I love how the threads always deteriorate into decayed banter. Perth is no where near bottom. It's growth above normal was driven by the masses from the east coast and other states either investing or relocating for work. It's the Mackay of the west. How's the rental returns there now. I heard someone saying in the peak you had to go bid for rentals. If that doesn't clearly display how it was going to end badly nothing will
There were more factors than simply minning exports that slowed the services sector for a period, the fact that both were anle to rise strongly for many years simultaneously demonstrates a lack of inverse correlation.
Dare to post a correlation coefficient ? I bet it is positive rather than negative, but the fact you probably don't understand what that means makes me smile.
Shoddy's claimed correlation went from "strong inverse relationship " to "moderate-strong" in the space of a day.
As I said, the degree of impact is probably not as strong as you think, and as we all know, correlation does not prove causation, even if simple theories sound like.
It's the effect on the dollar and interest rates that are the important factors.
If you concentrated on understanding rather than a pointless attempt to best someone in an argument.
Take risks - if you win you will become wealthy, if you lose you will become wise
It's the effect on the dollar and interest rates that are the important factors.
If you concentrated on understanding rather than a pointless attempt to best someone in an argument.
I am concentrating on the evidence provided, and when questioning how you came to your conclusions based on it, you fall back on insults.
I am well aware of the impact to the AUD. The real question is if you want to think deeper and consider that the wealth flowing from the mining boom also flowed to other states instead of simply branding it as hampering the Sydney prices. The mining boom had many impacts across Australia, it is simplistic to simply brand it as bad for Sydney properties based on a claim that the services sector suffered.
I was asking if you have an idea of what the correlation between the two sectors you posted in your chart were... do you ?
Is it a positive or a negative correlation ? That goes to the heart of your claim via that chart.
2012 to 2015 shows services sector ramping right up with no period of slowing.. it shows the commodities booming, then busting in the same period... I could cite date ranges that show very positive correlation.
If it is not negative, then please explain how a rise in commodity exports is shown to be detrimental to services sector when the opposite is shown on your own chart.
or, if that is too difficult for you, then I guess you will have to fall back on insults instead
Your handiwork MC, therefore there is no chance to reach beyond the most basic maths taught in schools. Without the repertoire, it would have less relevance.
Roddy, you can waffle about repertoires and stuff from now until Christmas, but the inverse relationship is clear as day from the chart...
As commodity price growth slows, Sydney house price growth tends to accelerate, and vice versa. A wonderfully strong inverse correlation.
"The truth is that there are no good men, or bad men. It is the deeds that have goodness or badness in them. There are good deeds, and bad deeds. Men are just men."
"The truth is that there are no good men, or bad men. It is the deeds that have goodness or badness in them. There are good deeds, and bad deeds. Men are just men."
Interestingly, if I run the analysis for the 36-month growth rates, the inverse correlation is even stronger at -0.74.
Might post a chart for that later.
how about you post the raw data instead of the claims ?
You don't cite the source of the chart, or any source of the data you used... with your record, I would like to trust the data is genuine, but am not willing, nor able.
What were the 6 and 12 month growth rate correlations ? or would you rather not say
I would like to trust the data is genuine, but am not willing, nor able
RBA commodities index and ABS/Residex house prices. Run the analysis yourself if you want to confirm. The full spreadsheet has 300+ lines so here's a sample.
DateABS SydneyRBA CommoditiesABS SydneyRBA CommABS SydneyRBA CommABS SydneyRBA CommABS SydneyRBA Comm House Price IndexIndexQtrly GrowthQtrly GrowthAnn GrowthAnn Growth2 Year Growth2 Year Growth3 Year Growth3 Year Growth 1/06/10101.4111.52.53%26.48%11.31%35.79%18.32%-11.27%16.15%38.31% 1/09/10101.1109.9-0.30%-1.36%5.31%31.99%19.64%-12.56%13.34%33.84% 1/12/10101.3109.10.20%-0.79%2.43%23.77%20.74%-2.54%14.46%22.95% 1/03/11101.0119.0-0.30%9.09%-0.39%6.76%15.43%40.82%15.69%14.30% 1/06/11101.4124.40.40%4.50%0.30%13.10%11.31%51.48%18.32%-1.02% 1/09/1199.9125.5-1.48%0.94%-1.38%15.08%4.06%50.69%18.22%-0.17% 1/12/1198.4112.2-1.50%-10.61%-2.57%-5.71%-0.51%27.32%17.28%0.25% 1/03/12100.3109.21.93%-2.69%-1.08%-12.20%-1.08%-2.05%14.63%29.21% 1/06/12101.4107.81.10%-1.29%1.50%-14.14%0.30%-1.97%11.31%31.30% 1/09/12100.994.7-0.49%-12.18%2.54%-15.64%-0.39%-13.22%5.10%13.63% 1/12/12103.793.42.78%-1.32%3.39%-14.46%2.67%-21.51%4.85%5.98% 1/03/13104.799.80.96%6.83%3.25%-7.42%3.25%-19.76%3.25%-10.48% 1/06/13108.7100.13.82%0.28%7.73%5.71%8.81%-20.29%7.52%-8.99% 1/09/13112.8102.63.77%2.55%8.78%9.86%14.63%-8.55%11.35%-5.93% 1/12/13119.0105.85.50%3.14%13.66%6.06%18.64%-3.08%17.82%-11.07% 1/03/14121.799.22.27%-6.30%11.96%-0.90%20.02%-8.00%20.02%-20.26% 1/06/14126.088.33.53%-10.91%11.70%-13.90%24.88%-6.67%26.13%-29.62% 1/09/14128.885.92.22%-2.71%8.24%-18.79%24.20%-7.98%30.89%-23.40% 1/12/14133.485.93.57%-0.10%9.61%-13.41%27.41%-13.95%33.00%-21.36% 1/03/15137.682.93.15%-3.48%9.21%-6.19%26.59%-17.17%35.70%-23.11% 1/06/15149.880.78.87%-2.59%16.30%-6.07%32.80%-21.32%48.46%-14.71% Corr-0.429 -0.588 -0.738
"The truth is that there are no good men, or bad men. It is the deeds that have goodness or badness in them. There are good deeds, and bad deeds. Men are just men."
RBA commodities index and ABS/Residex house prices. Run the analysis yourself if you want to confirm. The full spreadsheet has 300+ lines so here's a sample.
DateABS SydneyRBA CommoditiesABS SydneyRBA CommABS SydneyRBA CommABS SydneyRBA CommABS SydneyRBA Comm House Price IndexIndexQtrly GrowthQtrly GrowthAnn GrowthAnn Growth2 Year Growth2 Year Growth3 Year Growth3 Year Growth 1/06/10101.4111.52.53%26.48%11.31%35.79%18.32%-11.27%16.15%38.31% 1/09/10101.1109.9-0.30%-1.36%5.31%31.99%19.64%-12.56%13.34%33.84% 1/12/10101.3109.10.20%-0.79%2.43%23.77%20.74%-2.54%14.46%22.95% 1/03/11101.0119.0-0.30%9.09%-0.39%6.76%15.43%40.82%15.69%14.30% 1/06/11101.4124.40.40%4.50%0.30%13.10%11.31%51.48%18.32%-1.02% 1/09/1199.9125.5-1.48%0.94%-1.38%15.08%4.06%50.69%18.22%-0.17% 1/12/1198.4112.2-1.50%-10.61%-2.57%-5.71%-0.51%27.32%17.28%0.25% 1/03/12100.3109.21.93%-2.69%-1.08%-12.20%-1.08%-2.05%14.63%29.21% 1/06/12101.4107.81.10%-1.29%1.50%-14.14%0.30%-1.97%11.31%31.30% 1/09/12100.994.7-0.49%-12.18%2.54%-15.64%-0.39%-13.22%5.10%13.63% 1/12/12103.793.42.78%-1.32%3.39%-14.46%2.67%-21.51%4.85%5.98% 1/03/13104.799.80.96%6.83%3.25%-7.42%3.25%-19.76%3.25%-10.48% 1/06/13108.7100.13.82%0.28%7.73%5.71%8.81%-20.29%7.52%-8.99% 1/09/13112.8102.63.77%2.55%8.78%9.86%14.63%-8.55%11.35%-5.93% 1/12/13119.0105.85.50%3.14%13.66%6.06%18.64%-3.08%17.82%-11.07% 1/03/14121.799.22.27%-6.30%11.96%-0.90%20.02%-8.00%20.02%-20.26% 1/06/14126.088.33.53%-10.91%11.70%-13.90%24.88%-6.67%26.13%-29.62% 1/09/14128.885.92.22%-2.71%8.24%-18.79%24.20%-7.98%30.89%-23.40% 1/12/14133.485.93.57%-0.10%9.61%-13.41%27.41%-13.95%33.00%-21.36% 1/03/15137.682.93.15%-3.48%9.21%-6.19%26.59%-17.17%35.70%-23.11% 1/06/15149.880.78.87%-2.59%16.30%-6.07%32.80%-21.32%48.46%-14.71% Corr-0.429 -0.588 -0.738
thankyou, was that so difficult ?
What was the growth period for Corr-0.429 that is at the bottom of your post ? Seems a bit odd you selected to not mention that one.
What was the growth period for Corr-0.429 that is at the bottom of your post ? Seems a bit odd you selected to not mention that one.
That's annual. Moderate correlation. It takes a while for the RBA to react by changing interest rates, and then for the interest rate changes and currency movements to flow into house prices so the correlation is stronger over the medium term (2-3 years) than short term (1 year).
"The truth is that there are no good men, or bad men. It is the deeds that have goodness or badness in them. There are good deeds, and bad deeds. Men are just men."
That's annual. Moderate correlation. It takes a while for the RBA to react by changing interest rates, and then for the interest rate changes and currency movements to flow into house prices so the correlation is stronger over the medium term (2-3 years) than short term (1 year).
1 year - well 0.429 is weak correlation in my book, not quite moderate which 0.5 would be... 0.7 to be strong.
I would agree that there is a lag for RBA to react with IR changes, which is why mining booms take a few years to actually cause issues elsewhere in the country, where as the benefits via flow of money is almost immediate to elsewhere in the country. By the time your claimed mining boom's effect has happened, the boom was starting to flounder (2005 - 2008), it was then another short spell (2009 - 2013) by which time the effect you cite would only have just started showing up again.
You see, by admitting the time lag of any detrimental impact, you admit the boom has to go for longer than that time to have any significant real adverse effect, and all that time, the wealth was flowing to NSW anyway.
I am not saying the mining boom had no effect in property prices, however I am not convinced it was the major driver for any sluggishness in Sydney's prices... indeed, can you find any posts where this was previously cited as a drag on sydney house price rises by your previous account on this forum ?
Getting back to this raw data, did you actually use the Mining Commodity price index for your CommoditiesABS collumn ? or just grab the Commodities index (which includes a lot of non mining boom data). I don't see
Also, since the RBA has a while to react, you would expect the changes to happen with a lag, thus the correlation could simply be found by using the 1 year change and offsetting by 1 or 2 years on the x-axis.
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