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Perth - The Bottom is Here
Topic Started: 22 Oct 2016, 04:10 PM (21,323 Views)
herbie
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Terry
28 Oct 2016, 07:58 PM
Well yes Jethro. Understanding how mythology is accepted into belief systems probably has little relevance to you.
Yeah. When I woz watchin' Cecil B. DeMille's The Ten Commandments over tha last coupla nites Tezzza, I must admit that no such thoughts ever crossed me mind - Tool.
Edited by herbie, 28 Oct 2016, 08:10 PM.
A Professional Demographer to an amateur demographer: "negative natural increase will never outweigh the positive net migration"
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Rastus2
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Khaderbhai
28 Oct 2016, 04:46 PM
Not necessarily - the correlation is not '1'.

But most of the time, if commodity price growth slows then Sydney house price growth accelerates, and vice versa.

So no data or hyperlink of where you got the chart, just more waffle ? yup, thought so.


Most of the time is not a strong correlation... I would like to know how you got that .59 correlation... or did you just make more shit up to sound impressive again ? :lol

Even if you had not failed to provide proof of that correlation, Correlation does not imply causation... the chasm between your claim and your proof is so large, it's no wonder you are unable to fill it.


Rufus
28 Oct 2016, 04:23 PM
It's not my chart to defend or otherwise.

You either understand the logic or you don't. Either way I don't much care, I'm just trying to explain what should be obvious.

No, it's not your chart, but you came in batting in support of it's claim, and as I explained, before simply trusting the poster, I would like to see evidence of how the correlation was calculated (raw data), and consider that such a simple claim might overlook how the boom benefited Sydney's economy rather than simply harmed it.


I understand logic perfectly well, but thanks for the snide remark.

Allow me to return the explanation.

You either are a simple minded person who assumes your basic logic explains everything, or you are a deeper thinker who considers that your logic is not perfect and does not account for the wealth that spills to Sydney when a mining boom happens outside of Sydney :re:

If your logic explained it all, those 2 charts I posted would demonstrate the correlation pretty well ...

Edited by Rastus2, 28 Oct 2016, 10:50 PM.
Shadow - Defrauded his Bank ? 2015 I have 9 different loans and my bank had no idea which ones were personal and which were investment. They had half of them classed incorrectly. When this change came in they asked me to tell them if any personal loans were incorrectly classed as investment, which I did, and they switched them to personal for the lower rate. They also had a couple of investment loans incorrectly classed as personal. They didn't ask me about those. So they stay on the lower rate too. Worked out pretty well. :)
Shadow - 2008 Sydney Median House Price 1.25M by 2014-2015

Shadow : I think this boom has already begun in several cities. My prediction :
Peak of boom: 2014-2015. Sydney Median Price: $1,250,000 Bottom of bust: 2017-2018. Sydney Median Price: $1,100,000

Shadow's Original 2010 House Boom and Crash prediction http://s836.photobucket.com/user/rastus22/media/shady-orig-2010-chart.png.html?sort=3&o=0

Shadow's attempt to edit his 2010 chart in 2015 and replace it with one that does not show a crash in 2013 http://s836.photobucket.com/user/rastus22/media/Screen%20Shot%202015-06-06%20at%207.12.52%20pm_1.png.html
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Rastus2
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Rufus
28 Oct 2016, 05:04 PM
You didn't notice the change or what it means to the economy - fair enough, keep trying.

Posted Image
actually, your own chart seems to show that there are quite a lot of periods where services rose strongly, as did mining exports.

I don't think this bolsters the claims of a strong correlation that services suffer when mining booms, do you ?
Shadow - Defrauded his Bank ? 2015 I have 9 different loans and my bank had no idea which ones were personal and which were investment. They had half of them classed incorrectly. When this change came in they asked me to tell them if any personal loans were incorrectly classed as investment, which I did, and they switched them to personal for the lower rate. They also had a couple of investment loans incorrectly classed as personal. They didn't ask me about those. So they stay on the lower rate too. Worked out pretty well. :)
Shadow - 2008 Sydney Median House Price 1.25M by 2014-2015

Shadow : I think this boom has already begun in several cities. My prediction :
Peak of boom: 2014-2015. Sydney Median Price: $1,250,000 Bottom of bust: 2017-2018. Sydney Median Price: $1,100,000

Shadow's Original 2010 House Boom and Crash prediction http://s836.photobucket.com/user/rastus22/media/shady-orig-2010-chart.png.html?sort=3&o=0

Shadow's attempt to edit his 2010 chart in 2015 and replace it with one that does not show a crash in 2013 http://s836.photobucket.com/user/rastus22/media/Screen%20Shot%202015-06-06%20at%207.12.52%20pm_1.png.html
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Terry
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herbie
28 Oct 2016, 08:06 PM
Yeah. When I woz watchin' Cecil B. DeMille's The Ten Commandments over tha last coupla nites Tezzza, I must admit that no such thoughts ever crossed me mind - Tool.
Yes, well you're much better off following moral code from biblical stories than buying into half-baked ideas about asset price cycles that you can't even hope to understand. You're not equipped with the tools Jethro. Best stick to stuff you know: critters and stuff.
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Rufus
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Rastus2
28 Oct 2016, 10:47 PM
actually, your own chart seems to show that there are quite a lot of periods where services rose strongly, as did mining exports.

I don't think this bolsters the claims of a strong correlation that services suffer when mining booms, do you ?
That's cool, it works in my favour if you don't understand.
Take risks - if you win you will become wealthy, if you lose you will become wise
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Terry
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Rufus
28 Oct 2016, 11:28 PM
That's cool, it works in my favour if you don't understand.
It can work in your favor and against you. Just like in the Church of Scientology, the veneer of knowing something needs to be be maintained in front of non-believers and prospects, regardless if you're speaking half-bake (which you are). That works in your favor from a psychological perspective (similar to control through knowledge). However, if the non-believers and prospects see you as a fraud or a dupe, then you lose the opportunity to grow the organization and peer group.
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Rufus
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Terry
28 Oct 2016, 11:44 PM
It can work in your favor and against you. Just like in the Church of Scientology, the veneer of knowing something needs to be be maintained in front of non-believers and prospects, regardless if you're speaking half-bake (which you are). That works in your favor from a psychological perspective (similar to control through knowledge). However, if the non-believers and prospects see you as a fraud or a dupe, then you lose the opportunity to grow the organization and peer group.
It's no skin off my nose if you refuse to learn anything Terry.
I don't understand why you have a reluctance to learn, but it's totally fine by me.

I'm certainly not going to waste my time trying to get you to change.
Take risks - if you win you will become wealthy, if you lose you will become wise
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Terry
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Rufus
29 Oct 2016, 12:08 AM
It's no skin off my nose if you refuse to learn anything Terry.
I don't understand why you have a reluctance to learn, but it's totally fine by me.

I'm certainly not going to waste my time trying to get you to change.
Sure, if I were you, I wouldn't waste my time. There's far better prospects for you floating around the BBQs and drifting through the suburban existence. In Scientology speak, you're a Sea Org Member, while people like myself are labelled Suppresives.
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herbie
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Terry
29 Oct 2016, 02:20 AM
Sure, if I were you, I wouldn't waste my time. There's far better prospects for you floating around the BBQs and drifting through the suburban existence. In Scientology speak, you're a Sea Org Member, while people like myself are labelled Suppresives.
In Jethro speak critters like you are just labelled roadkill on tha financial highway of life.
A Professional Demographer to an amateur demographer: "negative natural increase will never outweigh the positive net migration"
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Rastus2
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Rufus
28 Oct 2016, 11:28 PM
That's cool, it works in my favour if you don't understand.

Of course it does peter :re:

There were more factors than simply minning exports that slowed the services sector for a period, the fact that both were anle to rise strongly for many years simultaneously demonstrates a lack of inverse correlation.

Dare to post a correlation coefficient ? I bet it is positive rather than negative, but the fact you probably don't understand what that means makes me smile.

Shoddy's claimed correlation went from "strong inverse relationship " to "moderate-strong" in the space of a day.

As I said, the degree of impact is probably not as strong as you think, and as we all know, correlation does not prove causation, even if simple theories sound like.

Edited by Rastus2, 29 Oct 2016, 08:54 AM.
Shadow - Defrauded his Bank ? 2015 I have 9 different loans and my bank had no idea which ones were personal and which were investment. They had half of them classed incorrectly. When this change came in they asked me to tell them if any personal loans were incorrectly classed as investment, which I did, and they switched them to personal for the lower rate. They also had a couple of investment loans incorrectly classed as personal. They didn't ask me about those. So they stay on the lower rate too. Worked out pretty well. :)
Shadow - 2008 Sydney Median House Price 1.25M by 2014-2015

Shadow : I think this boom has already begun in several cities. My prediction :
Peak of boom: 2014-2015. Sydney Median Price: $1,250,000 Bottom of bust: 2017-2018. Sydney Median Price: $1,100,000

Shadow's Original 2010 House Boom and Crash prediction http://s836.photobucket.com/user/rastus22/media/shady-orig-2010-chart.png.html?sort=3&o=0

Shadow's attempt to edit his 2010 chart in 2015 and replace it with one that does not show a crash in 2013 http://s836.photobucket.com/user/rastus22/media/Screen%20Shot%202015-06-06%20at%207.12.52%20pm_1.png.html
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