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Apartment glut warning: More cranes on Australian east coast than in North America
Topic Started: 21 Oct 2016, 01:35 PM (3,940 Views)
USianinPerth
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http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-10-21/real-estate-warning-more-cranes-in-australia-than-us/7954108

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One of the eye-opening statistics of the high rise apartment boom is that there are now more cranes servicing high rise apartment construction down the east coast of Australia than in major cities across North America.

The biannual crane count survey by global property and construction consultants Rider Levett Bucknall (RLB) found there were a record 528 cranes working above apartment blocks in Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane in the September quarter.

The RLB survey tallied 419 cranes plying their trade in the residential construction game across major North American cities including New York, Boston, Chicago, San Francisco, Los Angeles, Toronto and up to Calgary.

Over the past three years, the number of cranes in use for residential construction has grown an extraordinary 313 per cent.

However, growth has moderated sharply over the last quarter, with the number of cranes in Melbourne down from 124 to 109 and Brisbane down from 91 to 87.

Sydney is still booming, though, with residential cranes increasing from 239 to 258 over the past six months, while for the rest of Australia conditions were fairly flat with just three new cranes added to take the total to 74.

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Brisbane an inner-city boom, Melbourne and Sydney sprawl

The RLB activity heat-maps found that the demographics of the apartment super-cycle vary markedly between the cities.

While the maps count the total number of cranes, they are a very good proxy given 80 per cent are now assigned to high-rise dwellings, compared to less than 50 per cent in pre-boom days.

Activity in Sydney is spread out across large parts of city.

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The heat in Melbourne is centred on the CBD and Southbank, but also spreads out into the suburbs.

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The apartment boom in Brisbane is very much an inner-city phenomenon.

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This slowing in high-rise activity in Melbourne and Brisbane may be an early indicator that the boom's peak is nearing and construction will start to roll over.

Morgan Stanley recently estimated that the oversupply in the sector would be around 100,000 units which could spark a sudden downturn which in turn put around 200,000 jobs at risk.

Another investment bank, UBS, argues there is still a fair way to run in the boom, having raised its forecast for overall housing commencements to a record 228,000 in 2016 and a still strong 205,000 before easing back in 2018.

Completions are expected to peak in 2018 at 216,000.

"But within this, completions of (free-standing) houses already peaked last year, while in contrast the multi's super-cycle is still only about half done, with the number of units completed in 2018 likely to end up well over double the pre-boom trend," UBS economist George Tharenou noted.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9S2TO_beqKg]
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DragonGM
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Interesting stat.

I suppose not all cranes are created equal, but broadly speaking it does pose more questions.
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Bardon
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.
Edited by Bardon, 21 Oct 2016, 09:20 PM.
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Ex BP Golly
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I've always wanted to build a house out of cranes.

Can't wait to pick up a few cheap.
WHAT WOULD EDDIE DO? MAAAATE!
Share a cot with Milton?
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Blondie girl
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There is the saying cannot remember how it exactly goes that one should view the city skyline by the amount of cranes... and then checking if crane companies are going into receivership, getting renamed or dropping off like flies at the same timing .. lots = good stuff small amounts = not a good thing....
Newjerk? can you try harder than dig up another person's blog. My first promo was with Billabong and my name in English is modified with a T, am Perth born but also lived in Sydney to make my $$
It's Absolutely Fabulous if it includes brilliant locations, & high calibre tenants..what more does one want? Understand the power of the two "P"" or be financially challenged
Even better when there is family who are property mad and one is born in some entitlements.....Understand that beautiful women are the exhibitionists we crave attention, whilst hot blooded men are the voyeurs ... A stunning woman can command and takes pleasure in being noticed. Seems not too many understand what it means to hold and own props and get threatened by those who do.
Banks are considered to be law abiding and & rather boring places yeah not true . A bank balance sheet will show capital is dwarfed by their liabilities this means when a portions of loans is falling its problems for the bank.
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USianinPerth
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The Australian population is ~ 1/16th the size of the United States. And that's not all of North America. On proportionality alone, how does that make any kind of financial sense? Not only all the eggs in one basket, but the basket teetering at the edge of a high rise building during gale force winds!
Edited by USianinPerth, 21 Oct 2016, 03:38 PM.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9S2TO_beqKg]
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Rufus
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USianinPerth
21 Oct 2016, 03:37 PM
The Australian population is ~ 1/16th the size of the United States. And that's not all of North America. On proportionality alone, how does that make any kind of financial sense? Not only all the eggs in one basket, but the basket teetering at the edge of a high rise building during gale force winds!
It's not the WHOLE of North America, just some selected cities.

Lets not get overexcited.
Take risks - if you win you will become wealthy, if you lose you will become wise
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Terry
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Rufus
21 Oct 2016, 03:42 PM
It's not the WHOLE of North America, just some selected cities.

Lets not get overexcited.
That's right. It's only more cranes than in New York, Boston, Chicago, San Francisco, Los Angeles, and those in and between Toronto and Calgary.
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Rufus
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Terry
21 Oct 2016, 03:58 PM
That's right. It's only more cranes than in New York, Boston, Chicago, San Francisco, Los Angeles, and those in and between Toronto and Calgary.
Happy to take a wager that construction numbers in the USA are way above the combined total of Sydney, Melbourne, and Brisbane.

How much would you like to put up?

You can get the data here - https://www.nahb.org/en/research/housing-economics/construction-statistics/state-and-local/building-permits-states-and-msas.aspx

About 1,182,000 dwellings are being constructed in the USA this year. Now tell me what is being built here?
Edited by Rufus, 21 Oct 2016, 04:11 PM.
Take risks - if you win you will become wealthy, if you lose you will become wise
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Ex BP Golly
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Terry
21 Oct 2016, 03:58 PM
That's right. It's only more cranes than in New York, Boston, Chicago, San Francisco, Los Angeles, and those in and between Toronto and Calgary.
I've got this gorgeous gully I want to build over, and a few booms will be awesome superstructure for it.

This is going to be great.
WHAT WOULD EDDIE DO? MAAAATE!
Share a cot with Milton?
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