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Perth - The Bottom is Here
Topic Started: 22 Oct 2016, 04:10 PM (21,331 Views)
Khaderbhai
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Wealthy Suburbanite

Terry
26 Oct 2016, 12:52 PM
How was the WA mining boom negative for house prices Sydney and Melbourne?
The fact that you (still) don't know the answer to this question helps to explain why you've been miscalling the housing market for a decade.
Banks can't repossess your home simply because the market value falls. Australia's Consumer Credit Code says consumers aren't liable for things ordinarily outside their control and can't be held to obligations that could only be met by selling their home. Click for details.

"The truth is that there are no good men, or bad men. It is the deeds that have goodness or badness in them. There are good deeds, and bad deeds. Men are just men."
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Terry
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Rufus
26 Oct 2016, 01:05 PM
Sigh.......
No need to sigh. I'm sure you're going to suggest that the WA mining boom sucked in the nation's financial resources or something similar echoed through the propaganda channels.
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dachopper
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You can't on one hand say iron prices going from 10 to 50 dollars a tonne was responsible for the housing boom, and on the other the minor glitch has us at 50 tonne now. So you think that iron prices will go back to 10 a tonne? And that is the basis for the doom and gloom.

Even if they go back down , even when they were back down at their lowest point. Mining GDP never decreased... more money goes somewhere right ?

Also. What happened when the spot price went up to $150 a tonne. Why did this have no effect on house prices? That is 300% more than when the house price stopped climbing? And prior to the capex increase, and while more jobs were created ? No change ?
Edited by dachopper, 26 Oct 2016, 02:02 PM.
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Terry
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dachopper
26 Oct 2016, 02:00 PM
You can't on one hand say iron prices going from 10 to 50 dollars a tonne was responsible for the housing boom, and on the other the minor glitch has us at 50 tonne now. So you think that iron prices will go back to 10 a tonne? And that is the basis for the doom and gloom.

Even if they go back down , even when they were back down at their lowest point. Mining GDP never decreased... more money goes somewhere right ?

Also. What happened when the spot price went up to $150 a tonne. Why did this have no effect on house prices? That is 300% more than when the house price stopped climbing? And prior to the capex increase, and while more jobs were created ? No change ?
Iron ore prices at $150 a tonne are more conducive to driving "good vibes" in the suburbs compared to $10 a tonne. Those higher prices are also conducive to high wages for toilet cleaners in the Pilbara. And don't forget, they work well in media reports and Joe Hockey speeches focused on rationalizing our good fortune and the association with house prices.
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Rastus2
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Rufus
26 Oct 2016, 12:39 PM
The mining boom in WA was negative for house prices in Sydney and Melbourne, where the angst is.
I am not sure I would quite agree with that, however I am happy to be convinced if there is evidence.

I would have thought the mining boom led to more wealth, and FIFO workers ensured that this wealth was not simply -ve for Sydney and Melbourne, but rather, also flowed there.

The increase of population to WA did not exactly cripple Sydney or Melbourne's population, nor harmed the wealth that existed there and flowed to those cities.

You may well argue that it acted as a magnet for investors, sure, but that did not limit investors from also buying elsewhere... it seems unlikely that it was a negative as such for our two major capital cities when so much of the mining boom was directed to their states either directly, or indirectly... they benefited.

You would be debating against Philip Lowe if you believe otherwise.
Edited by Rastus2, 26 Oct 2016, 03:20 PM.
Shadow - Defrauded his Bank ? 2015 I have 9 different loans and my bank had no idea which ones were personal and which were investment. They had half of them classed incorrectly. When this change came in they asked me to tell them if any personal loans were incorrectly classed as investment, which I did, and they switched them to personal for the lower rate. They also had a couple of investment loans incorrectly classed as personal. They didn't ask me about those. So they stay on the lower rate too. Worked out pretty well. :)
Shadow - 2008 Sydney Median House Price 1.25M by 2014-2015

Shadow : I think this boom has already begun in several cities. My prediction :
Peak of boom: 2014-2015. Sydney Median Price: $1,250,000 Bottom of bust: 2017-2018. Sydney Median Price: $1,100,000

Shadow's Original 2010 House Boom and Crash prediction http://s836.photobucket.com/user/rastus22/media/shady-orig-2010-chart.png.html?sort=3&o=0

Shadow's attempt to edit his 2010 chart in 2015 and replace it with one that does not show a crash in 2013 http://s836.photobucket.com/user/rastus22/media/Screen%20Shot%202015-06-06%20at%207.12.52%20pm_1.png.html
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Rufus
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Rastus2
26 Oct 2016, 03:19 PM
I am not sure I would quite agree with that, however I am happy to be convinced if there is evidence.

I would have thought the mining boom led to more wealth, and FIFO workers ensured that this wealth was not simply -ve for Sydney and Melbourne, but rather, also flowed there.

The increase of population to WA did not exactly cripple Sydney or Melbourne's population, nor harmed the wealth that existed there and flowed to those cities.

You may well argue that it acted as a magnet for investors, sure, but that did not limit investors from also buying elsewhere... it seems unlikely that it was a negative as such for our two major capital cities when so much of the mining boom was directed to their states either directly, or indirectly... they benefited.

You would be debating against Philip Lowe if you believe otherwise.
Quote:
 
It would be very easy for a self employed person or the wealthy. I don't see any impediments at all.

Not so easy for a PAYG salary earner unless they had wealth. If they have money they could have a positively geared share portfolio also running under a company umbrella, or some similar investment.

It would make it difficult for the mum and dad investors, but not the more wealthy investors. Handing the market to the rich shouldn't be the goal of legislative change.

This was posted to the wrong thread.
Edited by Rufus, 26 Oct 2016, 04:14 PM.
Take risks - if you win you will become wealthy, if you lose you will become wise
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Terry
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Rufus
26 Oct 2016, 03:26 PM
It would be very easy for a self employed person or the wealthy. I don't see any impediments at all.

Not so easy for a PAYG salary earner unless they had wealth. If they have money they could have a positively geared share portfolio also running under a company umbrella, or some similar investment.

It would make it difficult for the mum and dad investors, but not the more wealthy investors. Handing the market to the rich shouldn't be the goal of legislative change.
And that's the rationale why the mining boom was bad for Sydney and Melbourne? Maybe time for another exasperated sigh.
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Rufus
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Terry
26 Oct 2016, 03:35 PM
And that's the rationale why the mining boom was bad for Sydney and Melbourne? Maybe time for another exasperated sigh.
No, this issue had nothing to do with the slump in Sydney and Melbourne.


SIGHHHHH.............
Take risks - if you win you will become wealthy, if you lose you will become wise
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Terry
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Rufus
26 Oct 2016, 03:58 PM
No, this issue had nothing to do with the slump in Sydney and Melbourne.


SIGHHHHH.............
OK, thanks for rolling it out anyway. So I guess in your opinion, without the mining boom, things would have been trucking along quite well in Sydney and Melbourne. Of course, you wouldn't know via an A/B comparison considering that the mining boom in WA "happened."
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newjez
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Terry
26 Oct 2016, 01:53 PM
No need to sigh. I'm sure you're going to suggest that the WA mining boom sucked in the nation's financial resources or something similar echoed through the propaganda channels.
Certainly would have sucked up the human resources.
Whenever you have an argument with someone, there comes a moment where you must ask yourself, whatever your political persuasion, 'am I the Nazi?'
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