip in the middle by 20-30,000.
Note the Titanic increase in national mining jobs, between 2006 and 2013 - which corresponded with Perth house prices tanking !


Now lets look at WA -the jobless state. How many of those miners were from WA.....
So just to clarify, From 2006, to 2013, when Mining jobs increased from 50,000 jobs, to 100,000 jobs, Perth property tanked


Next graph -the best one of all..... So when Iron went from 18 dollars a tonne, and crept up to 30 dollars a tonne, that caused perth house prices to explode during the same period, yet when prices rose from $35 dollars a tonne to $180 a tonne, prices contracted
Posted Image

But it was the extra workers you say, and a housing shortage..
WA net migration has been between 20 - 40,000 since the 1980's until 2006.
In 2008 It peaked at 75,000, and in 2012 peaked again at 85,000. The Entire time correlating with Perth house prices going exactly no-where

But what about the average wage? mayby that has also been stagnant since 2006
Nope - you can even see the rate of house prices shooting up in the background. then again between 2006 -
Run the statistics to see how low that correlation actually is.
Posted Image

Finally CAPEX in WA
You can see again, Steady state capex of around 2/3 had increased to about 5 by 2006. House prices had already Peaked, before the big increase in Capex.
Posted Image


So to sum up the " perth bubble caused by the mining boom"
When Capex spending in WA actually increased by 3 or 4 fold, prices tanked
When WA migration started to increase, eventually Doubling and staying high until 2014 - The price Did nothing ,when it contracted from 2014-2016, the price did nothing when compared to 2004-2006
When WA mining Jobs increased by a factor of double - prices did nothing
When The average WA salary increased by 15% - prices did nothing
When Iron ore increased from $30 to $180 a tonne, prices did nothing.

Infact - the price went from 200,000 to over 400,000 before ANY OF THIS HAPPENED. And when it did happen, the prices stagnated the entire time.

I'm no detective, but trying to prove that any of the above factors have any relation to Perth house prices, either you do not understand statistics, and you probably have never lived in Perth.

All indicators are - it's one of the cheapest capital cities in Australia, at a time of the lowest interest rates, when there are loads more jobs than there were in 2006.

Just like what happened in 2004, "prices will never go up, eastern states are going to bust".... But they doubled in 2 years. My friend sold his house in 2006 that trippled in 2 years.
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
newjez
Member Avatar


dachopper
27 Oct 2016, 02:06 AM
I still can't believe that people are selling the mining " boom" as fueling the 2002 - 2006 Perth price rise.

Lets have a look at the numbers.

1985 through to 2005 there were just under 100,000 mining jobs nationally, which took a small dip in the middle by 20-30,000.
Note the Titanic increase in national mining jobs, between 2006 and 2013 - which corresponded with Perth house prices tanking !


Now lets look at WA -the jobless state. How many of those miners were from WA.....
So just to clarify, From 2006, to 2013, when Mining jobs increased from 50,000 jobs, to 100,000 jobs, Perth property tanked


Next graph -the best one of all..... So when Iron went from 18 dollars a tonne, and crept up to 30 dollars a tonne, that caused perth house prices to explode during the same period, yet when prices rose from $35 dollars a tonne to $180 a tonne, prices contracted
Posted Image

But it was the extra workers you say, and a housing shortage..
WA net migration has been between 20 - 40,000 since the 1980's until 2006.
In 2008 It peaked at 75,000, and in 2012 peaked again at 85,000. The Entire time correlating with Perth house prices going exactly no-where

But what about the average wage? mayby that has also been stagnant since 2006
Nope - you can even see the rate of house prices shooting up in the background. then again between 2006 -
Run the statistics to see how low that correlation actually is.
Posted Image

Finally CAPEX in WA
You can see again, Steady state capex of around 2/3 had increased to about 5 by 2006. House prices had already Peaked, before the big increase in Capex.
Posted Image


So to sum up the " perth bubble caused by the mining boom"
When Capex spending in WA actually increased by 3 or 4 fold, prices tanked
When WA migration started to increase, eventually Doubling and staying high until 2014 - The price Did nothing ,when it contracted from 2014-2016, the price did nothing when compared to 2004-2006
When WA mining Jobs increased by a factor of double - prices did nothing
When The average WA salary increased by 15% - prices did nothing
When Iron ore increased from $30 to $180 a tonne, prices did nothing.

Infact - the price went from 200,000 to over 400,000 before ANY OF THIS HAPPENED. And when it did happen, the prices stagnated the entire time.

I'm no detective, but trying to prove that any of the above factors have any relation to Perth house prices, either you do not understand statistics, and you probably have never lived in Perth.

All indicators are - it's one of the cheapest capital cities in Australia, at a time of the lowest interest rates, when there are loads more jobs than there were in 2006.

Just like what happened in 2004, "prices will never go up, eastern states are going to bust".... But they doubled in 2 years. My friend sold his house in 2006 that trippled in 2 years.
f*** the numbers. Live the bleeding obvious.
dachopper
26 Oct 2016, 11:08 PM
Another day, another article supporting Perth as a buyers market.

As a quick disclaimer, Mr Oliver told news.com.au that it is important not to generalise when it comes to housing affordability as in some parts of the country — Darwin and Perth in particular — prices have retreated back to where they were a decade ago. However, for the rest of Australia — particularly Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane — there are “several reasons” it is best to hold off getting onto the property ladder
You do know a buyers market means things are shit don't you.
Edited by newjez, 27 Oct 2016, 03:32 AM.
Whenever you have an argument with someone, there comes a moment where you must ask yourself, whatever your political persuasion, 'am I the Nazi?'
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
Guest
Unregistered

dachopper
26 Oct 2016, 11:08 PM
Another day, another article supporting Perth as a buyers market.

As a quick disclaimer, Mr Oliver told news.com.au that it is important not to generalise when it comes to housing affordability as in some parts of the country — Darwin and Perth in particular — prices have retreated back to where they were a decade ago. However, for the rest of Australia — particularly Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane — there are “several reasons” it is best to hold off getting onto the property ladder
Sorry I tried to respond to your last response. I highlighted the words ' minor glitch' and then posted a youtube video of John Mcenroe ' You cannot be serious'. But the post did not go up.

But I did notice this while looking at the news a few minutes ago.

After reading it, I thought surely Perth would be at the top of the list.

http://www.news.com.au/finance/real-estate/buying/home-loan-stress-to-rise-despite-low-rates/news-story/c7dce1b7aaba04cae0dc4b9e29b8bf69

And in your post here, it claims Perth prices are back to that of a decade ago. The mining boom has been going ballistic over the last decade, jobs growing, wages surging and interest rates have been tanking to record lows. So one would of expected the best growth over that time. Yet apparently nothing over that time. Sort of defies reality .
Anyway, so yesterday you told me prices will be 50% higher in ten years time. I find this hard to believe when looking at last ten, look at everything that has supported it. Then consider that there is little to no relief left from rates now or FOREVER. That the mining boom is over, that we have a shitload more property than before the boom. The fact there are now about ten time more rentals than before the boom, and that plenty of jobs were bought forward in the residential building boom. And that there is nothing to replace these jobs.

By the end of next year rents will be back to or below that of ten years ago. And I am sure that like you told me yesterday, that prices would be 50% higher in ten years ago, you would have also said the same for rent ten years ago. Many may have expected it so no big deal. But as we see, its far from the reality. If prices were ever going to be 50% higher, it would have been over the last ten and considering all the rate cuts.

Are you trying to convince us or yourself chopper ?
"REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
Khaderbhai
Member Avatar
Wealthy Suburbanite

Terry
27 Oct 2016, 12:03 AM
What does it all mean?
Well Roddy, it confirms the inverse relationship between commodity price growth and Sydney house price growth.
Banks can't repossess your home simply because the market value falls. Australia's Consumer Credit Code says consumers aren't liable for things ordinarily outside their control and can't be held to obligations that could only be met by selling their home. Click for details.

"The truth is that there are no good men, or bad men. It is the deeds that have goodness or badness in them. There are good deeds, and bad deeds. Men are just men."
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
Foxy
Member Avatar
Zero is coming...

Blondie girl
23 Oct 2016, 01:28 PM
There is a difference in negotiating low ball to unrealistic....

I do suspect what you offered on the West Perth apartment was initially on the ridiculous....
:lol

You need to focus on what is happening in your own back yard in Sydney and do damage control.. better run to Perth...........
run! run! run! fly like the wind frumps.


Actually don't come to Perth......... stay there and froth at the mouth........
:re:
Hi Blondie,

The West Perth apartment is still for sale, and move have come on the market since, it is becoming old product, like a cougar trying to compete with this sort of gear.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tBu-ewMRhkA

And there is more coming to market every day.

So lets see if my offer is that ridiculous???

Was talking to a business colleague this week, he is saying the Western Australia economy is on life support.

So i am going to be hard.

Peter



newjez
27 Oct 2016, 03:31 AM
f*** the numbers. Live the bleeding obvious.

You do know a buyers market means things are shit don't you.
All very interesting, but.

The multiplier effect.

$1 dollar injected ends up being spent how many times??

Then you get people projecting that into the never never.

Well if my coffee shop is now doing 10 times the trade it did a year ago?? I cna pay more for a house.

Well if Joe from the coffee shop is spending all that money on a house, i the agent can by a new BMW.

And so the show starts to swing into action.

There where more rub and tugs in Perth than Bangkok. :bh:

The girls were pulling in the money hand over fist.

Peter
Edited by Foxy, 27 Oct 2016, 11:03 AM.
http://www.afr.com/content/dam/images/g/n/2/1/u/8/image.imgtype.afrArticleInline.620x0.png/1456285515560.png
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
1 user reading this topic (1 Guest and 0 Anonymous)
ZetaBoards - Free Forum Hosting
Free Forums. Reliable service with over 8 years of experience.
Go to Next Page
« Previous Topic · Australian Property Forum · Next Topic »
Reply
  • Pages:
  • 1
  • 6
  • 25



Australian Property Forum is an economics and finance forum dedicated to discussion of Australian and global real estate markets and macroeconomics, including house prices, housing affordability, and the likelihood of a property crash. Is there an Australian housing bubble? Will house prices crash, boom or stagnate? Is the Australian property market a pyramid scheme or Ponzi scheme? Can house prices really rise forever? These are the questions we address on Australian Property Forum, the premier real estate site for property bears, bulls, investors, and speculators. Members may also discuss matters related to finance, modern monetary theory (MMT), debt deflation, cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin Ethereum and Ripple, property investing, landlords, tenants, debt consolidation, reverse home equity loans, the housing shortage, negative gearing, capital gains tax, land tax and macro prudential regulation.

Forum Rules: The main forum may be used to discuss property, politics, economics and finance, precious metals, crypto currency, debt management, generational divides, climate change, sustainability, alternative energy, environmental topics, human rights or social justice issues, and other topics on a case by case basis. Topics unsuitable for the main forum may be discussed in the lounge. You agree you won't use this forum to post material that is illegal, private, defamatory, pornographic, excessively abusive or profane, threatening, or invasive of another forum member's privacy. Don't post NSFW content. Racist or ethnic slurs and homophobic comments aren't tolerated. Accusing forum members of serious crimes is not permitted. Accusations, attacks, abuse or threats, litigious or otherwise, directed against the forum or forum administrators aren't tolerated and will result in immediate suspension of your account for a number of days depending on the severity of the attack. No spamming or advertising in the main forum. Spamming includes repeating the same message over and over again within a short period of time. Don't post ALL CAPS thread titles. The Advertising and Promotion Subforum may be used to promote your Australian property related business or service. Active members of the forum who contribute regularly to main forum discussions may also include a link to their product or service in their signature block. Members are limited to one actively posting account each. A secondary account may be used solely for the purpose of maintaining a blog as long as that account no longer posts in threads. Any member who believes another member has violated these rules may report the offending post using the report button.

Australian Property Forum complies with ASIC Regulatory Guide 162 regarding Internet Discussion Sites. Australian Property Forum is not a provider of financial advice. Australian Property Forum does not in any way endorse the views and opinions of its members, nor does it vouch for for the accuracy or authenticity of their posts. It is not permitted for any Australian Property Forum member to post in the role of a licensed financial advisor or to post as the representative of a financial advisor. It is not permitted for Australian Property Forum members to ask for or offer specific buy, sell or hold recommendations on particular stocks, as a response to a request of this nature may be considered the provision of financial advice.

Views expressed on this forum are not representative of the forum owners. The forum owners are not liable or responsible for comments posted. Information posted does not constitute financial or legal advice. The forum owners accept no liability for information posted, nor for consequences of actions taken on the basis of that information. By visiting or using this forum, members and guests agree to be bound by the Zetaboards Terms of Use.

This site may contain copyright material (i.e. attributed snippets from online news reports), the use of which has not always been specifically authorized by the copyright owner. Such content is posted to advance understanding of environmental, political, human rights, economic, democratic, scientific, and social justice issues. This constitutes 'fair use' of such copyright material as provided for in section 107 of US Copyright Law. In accordance with Title 17 U.S.C. Section 107, the material on this site is distributed for research and educational purposes only. If you wish to use this material for purposes that go beyond 'fair use', you must obtain permission from the copyright owner. Such material is credited to the true owner or licensee. We will remove from the forum any such material upon the request of the owners of the copyright of said material, as we claim no credit for such material.

For more information go to Limitations on Exclusive Rights: Fair Use

Privacy Policy: Australian Property Forum uses third party advertising companies to serve ads when you visit our site. These third party advertising companies may collect and use information about your visits to Australian Property Forum as well as other web sites in order to provide advertisements about goods and services of interest to you. If you would like more information about this practice and to know your choices about not having this information used by these companies, click here: Google Advertising Privacy FAQ

Australian Property Forum is hosted by Zetaboards. Please refer also to the Zetaboards Privacy Policy