If I was buying in Perth for a house to live in I would look now but be happy to take 1 or 2 years to find exactly what I wanted. It doesn't matter that much if you get in a bit too early as any downside will be offset by rent saved at the back end. The more important thing is getting the right house in the right location. Things like lifestyle, school zones, close to family (so Grandma can help with the kids) and close to shops have a value.
But if I was buying for investment I would wait until the worst was over and some better signs for employment were showing. It's one thing to be able to boast to your mates that you bought at the bottom, but if that means the investor has an extended period of low or no rentals then that takes the gloss off the purchase.
I would say that anytime is a great time to buy a house to live in if you can afford it.
If prices drop after you buy, trading up becomes cheaper because ( generally ) everything else has dropped in unison.
Once you've bought a place, prices up or down mean nothing if your intention is simply to own a place to live in.
I've spent the great majority of my adult life as a homeowner.
I have never seen houses as a speculative asset. Just somewhere to live.
Like a loaf of bread is something to eat.
But when someone offers me silly money for a loaf of bread which I know is going to go very mouldy, what should I do?
Take the money of course.
Perth started to go mouldy about two years ago and it is getting really quite smelly right now.
Matthew, 30 Jan 2016, 09:21 AM Your simplistic view is so flawed it is not worth debating. The current oversupply will be swallowed in 12 months. By the time dumb shits like you realise this prices will already be rising.
If prices drop after you buy, trading up becomes cheaper because ( generally ) everything else has dropped in unison.
You are speaking from your perspective, which is that of a buyer with plenty of equity.
For a buyer using a high LVR loan (normal FTB) they don't have the ability to trade up if prices drop. The success of their plan depends on their ability to stick to their plan come hell or high water. If they can avoid a job loss or worse still a relationship breakdown, they will be fine.
As they gain equity through repayments and price rises their position gets stronger, and then they might be able to trade up, but not in a falling market.
Take risks - if you win you will become wealthy, if you lose you will become wise
No need to start waffling about clowns just yet Roddy. The rationale is to demonstrate the strong inverse correlation between commodity price growth and Sydney house price growth. The correlation can definitely be used to estimate impacts. https://explorable.com/statistical-correlation
As a rule of thumb, the following guidelines on strength of relationship are often useful (though many experts would somewhat disagree on the choice of boundaries).
Value of r Strength of relationship -1.0 to -0.5 or 1.0 to 0.5 Strong -0.5 to -0.3 or 0.3 to 0.5 Moderate -0.3 to -0.1 or 0.1 to 0.3 Weak -0.1 to 0.1 None or very weak
I would be in the camp that has 0.59 as moderate range.
Would you be kind enough to share that raw data please. You either forgot to give the raw data, or refused to do so.
A. How many people who live in Peppermint grove, also own a separate investment property - that is also in Peppermint grove?
B. If the answer for A=>1..... Why the hell would anyone invest in Peppermint Grove. 1.92% rental return, 3.7% average growth, except since 2013, it has lost on average $500,000 from the median.
C. So given it's a terrible place to invest - and also you need to drive a Maserati to even afford the doorman's fee, Where do you think, the majority of investors will start looking - not in Peppermint Grove
In X years time, when Peppermint grove is sitting at 5 mill median, for every single investor that manages to get a foot in the door there, there are 100,000 investors that cannot afford it and push prices up elsewhere.
Perth is elsewhere - and not effected by the silly things that occur in Sydney, or Peppermint Grove , until the Delta get's too high for the 100,000's of others.
Real-estate is irrational - it's not a business, there is no formula, it's making money off the hope someone will pay you more for something which you purchased prior.
Here is a quote from the ABS in 2004 regarding Perth Property.. Not a single mention of iron ore, mining boom, or jobs, but plenty about what happened in the Eastern States, and what had not been happening in Perth for the previous decade.
"THE RISE IN HOUSE PRICES
After a decade of modest gains, the price of established homes in Perth began to accelerate in 1999-2000. During the 1990s, the price of established homes in Perth increased at an average annual rate of 2.4%, slightly above the rise in the general level of prices (2.1%). In contrast, the average annual increase between 1999-2000 and 2003-04 was 10.5%, well above the 3.1% increase in the general price level. However, growth in established house prices in the latter period was below the national annual average of 13.5%, which was largely driven by dramatic price increases in Sydney and Melbourne. The price of new (project) homes, which excludes the cost of land, also increased considerably during this period, although at a more modest average of 6.5% per year, equivalent to the national increase."
That is a different thing.
Whenever you have an argument with someone, there comes a moment where you must ask yourself, whatever your political persuasion, 'am I the Nazi?'
I would be in the camp that has 0.59 as moderate range.
Would you be kind enough to share that raw data please. You either forgot to give the raw data, or refused to do so.
Typically correlation is only a preliminary step in most research processes. With a coeff as benign as 0.59, you would want to be re-framing your data. For example, if my hypothesis is that low commodity prices have a positive impact on Sydney house prices, you would probably want to frame the rate of change in commodity prices with an actual index. It makes far more sense. Secondly, to meet that objective, the correlation output would be something that would be better evaluated from the process of running a linear regression.
You can see that mother cat has little understanding of basic research method, but really he is no different than the majority of the population. Most people only read research that is transformed for them through the media. They have very little idea of what they're looking at. They simply read a commentary (which is sanctioned by a media organization) and fit their sentiments based on the emotional impact of what they see.
That's just waffle Roddy. It won't change the fact that Sydney house price growth tends to slow as commodity price growth accelerates, and vice versa.
Now that I've taught you about the inverse correlation, perhaps you won't keep on miscalling the Sydney housing market, as you have done for the past decade...
Khaderbhai
26 Oct 2016, 07:28 PM
Roddy's head will probably explode now. No doubt he'll start waffling about regressions.
Terry
28 Oct 2016, 01:38 PM
the correlation output would be something that would be better evaluated from the process of running a linear regression.
"The truth is that there are no good men, or bad men. It is the deeds that have goodness or badness in them. There are good deeds, and bad deeds. Men are just men."
I'd like to talk some more about neurons if that's OK?
No Id rather power it with my treadmill and cross trainer with the sonos music system going, wish Nintendo was not invented and don't even try to understand the Cbus lighting and automated blinds.
Newjerk? can you try harder than dig up another person's blog. My first promo was with Billabong and my name in English is modified with a T, am Perth born but also lived in Sydney to make my $$ It's Absolutely Fabulous if it includes brilliant locations, & high calibre tenants..what more does one want? Understand the power of the two "P"" or be financially challenged Even better when there is family who are property mad and one is born in some entitlements.....Understand that beautiful women are the exhibitionists we crave attention, whilst hot blooded men are the voyeurs ... A stunning woman can command and takes pleasure in being noticed. Seems not too many understand what it means to hold and own props and get threatened by those who do. Banks are considered to be law abiding and & rather boring places yeah not true . A bank balance sheet will show capital is dwarfed by their liabilities this means when a portions of loans is falling its problems for the bank.
That's just waffle Roddy. It won't change the fact that Sydney house price growth tends to slow as commodity price growth accelerates, and vice versa.
Now that I've taught you about the inverse correlation, perhaps you won't keep on miscalling the Sydney housing market, as you have done for the past decade...
So predictable.
still waiting for you to share that raw data... why the evasiveness ?
If you lifted the chart from another website, just hyperlink it.
That's just waffle Roddy. It won't change the fact that Sydney house price growth tends to slow as commodity price growth accelerates, and vice versa.
Now that I've taught you about the inverse correlation, perhaps you won't keep on miscalling the Sydney housing market, as you have done for the past decade...
So predictable.
Being attributed to "waffle" in a creepy clown skit is a positive thing.
Rastus2
28 Oct 2016, 02:58 PM
still waiting for you to share that raw data... why the evasiveness ?
If you lifted the chart from another website, just hyperlink it.
A chart like that could only be lifted from a hobbyist. From the way the data is prepared, it is most likely the work of mother cat in one of those frantic bursts of energy.
Being attributed to "waffle" in a creepy clown skit is a positive thing. A chart like that could only be lifted from a hobbyist. From the way the data is prepared, it is most likely the work of mother cat in one of those frantic bursts of energy.
well, that was what I thought, but the 24-month growth is a rather odd metric to grab... I assume it came from a report that was googled...
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