Welcome Guest [Log In] [Register]


Reply
  • Pages:
  • 1
  • 7
2017 coming; Where is the crash
Topic Started: 9 Oct 2016, 09:41 PM (4,542 Views)
Matthew
Default APF Avatar


Sydneyite
10 Oct 2016, 08:42 PM
Early 90s. I was saving on pre grad and graduate wages. First house cost 6 x my income when I bought, and was cheaper than the Sydney median house price. Initial mortgage rate was around 10%. I took in house mates who paid me rent that helped pay off that first house mortgage.
Similar for us. First house was 5x single wage. Second house was 3 x our wage combined wage. Third house cost about 10x my wage, but paid for with the assistance of our loving tenants and savings from debt free properties before we bought it as well as dividends from shares and interest from term deposits.

Paying it off faster than we hoped was assisted by ever reducing interest rates and we now have no debt again about 5 years sooner than we thought we would.

Now we have a bucket of spare money to invest for ours, our childrens and grandchildrens futures because we aren't paying for shelter.

It is hard to get in for sure. It is easy to stay in. I prefer to be in than out.
My only hope for my three boys is that they turn out nothing at all like Chris.
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
A Lurker
Default APF Avatar


I bought my first home in Sydney in 2004. I saved for about 6 months and borrowed over 90%. A bit scary at the time but has been well worth it. Price was about 3x combined gross income, maybe 4x.
Edited by A Lurker, 10 Oct 2016, 10:36 PM.
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
Blondie girl
Member Avatar


Black Panther
9 Oct 2016, 09:41 PM
Put simply, 2017 is just around the corner, and the big crash is still missing in action.

Perth's minor falls after prices more than trebling in the 2000's provides the dumbest of bears some circle jerk relief.

Will the big crash happen in 2017 ? Is this the last gambit for the Bears ?

Post your opinions. :tu:
The world is supposed to end on the 31st of this month.

No comment.

:lol
Newjerk? can you try harder than dig up another person's blog. My first promo was with Billabong and my name in English is modified with a T, am Perth born but also lived in Sydney to make my $$
It's Absolutely Fabulous if it includes brilliant locations, & high calibre tenants..what more does one want? Understand the power of the two "P"" or be financially challenged
Even better when there is family who are property mad and one is born in some entitlements.....Understand that beautiful women are the exhibitionists we crave attention, whilst hot blooded men are the voyeurs ... A stunning woman can command and takes pleasure in being noticed. Seems not too many understand what it means to hold and own props and get threatened by those who do.
Banks are considered to be law abiding and & rather boring places yeah not true . A bank balance sheet will show capital is dwarfed by their liabilities this means when a portions of loans is falling its problems for the bank.
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
Jon Snow
Member Avatar


Rufus
10 Oct 2016, 08:20 PM
Not necessarily. Anyone with assets and loans against those assets is making out like a bandit as the cost of those debts is plunging.
That's how the system works. The rich get richer.
Quote:
 
In addition, if asset prices rise solely because debt is cheap then why are houses half price in Brisbane and even less in Adelaide, why are Perth house prices going down when money is getting cheaper. There have to be local reasons.
I don't believe I said they rise solely because debt is cheap. But your point is well made.
Quote:
 
It actually raises some questions for me. I can clear all debts, but it's probably not worth my while to do that. Buying more assets instead becomes more attractive as rates go lower. In fact they don't even have to fall, just remain low for a long time, and I expect them to do that.
Cash is returning 2.5% and is considered risk free. Sydney property is returning 10% and according to our local time traveling Indian serial killer, will continue to do so for the foreseeable future. There really is not reason to convert to cash, unless you think that property is now high risk, and the risk-weighted return is better in cash.

Trollie
10 Oct 2016, 08:46 PM
What's more likely is I got bored of you being thick
So, you aren't even smart enough to know how stupid you sound. Plonk.

b_b
10 Oct 2016, 09:46 PM
But the NPV of other living costs are decreasing.
True, although for the young, the cost of servicing their debt will be the highest individual cost.
Quote:
 
So the issue comes down to asset prices. The belief asset prices fall in a deflationary environment is an assumption. That is not always the case.
Even if asset prices stay flat, I think there is still a liquidity trap as young people at the bottom of the ladder will see their real incomes decline, and so will be unable to take on the same size debts. But you could be right that if other living costs deflate enough, then disposable income will increase.

So, I think while the equation is probably complex, you may be right that it comes down to whether or not asset prices fall, creating a liquidity trap for borrowers and zombie loans/banks.
Edited by Jon Snow, 11 Oct 2016, 12:06 AM.
Speak when you are angry and you will make the best speech you will ever regret.
Ambrose Bierce
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
1 user reading this topic (1 Guest and 0 Anonymous)
ZetaBoards - Free Forum Hosting
Free Forums with no limits on posts or members.
« Previous Topic · Australian Property Forum · Next Topic »
Reply
  • Pages:
  • 1
  • 7



Australian Property Forum is an economics and finance forum dedicated to discussion of Australian and global real estate markets and macroeconomics, including house prices, housing affordability, and the likelihood of a property crash. Is there an Australian housing bubble? Will house prices crash, boom or stagnate? Is the Australian property market a pyramid scheme or Ponzi scheme? Can house prices really rise forever? These are the questions we address on Australian Property Forum, the premier real estate site for property bears, bulls, investors, and speculators. Members may also discuss matters related to finance, modern monetary theory (MMT), debt deflation, cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin Ethereum and Ripple, property investing, landlords, tenants, debt consolidation, reverse home equity loans, the housing shortage, negative gearing, capital gains tax, land tax and macro prudential regulation.

Forum Rules: The main forum may be used to discuss property, politics, economics and finance, precious metals, crypto currency, debt management, generational divides, climate change, sustainability, alternative energy, environmental topics, human rights or social justice issues, and other topics on a case by case basis. Topics unsuitable for the main forum may be discussed in the lounge. You agree you won't use this forum to post material that is illegal, private, defamatory, pornographic, excessively abusive or profane, threatening, or invasive of another forum member's privacy. Don't post NSFW content. Racist or ethnic slurs and homophobic comments aren't tolerated. Accusing forum members of serious crimes is not permitted. Accusations, attacks, abuse or threats, litigious or otherwise, directed against the forum or forum administrators aren't tolerated and will result in immediate suspension of your account for a number of days depending on the severity of the attack. No spamming or advertising in the main forum. Spamming includes repeating the same message over and over again within a short period of time. Don't post ALL CAPS thread titles. The Advertising and Promotion Subforum may be used to promote your Australian property related business or service. Active members of the forum who contribute regularly to main forum discussions may also include a link to their product or service in their signature block. Members are limited to one actively posting account each. A secondary account may be used solely for the purpose of maintaining a blog as long as that account no longer posts in threads. Any member who believes another member has violated these rules may report the offending post using the report button.

Australian Property Forum complies with ASIC Regulatory Guide 162 regarding Internet Discussion Sites. Australian Property Forum is not a provider of financial advice. Australian Property Forum does not in any way endorse the views and opinions of its members, nor does it vouch for for the accuracy or authenticity of their posts. It is not permitted for any Australian Property Forum member to post in the role of a licensed financial advisor or to post as the representative of a financial advisor. It is not permitted for Australian Property Forum members to ask for or offer specific buy, sell or hold recommendations on particular stocks, as a response to a request of this nature may be considered the provision of financial advice.

Views expressed on this forum are not representative of the forum owners. The forum owners are not liable or responsible for comments posted. Information posted does not constitute financial or legal advice. The forum owners accept no liability for information posted, nor for consequences of actions taken on the basis of that information. By visiting or using this forum, members and guests agree to be bound by the Zetaboards Terms of Use.

This site may contain copyright material (i.e. attributed snippets from online news reports), the use of which has not always been specifically authorized by the copyright owner. Such content is posted to advance understanding of environmental, political, human rights, economic, democratic, scientific, and social justice issues. This constitutes 'fair use' of such copyright material as provided for in section 107 of US Copyright Law. In accordance with Title 17 U.S.C. Section 107, the material on this site is distributed for research and educational purposes only. If you wish to use this material for purposes that go beyond 'fair use', you must obtain permission from the copyright owner. Such material is credited to the true owner or licensee. We will remove from the forum any such material upon the request of the owners of the copyright of said material, as we claim no credit for such material.

For more information go to Limitations on Exclusive Rights: Fair Use

Privacy Policy: Australian Property Forum uses third party advertising companies to serve ads when you visit our site. These third party advertising companies may collect and use information about your visits to Australian Property Forum as well as other web sites in order to provide advertisements about goods and services of interest to you. If you would like more information about this practice and to know your choices about not having this information used by these companies, click here: Google Advertising Privacy FAQ

Australian Property Forum is hosted by Zetaboards. Please refer also to the Zetaboards Privacy Policy