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If you don't own a home by your 40s, you never will. And you'll end up poorer than those who do.; Silly bears who think they can rent their way to wealth are only fooling themselves...
Topic Started: 10 Oct 2016, 07:29 AM (8,613 Views)
Khaderbhai
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Terry
11 Oct 2016, 02:13 PM
You would need a simulator that is able to calculate all combinations of data points between 3 and -3 between the two variables
That may be what YOU would need Roddy. In fact, I suspect you'd need somebody else to do it for you. Fortunately, the rest of us don't suffer the same limitations.
Edited by Khaderbhai, 11 Oct 2016, 02:20 PM.
Banks can't repossess your home simply because the market value falls. Australia's Consumer Credit Code says consumers aren't liable for things ordinarily outside their control and can't be held to obligations that could only be met by selling their home. Click for details.

"The truth is that there are no good men, or bad men. It is the deeds that have goodness or badness in them. There are good deeds, and bad deeds. Men are just men."
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Terry
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Khaderbhai
11 Oct 2016, 02:20 PM
That may be what YOU would need Roddy. In fact, I suspect you'd need somebody else to do it for you. Fortunately, the rest of us don't suffer the same limitations.
Yes right mother cat. You build simulators on Excel to determine the outcome of buy / not buy over 70 years across combinations of 30 data points on two variables. Of course you do.
Edited by Terry, 11 Oct 2016, 02:37 PM.
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Khaderbhai
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Terry
11 Oct 2016, 02:35 PM
Yes right mother cat. You build simulators on Excel to determine the outcome of buy / not buy over 70 years
That's right Roddy. Pretty elementary stuff.
Banks can't repossess your home simply because the market value falls. Australia's Consumer Credit Code says consumers aren't liable for things ordinarily outside their control and can't be held to obligations that could only be met by selling their home. Click for details.

"The truth is that there are no good men, or bad men. It is the deeds that have goodness or badness in them. There are good deeds, and bad deeds. Men are just men."
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Terry
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Khaderbhai
11 Oct 2016, 02:41 PM
That's right Roddy. Pretty elementary stuff.
OK, cool. So assuming you have 30 data points across 2 variables, how many combinations do you have? 1770? What's your process for aggregating the numerical outcome across these combinations?
Edited by Terry, 11 Oct 2016, 03:02 PM.
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Khaderbhai
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Terry
11 Oct 2016, 02:58 PM
assuming you have 30 data points across 2 variables
On what do you base this assumption Roddy?
Banks can't repossess your home simply because the market value falls. Australia's Consumer Credit Code says consumers aren't liable for things ordinarily outside their control and can't be held to obligations that could only be met by selling their home. Click for details.

"The truth is that there are no good men, or bad men. It is the deeds that have goodness or badness in them. There are good deeds, and bad deeds. Men are just men."
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Trollie
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foxbat
11 Oct 2016, 10:18 AM
Yes, and the reason among others is they spend all their money on "expensive" housing.

They have no money to invest because they go out of their way to price eachother out of a house.

Dumb v Dumb
If everyone had $500,000 to spend a million dollar house would seem cheap.

Housing isn't making people poor, it's making them rich.
Terry
11 Oct 2016, 12:12 PM
2% deflation over 70 years will mean a million dollar price tag today will be approx $240,000 in 70 years. A lot of opportunity cost there mother cat. Secondly, if you assume price deflation of 2% on house prices over 70 years, isn't it mathematically broken to assume 2% deflation on the rental cost?
The biggest assumption roddy makes is that he's going to go from being completely wrong for 8 years to getting it right in the next 70.
Edited by Trollie, 11 Oct 2016, 03:03 PM.
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Terry
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Khaderbhai
11 Oct 2016, 03:00 PM
On what do you base this assumption Roddy?
1 decimal point for a bit of accuracy mother cat. Or is that not in the process? You know "3.0% inflation, buy" and "2.9 infation, not buy" could be a single combination, right?
Edited by Terry, 11 Oct 2016, 03:06 PM.
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Khaderbhai
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Terry
11 Oct 2016, 03:03 PM
1 decimal point for a bit of accuracy mother cat. Or is that not in the process?
You're over-complicating things again Roddy.

This is the sort of behaviour that causes your analysis paralysis, and resulted in you not buying that Sydney home a decade ago.
Banks can't repossess your home simply because the market value falls. Australia's Consumer Credit Code says consumers aren't liable for things ordinarily outside their control and can't be held to obligations that could only be met by selling their home. Click for details.

"The truth is that there are no good men, or bad men. It is the deeds that have goodness or badness in them. There are good deeds, and bad deeds. Men are just men."
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Terry
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Khaderbhai
11 Oct 2016, 03:06 PM
You're over-complicating things again Roddy.

This is the sort of behaviour that causes your analysis paralysis, and resulted in you not buying that Sydney home a decade ago.
Oh, I see. So your method is two variables: "buy / not buy" over a single dimension "inflation". So there are no combinations of different rates of inflation. Everything is the same. OK.

Do you see the basic problem with this kind of maths MC?
Edited by Terry, 11 Oct 2016, 03:15 PM.
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Khaderbhai
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Terry
11 Oct 2016, 03:08 PM
So your method is two variables: "buy / not buy" over a single dimension "inflation". So there are no combinations of different rates of inflation. Everything is the same.
No that's not it Roddy.

I can calculate based on an infinite range of values for price and rent inflation, as well as the other costs associated with ownership and renting.

Excel is pretty flexible like that.
Banks can't repossess your home simply because the market value falls. Australia's Consumer Credit Code says consumers aren't liable for things ordinarily outside their control and can't be held to obligations that could only be met by selling their home. Click for details.

"The truth is that there are no good men, or bad men. It is the deeds that have goodness or badness in them. There are good deeds, and bad deeds. Men are just men."
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