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Citi's Bubble Meter for Australia
Topic Started: 12 Oct 2016, 02:40 AM (8,512 Views)
Terry
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Measuring bubbles with z scores is going to frustrate a few people. Most people will have no idea what they're looking at.

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John Frum
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Go on then Tezza - enlighten the mouzealots.
"It were not best that we should all think alike; it is difference of opinion that makes horse races." - Mark Twain on why he avoids discussing house prices over at MacroBusiness.
"Buy land, they're not making any more of it." - Georgist Land Tax proponent Mark Twain laughing in his grave at humourless idiots like skamy that continually use this quip to justify housing bubbles.
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Khaderbhai
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Wealthy Suburbanite

Terry
12 Oct 2016, 02:40 AM
Most people will have no idea what they're looking at.
If you've no idea what you're looking at, then why bother posting it Roddy?

I'm quite certain you can't explain why Z moved from 0.5 SD below the population mean, to 1 SD above between 2000 and 2003. Nor why that change reversed between 2011 and 2015. Do you even know the values of μ and σ here? I doubt it Roddy. You don't really understand this data.

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The interesting point is that last time Z was at -0.5 (in 2000) Sydney house prices boomed for the following three years. It was Sydney strongest growth phase.

So if history repeats, then your bubble meter is predicting a boom. That must be pretty frustrating for you.
Edited by Khaderbhai, 12 Oct 2016, 08:15 AM.
Banks can't repossess your home simply because the market value falls. Australia's Consumer Credit Code says consumers aren't liable for things ordinarily outside their control and can't be held to obligations that could only be met by selling their home. Click for details.

"The truth is that there are no good men, or bad men. It is the deeds that have goodness or badness in them. There are good deeds, and bad deeds. Men are just men."
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Terry
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Khaderbhai
12 Oct 2016, 07:28 AM
If you've no idea what you're looking at, then why bother posting it Roddy?

I'm quite certain you can't explain why Z moved from 0.5 SD below the population mean, to 1 SD above between 2000 and 2003. Nor why that change reversed between 2011 and 2015. Do you even know the values of μ and σ here? I doubt it Roddy. You don't really understand this data.

Posted Image

The interesting point is that last time Z was at -0.5 (in 2000) Sydney house prices boomed for the following three years. It was Sydney strongest growth phase.

So if history repeats, then your bubble meter is predicting a boom. That must be pretty frustrating for you.
Demonstrating your ignorance of basic statistics again MC. You're shameless.
John Frum
12 Oct 2016, 06:56 AM
Go on then Tezza - enlighten the mouzealots.
Sorry I cannot enlighten the mosquitoes. There is not enough information to understand how the benchmarks are constructed. Furthermore, these graphs are reproduced in the media and the comms graduates and journos are also unlikely to understand what they're looking at. You cannot expect the suburbanites to say anything: Most will also have no idea and are too afraid to ask.
Edited by Terry, 12 Oct 2016, 10:10 AM.
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Khaderbhai
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Terry
12 Oct 2016, 09:59 AM
Demonstrating your ignorance of basic statistics again MC. You're shameless.
That's an interesting way to dodge my questions Roddy.

So, to summarise...

1. You don't know the mean
2. You don't know the variance
3. You don't know the standard deviation
4. You can't explain the movements in Z score
5. You can't explain why Sydney boomed for three years after your 'bubble meter' was last at this level in 2000

Thanks for confirming you don't understand the data Roddy. You have no idea what you're looking at.
Edited by Khaderbhai, 12 Oct 2016, 10:19 AM.
Banks can't repossess your home simply because the market value falls. Australia's Consumer Credit Code says consumers aren't liable for things ordinarily outside their control and can't be held to obligations that could only be met by selling their home. Click for details.

"The truth is that there are no good men, or bad men. It is the deeds that have goodness or badness in them. There are good deeds, and bad deeds. Men are just men."
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Terry
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Khaderbhai
12 Oct 2016, 10:17 AM
That's an interesting way to dodge my questions Roddy.

So, to summarise...

1. You don't know the mean
2. You don't know the variance
3. You don't know the standard deviation
4. You can't explain the movements in Z score
5. You can't explain why Sydney boomed for three years after your 'bubble meter' was last at this level in 2000

Thanks for confirming you don't understand the data Roddy. You have no idea what you're looking at.
More importantly, you don't know what the data represents and how it is used to construct the bubble meter. You don't ask those questions because you don't know understand what you're looking at. Rolling out a repertoire doesn't change that MC.
Edited by Terry, 12 Oct 2016, 10:24 AM.
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Khaderbhai
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Wealthy Suburbanite

Terry
12 Oct 2016, 10:23 AM
More importantly, you don't know what the data represents and how it is used to construct the bubble meter. You don't ask those questions because you don't know understand what you're looking at. Rolling out a repertoire doesn't change that MC.
Waffle.

If you understand the chart you posted, then answer the questions.

I'm quite certain you can't answer, because you have no idea what the data means, or how the chart was created.

What we do know for certain, is that last time your 'bubble meter' was at this level, in 2000, Sydney property boomed for the following three years.
Edited by Khaderbhai, 12 Oct 2016, 10:27 AM.
Banks can't repossess your home simply because the market value falls. Australia's Consumer Credit Code says consumers aren't liable for things ordinarily outside their control and can't be held to obligations that could only be met by selling their home. Click for details.

"The truth is that there are no good men, or bad men. It is the deeds that have goodness or badness in them. There are good deeds, and bad deeds. Men are just men."
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Terry
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Khaderbhai
12 Oct 2016, 10:24 AM
Waffle.

If you understand the chart you posted, then answer the questions.

I'm quite certain you can't answer, because you have no idea what the data means, or how the chart was created.

What we do know for certain, is that last time your 'bubble meter' was at this level, in 2000, Sydney property boomed for the following three years.
The data is "waffle"? You don't even know what the data is MC, therefore the graphs are meaningless.
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Khaderbhai
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Wealthy Suburbanite

Terry
12 Oct 2016, 10:32 AM
The data is "waffle"?
Your posts are waffle Roddy. You're waffling out of frustration, because yet again you started a thread to try and make yourself look smart, but ended up looking like a dope when it was revealed that you don't even know what the data means or how your silly 'bubble meter' was constructed. You simply don't understand the charts you're looking at. Waffling isn't going to change that Roddy.
Edited by Khaderbhai, 12 Oct 2016, 10:56 AM.
Banks can't repossess your home simply because the market value falls. Australia's Consumer Credit Code says consumers aren't liable for things ordinarily outside their control and can't be held to obligations that could only be met by selling their home. Click for details.

"The truth is that there are no good men, or bad men. It is the deeds that have goodness or badness in them. There are good deeds, and bad deeds. Men are just men."
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Terry
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Khaderbhai
12 Oct 2016, 10:52 AM
Your posts are waffle Roddy. You're waffling out of frustration, because yet again you started a thread to try and make yourself look smart, but ended up looking like a dope when it was revealed that you don't even know what the data means or how your silly 'bubble meter' was constructed. You simply don't understand the charts you're looking at. Waffling isn't going to change that Roddy.
Not my research mother cat. It's that of the researchers at Citi. You might want to find out where their offices are and put on your creepy clown costume if you want to confront them.

Point remains: The suburbanites are most likely to have no idea what they're looking at, but the comms grads and journos publish it anyway.
Edited by Terry, 12 Oct 2016, 11:05 AM.
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