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Citi's Bubble Meter for Australia
Topic Started: 12 Oct 2016, 02:40 AM (8,521 Views)
Jon Snow
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Khaderbhai
12 Oct 2016, 10:35 PM
"House price" seems to be just one of five components that go into Citi's overall "Bubble Meter" Z score.

"House Price" is itself a Z score.
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And yes, Terry probably has no idea how to calculate a Z score, and he certainly doesn't have a clue how Citi combine and manipulate those five components to calculate the mean, variance, SD and Z.
Are you saying that the Bubble Meter Z score is calculated differently from the individual component Z scores? How is it done then?

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Terry
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Khaderbhai
12 Oct 2016, 10:35 PM
You've been reading up. That's good. Yes, the SD is needed to calculate Z. Z simply represents the number of SD away from the mean.


"House price" seems to be just one of five components that go into Citi's overall "Bubble Meter" Z score. And yes, Terry probably has no idea how to calculate a Z score, and he certainly doesn't have a clue how Citi combine and manipulate those five components to calculate the mean, variance, SD and Z.
Oh, it's quite obvious mother cat.

Now what statistical technique is used to determine whether or not one of the components is in a bubble? I will give you a clue. Each component is in a column and the year is in the rows.
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Khaderbhai
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Jon Snow
12 Oct 2016, 10:42 PM
"House Price" is itself a Z score.
We're discussing the Z score shown on the "Bubble Meter".
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Are you saying that the Bubble Meter Z score is calculated differently from the individual component Z scores? How is it done then?
I'm saying it's calculated using a different data set. It could even be a simple average of the other five Z scores.




Terry
12 Oct 2016, 10:42 PM
Each component is in a column and the year is in the rows.
Do you accept there are five components, not four as you originally claimed Roddy?
Edited by Khaderbhai, 12 Oct 2016, 10:57 PM.
Banks can't repossess your home simply because the market value falls. Australia's Consumer Credit Code says consumers aren't liable for things ordinarily outside their control and can't be held to obligations that could only be met by selling their home. Click for details.

"The truth is that there are no good men, or bad men. It is the deeds that have goodness or badness in them. There are good deeds, and bad deeds. Men are just men."
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Terry
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Khaderbhai
12 Oct 2016, 10:50 PM


I'm saying it's calculated using a different data set.



No it's not. The bubble meter z-score is calculated from the rows that comprise the bubble meter. You are not comparing the z-scores between independent samples that are completely different. That doesn't make any sense.
Edited by Terry, 12 Oct 2016, 11:04 PM.
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Khaderbhai
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Terry
12 Oct 2016, 10:58 PM
No it's not. The bubble meter z-score is calculated from the rows of the components that comprise the bubble meter.
Irrelevant Roddy. You can't calculate two different current Z scores from one data set. There can be only one current Z score per data set. The Z score for "House Price" is not calculated using the same data set as the Z score for "Mining Investment". Math 101.
Edited by Khaderbhai, 12 Oct 2016, 11:10 PM.
Banks can't repossess your home simply because the market value falls. Australia's Consumer Credit Code says consumers aren't liable for things ordinarily outside their control and can't be held to obligations that could only be met by selling their home. Click for details.

"The truth is that there are no good men, or bad men. It is the deeds that have goodness or badness in them. There are good deeds, and bad deeds. Men are just men."
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Terry
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Khaderbhai
12 Oct 2016, 11:08 PM
Irrelevant Roddy. You can't calculate two different current Z scores from one data set. There can be only one current Z score per data set. The Z score for "House Price" is not calculated using the same data set as the Z score for "Mining Investment". Math 101.
Yes it is. The z-score for "each component" is calculated across "all components". The bubble meter is the benchmark indicated in each year.

That's why you don't understand how the bubble meter is comprised and the statistical method used.

Edited by Terry, 12 Oct 2016, 11:17 PM.
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Khaderbhai
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Terry
12 Oct 2016, 11:14 PM
Yes it is.
Roddy, if you think you can calculate Z for "House Price" using the same data set that was used to calculate Z for "Mining Investment", then I guess you're living in some sort of parallel universe. Probably the universe where five components become four, just like magic. :lol
Edited by Khaderbhai, 12 Oct 2016, 11:17 PM.
Banks can't repossess your home simply because the market value falls. Australia's Consumer Credit Code says consumers aren't liable for things ordinarily outside their control and can't be held to obligations that could only be met by selling their home. Click for details.

"The truth is that there are no good men, or bad men. It is the deeds that have goodness or badness in them. There are good deeds, and bad deeds. Men are just men."
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Terry
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Khaderbhai
12 Oct 2016, 11:16 PM
Roddy, if you think you can calculate Z for "House Price" using the same data set that was used to calculate Z for "Mining Investment", then I guess you're living in some sort of parallel universe. Probably the universe where five components become four, just like magic. :lol
Of course you can. That is the analytical method used. The answer to the basic statistical question asked. Once again, the columns are the components, the rows are the years.
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Khaderbhai
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Terry
12 Oct 2016, 11:21 PM
Of course you can.
No you can't Roddy.

The data set used to calculate Z for House Prices would be a sample of house price data (hopefully price/income ratios - nothing else would have much relevance).

The data set used to calculate Z for Mining Investment would be a sample of Mining Investment figures.

Different data sets Roddy.

Perhaps in your parallel universe you can use a set of mining data to calculate Z for house prices. :lol

Anyway, do you concede that there are five components, not four? This should be your first step to understanding the data...
Edited by Khaderbhai, 12 Oct 2016, 11:33 PM.
Banks can't repossess your home simply because the market value falls. Australia's Consumer Credit Code says consumers aren't liable for things ordinarily outside their control and can't be held to obligations that could only be met by selling their home. Click for details.

"The truth is that there are no good men, or bad men. It is the deeds that have goodness or badness in them. There are good deeds, and bad deeds. Men are just men."
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Terry
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Khaderbhai
12 Oct 2016, 11:32 PM
No you can't Roddy.

The data set used to calculate Z for House Prices would be a sample of house price data (hopefully price/income ratios - nothing else would have much relevance).

The data set used to calculate Z for Mining Investment would be a sample of Mining Investment figures.

Different data sets Roddy.

Perhaps in your parallel universe you can use a set of mining data to calculate Z for house prices. :lol

Anyway, do you concede that there are five components, not four? This should be your first step to understanding the data...
Like I said mother cat. You have no idea what you are talking about. Even the rubbish you say doesn't make sense.

For example, explain how can you calculate a z-score on a price / income ratio? That's moronic. You would get an E in high school maths.

Secondly, explain how you calculate a z-score on an annual mining investment figure. Equally moronic.

Thirdly, assuming that the above were possible, how can you compare z-scores across entirely different measures and what is the point?

The graphs are a clear indication of what Citi has done.

If I want to calculate a z-score for each component across a range of years, what is the first thing to do?

If you cannot answer that question, just admit it.

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