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Perth - The Bottom is Here
Topic Started: 22 Oct 2016, 04:10 PM (21,319 Views)
Rastus2
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Khaderbhai
31 Oct 2016, 12:55 PM
The inverse correlation is strong, and clearly visible from the graph.

ahem, I was talking about your post here,
http://australianpropertyforum.com/single/?p=8581451&t=10367947

12 month growth chart, which, you have posted is -0.429... that is not a strong correlation, even by your own admission.

It was so weak, you had to keep tinkering with the time frames until you managed to skew it enough... 12 months, to 24 months, to 36 months :re:

As I said, if you go long enough, I am sure you can get an even better correlation... go for the 100 month :)



Shadow - Defrauded his Bank ? 2015 I have 9 different loans and my bank had no idea which ones were personal and which were investment. They had half of them classed incorrectly. When this change came in they asked me to tell them if any personal loans were incorrectly classed as investment, which I did, and they switched them to personal for the lower rate. They also had a couple of investment loans incorrectly classed as personal. They didn't ask me about those. So they stay on the lower rate too. Worked out pretty well. :)
Shadow - 2008 Sydney Median House Price 1.25M by 2014-2015

Shadow : I think this boom has already begun in several cities. My prediction :
Peak of boom: 2014-2015. Sydney Median Price: $1,250,000 Bottom of bust: 2017-2018. Sydney Median Price: $1,100,000

Shadow's Original 2010 House Boom and Crash prediction http://s836.photobucket.com/user/rastus22/media/shady-orig-2010-chart.png.html?sort=3&o=0

Shadow's attempt to edit his 2010 chart in 2015 and replace it with one that does not show a crash in 2013 http://s836.photobucket.com/user/rastus22/media/Screen%20Shot%202015-06-06%20at%207.12.52%20pm_1.png.html
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Khaderbhai
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Rastus2
31 Oct 2016, 01:12 PM
12 month growth chart, which, you have posted is -0.429... that is not a strong correlation, even by your own admission
That's a moderate correlation. The 24-month correlation is strong. Both clearly visible on the respective charts.
Banks can't repossess your home simply because the market value falls. Australia's Consumer Credit Code says consumers aren't liable for things ordinarily outside their control and can't be held to obligations that could only be met by selling their home. Click for details.

"The truth is that there are no good men, or bad men. It is the deeds that have goodness or badness in them. There are good deeds, and bad deeds. Men are just men."
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Terry
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Khaderbhai
31 Oct 2016, 01:23 PM
That's a moderate correlation. The 24-month correlation is strong. Both clearly visible on the respective charts.
Well in a troll repertoire perhaps. From anyone with basic competence in research and analytics, it's little more than junk.
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Khaderbhai
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Terry
31 Oct 2016, 02:04 PM
Well in a troll repertoire perhaps. From anyone with basic competence in research and analytics, it's little more than junk.
Sure Roddy, it might be junk to someone like you who can't comprehend the data or analysis.

And that's one of the reasons you've been miscalling the housing market for a decade.

However those of us who understand the strong inverse correlation have used that knowledge to make lots of money through Sydney property.

But feel free to waffle about trolls and repertoires, instead of learning from your mistakes.
Edited by Khaderbhai, 31 Oct 2016, 02:12 PM.
Banks can't repossess your home simply because the market value falls. Australia's Consumer Credit Code says consumers aren't liable for things ordinarily outside their control and can't be held to obligations that could only be met by selling their home. Click for details.

"The truth is that there are no good men, or bad men. It is the deeds that have goodness or badness in them. There are good deeds, and bad deeds. Men are just men."
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Rastus2
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Khaderbhai
31 Oct 2016, 01:23 PM
That's a moderate correlation. The 24-month correlation is strong. Both clearly visible on the respective charts.

not to mention your complete failure to support your 'very strong' claim...

"The correlation coefficient for the 24 month growth rate is -0.59, which is very strong..".

Well 0.59 is not "very strong"... even by your own definition... opps :D
Shadow - Defrauded his Bank ? 2015 I have 9 different loans and my bank had no idea which ones were personal and which were investment. They had half of them classed incorrectly. When this change came in they asked me to tell them if any personal loans were incorrectly classed as investment, which I did, and they switched them to personal for the lower rate. They also had a couple of investment loans incorrectly classed as personal. They didn't ask me about those. So they stay on the lower rate too. Worked out pretty well. :)
Shadow - 2008 Sydney Median House Price 1.25M by 2014-2015

Shadow : I think this boom has already begun in several cities. My prediction :
Peak of boom: 2014-2015. Sydney Median Price: $1,250,000 Bottom of bust: 2017-2018. Sydney Median Price: $1,100,000

Shadow's Original 2010 House Boom and Crash prediction http://s836.photobucket.com/user/rastus22/media/shady-orig-2010-chart.png.html?sort=3&o=0

Shadow's attempt to edit his 2010 chart in 2015 and replace it with one that does not show a crash in 2013 http://s836.photobucket.com/user/rastus22/media/Screen%20Shot%202015-06-06%20at%207.12.52%20pm_1.png.html
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Terry
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Khaderbhai
31 Oct 2016, 02:10 PM
Sure Roddy, it might be junk to someone like you who can't comprehend the data or analysis.

And that's one of the reasons you've been miscalling the housing market for a decade.

However those of us who understand the strong inverse correlation have used that knowledge to make lots of money through Sydney property.

But feel free to waffle about trolls and repertoires, instead of learning from your mistakes.
Just describing what's going on mother cat. Like I said earlier, you cannot quantify the impact of a 1% increase in commodity prices on Sydney house prices, which can be calculated easily, but you can't and won't.

Don't even really need the above to call a troll repertoire.
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Khaderbhai
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Rastus2
31 Oct 2016, 02:39 PM
The correlation coefficient for the 24 month growth rate is -0.59, which is very strong
Agreed. I reckon it's an incredibly strong inverse correlation in this context.
Terry
31 Oct 2016, 02:52 PM
Just describing what's going on mother cat. Like I said earlier, you cannot quantify the impact of a 1% increase in commodity prices on Sydney house prices, which can be calculated easily, but you can't and won't.

Don't even really need the above to call a troll repertoire.
Well Roddy, when you can't understand data, waffling about trolls and repertoires is all you've got left. Keep the waffle coming.
Edited by Khaderbhai, 31 Oct 2016, 03:25 PM.
Banks can't repossess your home simply because the market value falls. Australia's Consumer Credit Code says consumers aren't liable for things ordinarily outside their control and can't be held to obligations that could only be met by selling their home. Click for details.

"The truth is that there are no good men, or bad men. It is the deeds that have goodness or badness in them. There are good deeds, and bad deeds. Men are just men."
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Rastus2
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Khaderbhai
31 Oct 2016, 03:23 PM
Agreed. I reckon it's an incredibly strong inverse correlation in this context.

well you are agreeing with yourself, hardly a shock, but not with the experts.

even by your own hyperlinked claims of correlation ...

There is no mention of "very strong correlation"... certainly if one existed, it would be near -1, not -.6

Value of r Strength of relationship
-1.0 to -0.5 or 1.0 to 0.5 Strong
-0.5 to -0.3 or 0.3 to 0.5 Moderate
-0.3 to -0.1 or 0.1 to 0.3 Weak
-0.1 to 0.1 None or very weak

0.59 is just outside of your claimed moderate range and into the low 'strong' range... by many other scientific claims it falls into the moderate range.


Can you show me a scientific website that cites 0.59 as being a "very strong correlation".. I would be interested to see it.
Shadow - Defrauded his Bank ? 2015 I have 9 different loans and my bank had no idea which ones were personal and which were investment. They had half of them classed incorrectly. When this change came in they asked me to tell them if any personal loans were incorrectly classed as investment, which I did, and they switched them to personal for the lower rate. They also had a couple of investment loans incorrectly classed as personal. They didn't ask me about those. So they stay on the lower rate too. Worked out pretty well. :)
Shadow - 2008 Sydney Median House Price 1.25M by 2014-2015

Shadow : I think this boom has already begun in several cities. My prediction :
Peak of boom: 2014-2015. Sydney Median Price: $1,250,000 Bottom of bust: 2017-2018. Sydney Median Price: $1,100,000

Shadow's Original 2010 House Boom and Crash prediction http://s836.photobucket.com/user/rastus22/media/shady-orig-2010-chart.png.html?sort=3&o=0

Shadow's attempt to edit his 2010 chart in 2015 and replace it with one that does not show a crash in 2013 http://s836.photobucket.com/user/rastus22/media/Screen%20Shot%202015-06-06%20at%207.12.52%20pm_1.png.html
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Terry
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Rastus2
31 Oct 2016, 03:31 PM



Can you show me a scientific website that cites 0.59 as being a "very strong correlation".. I would be interested to see it.
Before that you would probably need to define what your analytics objective is; why you would use a correlation to support your objective; and the best way to frame your data for your analysis technique. Analysis 101. Very little point arguing about a corr coeff. Mother cat can argue Colonel Sanders is the brand identify for McDonalds. If you want to confront a troll, keep it in perspective.
Edited by Terry, 31 Oct 2016, 03:48 PM.
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Khaderbhai
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Rastus2
31 Oct 2016, 03:31 PM
There is no mention of "very strong correlation"... certainly if one existed, it would be near -1
Well no, that would be an extremely strong correlation.
Terry
31 Oct 2016, 03:47 PM
Very little point arguing about a corr coeff
Yet here you are Roddy, arguing about it. :lol
Edited by Khaderbhai, 31 Oct 2016, 05:28 PM.
Banks can't repossess your home simply because the market value falls. Australia's Consumer Credit Code says consumers aren't liable for things ordinarily outside their control and can't be held to obligations that could only be met by selling their home. Click for details.

"The truth is that there are no good men, or bad men. It is the deeds that have goodness or badness in them. There are good deeds, and bad deeds. Men are just men."
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