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2017 coming; Where is the crash
Topic Started: 9 Oct 2016, 09:41 PM (4,546 Views)
Rufus
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Simon_S
10 Oct 2016, 01:59 PM
Good for you b_b but the average mortgage holder will take 25-30 years before they can begin to plan for retirement.

Maybe you could explain how Interest rates will remain forever low?

LOL.....You can assume what ever you like. I'm still waiting for you to explain why Surpluses are the Root cause of Recessions and Depressions.

I must be incompetent if I read economic papers................Does that include the RBA, World Bank, US FED,BOJ and other Notable Economic Organisations and Notable Economists in their respected fields?

Is that like your Ross Garnaut call?
Just unbelievable. Stupidity to the moooooon.

Well people have tried to help you. You had your chance.
Take risks - if you win you will become wealthy, if you lose you will become wise
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Chris
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Trollie
10 Oct 2016, 11:11 AM
Yes, there is. Your ability to earn is limited, the longer you wait the more difficult it will be later.

There isn't a single bear on here who doesn't regret waiting. That fact speaks for itself.
This is true. It's one thing to believe something based on evidence you have at hand and the tacit knowledge you have formed based on you experience to a point. What's not okay is having your knowledge expanded, even if it is in stark contrast to what you believed to be true prior, and refuse to accept it. I believed houses were I certainty when it comes to a crash, now I realise how foolish that was and what it's cost me.

Financially I am farked compared to friends who have brought 5-10 years ago. The only thing I can do now is try to minimise how farked I will be because of my reluctance to buy. I am now so far behind I have inadvertently dragged myself, my wife and our family into a position where they will also pay for my poor decisions.

Simon, I hope you're nothing like me, I hope you're young enough to recover from your stance.
Edited by Chris, 10 Oct 2016, 03:31 PM.
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Sydneyite
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Simon_S
10 Oct 2016, 01:59 PM
Good for you b_b but the average mortgage holder will take 25-30 years before they can begin to plan for retirement.
I don't think the average is 25-30 years by the way - that would be the maximum time it takes. There are stats around that show the average duration of a mortgage in AU is something like 10-12 years, but that probably includes loans being paid down due to selling / upgrading.

I've paid off 3 PPOR mortgages (for 3 separate residences) over a 20 year period, with significant mortgage free periods at various times during that time, and now for several years since. First was paid off in 6 years, 2nd in 4 years (including extra borrowings to fund a significant renovation), and the 3rd in less than 3 years. Like b_b, being mortgage free means the following:

1) I don't have to pay any rent - just the upkeep on my house, which is a tiny fraction of what it would cost to rent an equivalent house. This gives me gobs of extra disposable income which I can invest

2) I have invested significant amounts of that spare disposable income into income generating financial assets over my various mortgage free years. I currently generate enough after tax passive income to cover about 50% of my typical annual living expenses. If I include the income generated from my super investments (which I cannot access until I am 60 of course), I actually generate in total 100% of what I need to live on right now! But as I still work and have gobs of disposable income anyway, I simply re-invest all that extra income.

3) When I do retire, I don't have to worry about paying rent - so I only need enough income to cover other mandatory and discretionary expenditure.

4) I have the option to increase the value of my property through further renovation / development.

5) I always also have the option of selling my house, and moving back "down" the property ladder, investing some of that equity into other income producing financial assets to boost my passive / retirement income, or to enable me to retire early (like now!) if I desired (which I don't). However, given that I am nearly "there" without the need to do this, my inclination is to keep living in my current house for the foreseeable future - meaning no reduction in lifestyle, living location, quality of house etc at all upon retirement in the future. I think it's better for my kids to stay here at least until they have both finished uni anyway - no school changes or having to re-build social circles etc, which probably means another 15-20 years as my youngest is only 4!
Edited by Sydneyite, 10 Oct 2016, 03:45 PM.
For Aussie property bears, "denial", is not just a long river in North Africa.....
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Trollie
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Simon_S
10 Oct 2016, 11:47 AM
So after 30 years of sacrifiice and hard work paying off your PPOR
Nope, very little sacrifice and no additional hard work compared to paying rent. I took me no where near 30 years either.

But don't let facts get in the way of your bleating. Go right ahead and follow your plan to be a life time renter.
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Terry
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Sydneyite
10 Oct 2016, 03:39 PM
I don't think the average is 25-30 years by the way - that would be the maximum time it takes. There are stats around that show the average duration of a mortgage in AU is something like 10-12 years, but that probably includes loans being paid down due to selling / upgrading.

I've paid off 3 PPOR mortgages (for 3 separate residences) in 22 years, with significant mortgage free periods at various times during that time. First was paid off in 6 years, 2nd in 4 years (including extra borrowings to fund a significant renovation), and the 3rd in less than 3 years. Like b_b, being mortgage free means the following:

1) I don't have to pay any rent - just the upkeep on my house, which is a tiny fraction of what it would cost to rent an equivalent house. This gives me gobs of extra disposable income which I can invest

2) I have invested significant amounts of that spare disposable income into income generating financial assets over my various mortgage free years. I currently generate enough after tax passive income to cover about 50% of my typical annual living expenses. If I include the income generated from my super investments (which I cannot access until I am 60 of course), I actually generate in total 100% of what I need to live on right now! But as I still work and have gobs of disposable income anyway, I simply re-invest all that extra income.

3) When I do retire, I don't have to worry about paying rent - so I only need to enough income to cover other mandatory and discretionary expenditure.

4) I have the option to increase the value of my property through further renovation / development.

5) I always also have the option of selling my house, and moving back "down" the property ladder, investing some of that equity into other income producing financial assets to boost my passive / retirement income, or to enable me to retire early (like now!) if I desired (which I don't).
Nice story of suburban evolution and self actualization. Only problem is that it requires all suburbanites to behave the same way under the same conditions for it to be perpetual.
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Maz
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Chris
10 Oct 2016, 03:29 PM
This is true. It's one thing to believe something based on evidence you have at hand and the tacit knowledge you have formed based on you experience to a point. What's not okay is having your knowledge expanded, even if it is in stark contrast to what you believed to be true prior, and refuse to accept it. I believed houses were I certainty when it comes to a crash, now I realise how foolish that was and what it's cost me.

Financially I am farked compared to friends who have brought 5-10 years ago. The only thing I can do now is try to minimise how farked I will be because of my reluctance to buy. I am now so far behind I have inadvertently dragged myself, my wife and our family into a position where they will also pay for my poor decisions.

Simon, I hope you're nothing like me, I hope you're young enough to recover from your stance.
This smells like one of shady's "sleeper" accounts. Next thing you'll be telling us you're a bear who "saw the light" after reading shadow's distorted doublespeak.
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Trollie
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Chris
10 Oct 2016, 03:29 PM
This is true. It's one thing to believe something based on evidence you have at hand and the tacit knowledge you have formed based on you experience to a point. What's not okay is having your knowledge expanded, even if it is in stark contrast to what you believed to be true prior, and refuse to accept it. I believed houses were I certainty when it comes to a crash, now I realise how foolish that was and what it's cost me.

Financially I am farked compared to friends who have brought 5-10 years ago. The only thing I can do now is try to minimise how farked I will be because of my reluctance to buy. I am now so far behind I have inadvertently dragged myself, my wife and our family into a position where they will also pay for my poor decisions.

Simon, I hope you're nothing like me, I hope you're young enough to recover from your stance.
Your words of wisdom are lost on Simon, he's a complete idiot.
Maz
10 Oct 2016, 03:48 PM
This smells like one of shady's "sleeper" accounts. Next thing you'll be telling us you're a bear who "saw the light" after reading shadow's distorted doublespeak.
Sure thing roddy.
Edited by Trollie, 10 Oct 2016, 03:55 PM.
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Sydneyite
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Maz
10 Oct 2016, 03:48 PM
This smells like one of shady's "sleeper" accounts. Next thing you'll be telling us you're a bear who "saw the light" after reading shadow's distorted doublespeak.
What is it with you bears and you conspiracy theories / tin foil hats!!! Chris has been around for ages, and argued on a range of topics incessantly with many of us here for a long time (years). He is no sock / plant.
For Aussie property bears, "denial", is not just a long river in North Africa.....
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Chris
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Maz
10 Oct 2016, 03:48 PM
This smells like one of shady's "sleeper" accounts. Next thing you'll be telling us you're a bear who "saw the light" after reading shadow's distorted doublespeak.
I am a bear but there is no light unfortunately. I don't agree with most of Shadows views, I think there was a period there when grey man argued Perth was to follow Sydney to the magical mil by 2020. One persons opinion is never enough to hang your hat on.

I'm not saying Simon should buy or not buy, I'm not saying Simon should do anything other than be forever objective.

I haven't purchased a house, planned to buy or even considered it, that's not to say I never will. I have just realised I was wrong with my stance and changed my view, that's allowed isn't it?
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Khaderbhai
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Wealthy Suburbanite

Chris
10 Oct 2016, 04:32 PM
I think there was a period there when grey man argued Perth was to follow Sydney to the magical mil by 2020
The Mighty Shadow's prophecy is that Perth prices will approach $1M by the end of 2021... http://australianpropertyforum.com/topic/10320022
Edited by Khaderbhai, 10 Oct 2016, 04:48 PM.
Banks can't repossess your home simply because the market value falls. Australia's Consumer Credit Code says consumers aren't liable for things ordinarily outside their control and can't be held to obligations that could only be met by selling their home. Click for details.

"The truth is that there are no good men, or bad men. It is the deeds that have goodness or badness in them. There are good deeds, and bad deeds. Men are just men."
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