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Citi's Bubble Meter for Australia
Topic Started: 12 Oct 2016, 02:40 AM (8,522 Views)
Khaderbhai
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Rastus2
12 Oct 2016, 08:36 PM
That's an interesting way to dodge my questions while demanding others answer yours... perhaps they are not interested in your obsession over your own questions...
Not interested.
Jon Snow
12 Oct 2016, 08:37 PM
What's the difference?
SD is the square root of the variance.
Edited by Khaderbhai, 12 Oct 2016, 08:44 PM.
Banks can't repossess your home simply because the market value falls. Australia's Consumer Credit Code says consumers aren't liable for things ordinarily outside their control and can't be held to obligations that could only be met by selling their home. Click for details.

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Terry
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Khaderbhai
12 Oct 2016, 07:19 PM
Nice to see a bit of self-reflection from you at last Roddy.

Just not interested in your Shadow obsession.
Not me mother cat. I know what the bubble meter is, but not enough to know how it is constructed. What is more interesting is how this is dished out to audiences who don't have the ability to understand it. How you run with it in a repertoire reflects on what you know. You wouldn't have the ability to understand what the data set is, let alone how z-scores are applied as a measure.
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Khaderbhai
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Terry
12 Oct 2016, 09:00 PM
Not me mother cat.
Yes you Roddy.

Quote:
 
I know what the bubble meter is
I don't think you do Roddy.

The "bubble meter" is simply a promotional tool designed to elicit an emotional response from sheep like yourself who lack the intellectual capacity to understand it. You see 'Z score' on a chart and get all excited, even though you've got no idea how to apply a Z score, and you certainly don't know how Citi calculated the Z score shown on their chart.

But the promotional nature of the chart seems to have been successful, judging by your haste to promote it in your thread, even though you don't have a clue what it means.
Edited by Khaderbhai, 12 Oct 2016, 09:18 PM.
Banks can't repossess your home simply because the market value falls. Australia's Consumer Credit Code says consumers aren't liable for things ordinarily outside their control and can't be held to obligations that could only be met by selling their home. Click for details.

"The truth is that there are no good men, or bad men. It is the deeds that have goodness or badness in them. There are good deeds, and bad deeds. Men are just men."
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Jon Snow
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Khaderbhai
12 Oct 2016, 08:42 PM
SD is the square root of the variance.
So, the SD can be calculated from the variance, right? So, if you know the variance, you know the SD. And visa-versa. Yeah?
Speak when you are angry and you will make the best speech you will ever regret.
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Khaderbhai
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Jon Snow
12 Oct 2016, 09:21 PM
So, the SD can be calculated from the variance, right? So, if you know the variance, you know the SD. And visa-versa. Yeah?
Pretty much. Everything can be calculated from something else... the mean, variance, SD, Z etc.
Banks can't repossess your home simply because the market value falls. Australia's Consumer Credit Code says consumers aren't liable for things ordinarily outside their control and can't be held to obligations that could only be met by selling their home. Click for details.

"The truth is that there are no good men, or bad men. It is the deeds that have goodness or badness in them. There are good deeds, and bad deeds. Men are just men."
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Jon Snow
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Khaderbhai
12 Oct 2016, 09:36 PM
Pretty much. Everything can be calculated from something else... the mean, variance, SD, Z etc.
Pretty sure you need the whole sample to calculate the variance.

But if you know a mathematical shortcut to calculate the variance from the mean, I'd love to hear it.
Speak when you are angry and you will make the best speech you will ever regret.
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Khaderbhai
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Jon Snow
12 Oct 2016, 09:43 PM
Pretty sure you need the whole sample to calculate the variance.
Not just the variance. You actually use the whole sample to calculate the mean as well. There are a quite a few guides on the Internet that cover the process if you're interested in learning more. It's actually pretty straightforward (despite the fact that Roddy struggles with it).
Edited by Khaderbhai, 12 Oct 2016, 09:48 PM.
Banks can't repossess your home simply because the market value falls. Australia's Consumer Credit Code says consumers aren't liable for things ordinarily outside their control and can't be held to obligations that could only be met by selling their home. Click for details.

"The truth is that there are no good men, or bad men. It is the deeds that have goodness or badness in them. There are good deeds, and bad deeds. Men are just men."
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Jon Snow
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Khaderbhai
12 Oct 2016, 09:47 PM
Not just the variance. You actually use the whole sample to calculate the mean as well. There are a quite a few guides on the Internet that cover the process if you're interested in learning more. It's actually pretty straightforward (despite the fact that Roddy struggles with it).
I think I misunderstood what you were saying. I thought you were saying that in the same way the standard deviation can be calculated from the variance, so too can the variance be calculated from the mean.

My original enquiry was why you would state "you dont know the variance" AND "you dont know the standard deviation" when if you know one, you can calculate the other. I see now this was a redundancy on your part to embellish your rhetoric.

A Z score is a derivative of the standard deviation. A Z score of 1 is still a Z score of 1 regardless of the magnitude of the standard deviation.

Which brings me to this unusual comment:
Quote:
 
and you certainly don't know how Citi calculated the Z score shown on their chart.

AFAIK, and correct me if I am wrong here, there is only a single way to calculate a Z score. Did you mean that Terry doesn't know what the underlying sample is that was used to calculate the Z score?

On the second chart it says "House Price", but as variance requires two measurements, one could take a wild stab in the dark and guess that it is the rate of change that forms the basis for the Z score calculation.

More concerning however is the 2 standard deviation drop in the Terms of Trade. The Terms of Trade bubble has well and truly popped, as has the mining investment bubble. Next to pop will be the income bubble, something not measured by Citi in their bubble meter.

Speak when you are angry and you will make the best speech you will ever regret.
Ambrose Bierce
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Terry
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Khaderbhai
12 Oct 2016, 09:16 PM
Yes you Roddy.


I don't think you do Roddy.

The "bubble meter" is simply a promotional tool designed to elicit an emotional response from sheep like yourself who lack the intellectual capacity to understand it. You see 'Z score' on a chart and get all excited, even though you've got no idea how to apply a Z score, and you certainly don't know how Citi calculated the Z score shown on their chart.

But the promotional nature of the chart seems to have been successful, judging by your haste to promote it in your thread, even though you don't have a clue what it means.
OK mother cat. Let's see how much you know.

We have 5 components in the bubble meter. The data is normalized across the 4 components. Which statistical technique would be used to determine if the z-score of any of the 5 components is in bubble territory?

Not too complicated if you claim to understand what it all means.

Somehow I don't think you will be able to identify or guess the technique, but I will give you a clue. The technique is an acronym, but you are welcome to use the full name if you wish.
Jon Snow
12 Oct 2016, 10:21 PM


A Z score is a derivative of the standard deviation. A Z score of 1 is still a Z score of 1 regardless of the magnitude of the standard deviation.

Yes, that is correct. The z-score is a derivative of the SD, but the z-score itself, positive or negative, doesn't indicate whether house prices are in bubble territory or not.
Edited by Terry, 12 Oct 2016, 10:39 PM.
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Khaderbhai
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Jon Snow
12 Oct 2016, 10:21 PM
A Z score is a derivative of the standard deviation. A Z score of 1 is still a Z score of 1 regardless of the magnitude of the standard deviation.
You've been reading up. That's good. Yes, the SD is needed to calculate Z. Z simply represents the number of SD away from the mean.

Jon Snow
12 Oct 2016, 10:21 PM
...Terry doesn't know what the underlying sample is that was used to calculate the Z score?

On the second chart it says "House Price"...
"House price" seems to be just one of five components that go into Citi's overall "Bubble Meter" Z score. And yes, Terry probably has no idea how to calculate a Z score, and he certainly doesn't have a clue how Citi combine and manipulate those five components to calculate the mean, variance, SD and Z.


Terry
12 Oct 2016, 10:29 PM
OK mother cat. Let's see how much you know.

We have 4 components in the bubble meter. The data is normalized across the 4 components...
Roddy, you can't even get that much right. You need to go back to basics before tackling anything more complex.

There are five components.
Edited by Khaderbhai, 12 Oct 2016, 10:41 PM.
Banks can't repossess your home simply because the market value falls. Australia's Consumer Credit Code says consumers aren't liable for things ordinarily outside their control and can't be held to obligations that could only be met by selling their home. Click for details.

"The truth is that there are no good men, or bad men. It is the deeds that have goodness or badness in them. There are good deeds, and bad deeds. Men are just men."
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
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