"It were not best that we should all think alike; it is difference of opinion that makes horse races." - Mark Twain on why he avoids discussing house prices over at MacroBusiness. "Buy land, they're not making any more of it." - Georgist Land Tax proponent Mark Twain laughing in his grave at humourless idiots like skamy that continually use this quip to justify housing bubbles.
Most people will have no idea what they're looking at.
If you've no idea what you're looking at, then why bother posting it Roddy?
I'm quite certain you can't explain why Z moved from 0.5 SD below the population mean, to 1 SD above between 2000 and 2003. Nor why that change reversed between 2011 and 2015. Do you even know the values of μ and σ here? I doubt it Roddy. You don't really understand this data.
The interesting point is that last time Z was at -0.5 (in 2000) Sydney house prices boomed for the following three years. It was Sydney strongest growth phase.
So if history repeats, then your bubble meter is predicting a boom. That must be pretty frustrating for you.
"The truth is that there are no good men, or bad men. It is the deeds that have goodness or badness in them. There are good deeds, and bad deeds. Men are just men."
If you've no idea what you're looking at, then why bother posting it Roddy?
I'm quite certain you can't explain why Z moved from 0.5 SD below the population mean, to 1 SD above between 2000 and 2003. Nor why that change reversed between 2011 and 2015. Do you even know the values of μ and σ here? I doubt it Roddy. You don't really understand this data.
The interesting point is that last time Z was at -0.5 (in 2000) Sydney house prices boomed for the following three years. It was Sydney strongest growth phase.
So if history repeats, then your bubble meter is predicting a boom. That must be pretty frustrating for you.
Demonstrating your ignorance of basic statistics again MC. You're shameless.
John Frum
12 Oct 2016, 06:56 AM
Go on then Tezza - enlighten the mouzealots.
Sorry I cannot enlighten the mosquitoes. There is not enough information to understand how the benchmarks are constructed. Furthermore, these graphs are reproduced in the media and the comms graduates and journos are also unlikely to understand what they're looking at. You cannot expect the suburbanites to say anything: Most will also have no idea and are too afraid to ask.
Demonstrating your ignorance of basic statistics again MC. You're shameless.
That's an interesting way to dodge my questions Roddy.
So, to summarise...
1. You don't know the mean 2. You don't know the variance 3. You don't know the standard deviation 4. You can't explain the movements in Z score 5. You can't explain why Sydney boomed for three years after your 'bubble meter' was last at this level in 2000
Thanks for confirming you don't understand the data Roddy. You have no idea what you're looking at.
"The truth is that there are no good men, or bad men. It is the deeds that have goodness or badness in them. There are good deeds, and bad deeds. Men are just men."
That's an interesting way to dodge my questions Roddy.
So, to summarise...
1. You don't know the mean 2. You don't know the variance 3. You don't know the standard deviation 4. You can't explain the movements in Z score 5. You can't explain why Sydney boomed for three years after your 'bubble meter' was last at this level in 2000
Thanks for confirming you don't understand the data Roddy. You have no idea what you're looking at.
More importantly, you don't know what the data represents and how it is used to construct the bubble meter. You don't ask those questions because you don't know understand what you're looking at. Rolling out a repertoire doesn't change that MC.
More importantly, you don't know what the data represents and how it is used to construct the bubble meter. You don't ask those questions because you don't know understand what you're looking at. Rolling out a repertoire doesn't change that MC.
Waffle.
If you understand the chart you posted, then answer the questions.
I'm quite certain you can't answer, because you have no idea what the data means, or how the chart was created.
What we do know for certain, is that last time your 'bubble meter' was at this level, in 2000, Sydney property boomed for the following three years.
"The truth is that there are no good men, or bad men. It is the deeds that have goodness or badness in them. There are good deeds, and bad deeds. Men are just men."
Your posts are waffle Roddy. You're waffling out of frustration, because yet again you started a thread to try and make yourself look smart, but ended up looking like a dope when it was revealed that you don't even know what the data means or how your silly 'bubble meter' was constructed. You simply don't understand the charts you're looking at. Waffling isn't going to change that Roddy.
"The truth is that there are no good men, or bad men. It is the deeds that have goodness or badness in them. There are good deeds, and bad deeds. Men are just men."
Your posts are waffle Roddy. You're waffling out of frustration, because yet again you started a thread to try and make yourself look smart, but ended up looking like a dope when it was revealed that you don't even know what the data means or how your silly 'bubble meter' was constructed. You simply don't understand the charts you're looking at. Waffling isn't going to change that Roddy.
Not my research mother cat. It's that of the researchers at Citi. You might want to find out where their offices are and put on your creepy clown costume if you want to confront them.
Point remains: The suburbanites are most likely to have no idea what they're looking at, but the comms grads and journos publish it anyway.
Australian Property Forum is an economics and finance forum dedicated to discussion of Australian and global real estate markets and macroeconomics, including house prices, housing affordability, and the likelihood of a property crash. Is there an Australian housing bubble? Will house prices crash, boom or stagnate? Is the Australian property market a pyramid scheme or Ponzi scheme? Can house prices really rise forever? These are the questions we address on Australian Property Forum, the premier real estate site for property bears, bulls, investors, and speculators. Members may also discuss matters related to finance, modern monetary theory (MMT), debt deflation, cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin Ethereum and Ripple, property investing, landlords, tenants, debt consolidation, reverse home equity loans, the housing shortage, negative gearing, capital gains tax, land tax and macro prudential regulation.
Forum Rules:
The main forum may be used to discuss property, politics, economics and finance, precious metals, crypto currency, debt management, generational divides, climate change, sustainability, alternative energy, environmental topics, human rights or social justice issues, and other topics on a case by case basis. Topics unsuitable for the main forum may be discussed in the lounge. You agree you won't use this forum to post material that is illegal, private, defamatory, pornographic, excessively abusive or profane, threatening, or invasive of another forum member's privacy. Don't post NSFW content. Racist or ethnic slurs and homophobic comments aren't tolerated. Accusing forum members of serious crimes is not permitted. Accusations, attacks, abuse or threats, litigious or otherwise, directed against the forum or forum administrators aren't tolerated and will result in immediate suspension of your account for a number of days depending on the severity of the attack. No spamming or advertising in the main forum. Spamming includes repeating the same message over and over again within a short period of time. Don't post ALL CAPS thread titles. The Advertising and Promotion Subforum may be used to promote your Australian property related business or service. Active members of the forum who contribute regularly to main forum discussions may also include a link to their product or service in their signature block. Members are limited to one actively posting account each. A secondary account may be used solely for the purpose of maintaining a blog as long as that account no longer posts in threads. Any member who believes another member has violated these rules may report the offending post using the report button.
Australian Property Forum complies with ASIC Regulatory Guide 162 regarding Internet Discussion Sites. Australian Property Forum is not a provider of financial advice. Australian Property Forum does not in any way endorse the views and opinions of its members, nor does it vouch for for the accuracy or authenticity of their posts. It is not permitted for any Australian Property Forum member to post in the role of a licensed financial advisor or to post as the representative of a financial advisor. It is not permitted for Australian Property Forum members to ask for or offer specific buy, sell or hold recommendations on particular stocks, as a response to a request of this nature may be considered the provision of financial advice.
Views expressed on this forum are not representative of the forum owners. The forum owners are not liable or responsible for comments posted. Information posted does not constitute financial or legal advice. The forum owners accept no liability for information posted, nor for consequences of actions taken on the basis of that information. By visiting or using this forum, members and guests agree to be bound by the Zetaboards Terms of Use.
This site may contain copyright material (i.e. attributed snippets from online news reports), the use of which has not always been specifically authorized by the copyright owner. Such content is posted to advance understanding of environmental, political, human rights, economic, democratic, scientific, and social justice issues. This constitutes 'fair use' of such copyright material as provided for in section 107 of US Copyright Law. In accordance with Title 17 U.S.C. Section 107, the material on this site is distributed for research and educational purposes only. If you wish to use this material for purposes that go beyond 'fair use', you must obtain permission from the copyright owner. Such material is credited to the true owner or licensee. We will remove from the forum any such material upon the request of the owners of the copyright of said material, as we claim no credit for such material.
Privacy Policy: Australian Property Forum uses third party advertising companies to serve ads when you visit our site. These third party advertising companies may collect and use information about your visits to Australian Property Forum as well as other web sites in order to provide advertisements about goods and services of interest to you. If you would like more information about this practice and to know your choices about not having this information used by these companies, click here: Google Advertising Privacy FAQ
Australian Property Forum is hosted by Zetaboards. Please refer also to the Zetaboards Privacy Policy