RENTS have been slashed by up to half in parts of Sydney as landlords fight for tenants who now have more homes to choose from wage growth continues to stagnate...
Roddy, you don't understand the source data. You have no idea how these figures were calculated. You simply don't know your way around data.
Quote:
One thing’s for sure, the property mkt is a lousy bet at these prices with these fundamentals.
That's what you said about the Sydney market a decade ago Roddy.
"The truth is that there are no good men, or bad men. It is the deeds that have goodness or badness in them. There are good deeds, and bad deeds. Men are just men."
CoreLogic and SQM are different data sources. What is a "broader source"? Are you saying that the data is more representative? Why? Here's an opportunity to show you know your way around data.
The link you provide doesn't support the assumed weakness in the data. What is the relevance of the link?
Khaderbhai
6 Oct 2016, 11:19 AM
Trolls and stuff. Great work Roddy.
Roddy, you don't understand the source data. You have no idea how these figures were calculated.
That's what you said about the Sydney market a decade ago Roddy.
Troll repertoire mother cat. Paraphrasing someone else and editing it to hopefully cause a reaction.
"The truth is that there are no good men, or bad men. It is the deeds that have goodness or badness in them. There are good deeds, and bad deeds. Men are just men."
"The truth is that there are no good men, or bad men. It is the deeds that have goodness or badness in them. There are good deeds, and bad deeds. Men are just men."
CoreLogic and SQM are different data sources. What is a "broader source"? Are you saying that the data is more representative? Why? Here's an opportunity to show you know your way around data.
The link you provide doesn't support the assumed weakness in the data. What is the relevance of the link?
Core logic use data from realestate.com.au whilst SQM source data from all sources so it is a broader spread of data.
Beyond that I'm not prepared to expand. We did discuss this once before and you had no idea of what I was talking about, so lets leave it at that.
But regardless, fluctuations within a small suburb may or may not mean a change in rentals going forward. The smaller the sample the less effective it is, and as it's only advertised rents and not all rents, we are only sampling available data, we are not measuring all data as we do with sale prices.
Take risks - if you win you will become wealthy, if you lose you will become wise
Core logic use data from realestate.com.au whilst SQM source data from all sources so it is a broader spread of data.
Beyond that I'm not prepared to expand. We did discuss this once before and you had no idea of what I was talking about, so lets leave it at that.
But regardless, fluctuations within a small suburb may or may not mean a change in rentals going forward. The smaller the sample the less effective it is, and as it's only advertised rents and not all rents, we are only sampling available data, we are not measuring all data as we do with sale prices.
OK, so you need to ask yourself the following questions:
-- Would the bar graph be any different using SQM data? If so, to what extent? And why?
-- The bar graph shows changes at the capital city aggregate level. What do changes at the suburb level have to do with these aggregates?
-- To what extent is "advertised rents" representative of "all rents"? If you don't know, how can you dismiss the data? Sampling is the basis of research.
"The truth is that there are no good men, or bad men. It is the deeds that have goodness or badness in them. There are good deeds, and bad deeds. Men are just men."
OK, so you need to ask yourself the following questions:
-- Would the bar graph be any different using SQM data? If so, to what extent? And why?
-- The bar graph shows changes at the capital city aggregate level. What do changes at the suburb level have to do with these aggregates?
-- To what extent is "advertised rents" representative of "all rents"? If you don't know, how can you dismiss the data? Sampling is the basis of research.
You can search at suburb level with SQM and compare the data with Core Logic if you have it at suburb level. It does get difficult at postcode level as many postcodes cover several suburbs. Apples and oranges.
I'm not dismissing the data, I'm suggesting caution reading it. It's not perfect. For example in a small suburb with mostly 3 bed homes, if a large strata development completes then there will be a surge in units or villas for rent which compete with 3 bed homes but are not quite the same. That may or may not have a big effect on rents for 3 bed homes but it will affect the average or median rents, and the effect may or may not be short live.
On top of that, most new rents are extensions of existing rent contracts which are never advertised, so we don't know what they are, and nor are they included in the index. By contrast every single house sale is in the house price index even if it's only included in the revision.
If you look at the rents for a town like Moranbah you will see that it's completely unambiguous, they have fallen heavily, but fluctuations in a Sydney suburb could be just seasonal until we can see clear trends in that and nearby suburbs. http://www.sqmresearch.com.au/weekly-rents.php?postcode=4744&t=1
Take risks - if you win you will become wealthy, if you lose you will become wise
You can search at suburb level with SQM and compare the data with Core Logic if you have it at suburb level. It does get difficult at postcode level as many postcodes cover several suburbs. Apples and oranges.
I'm not dismissing the data, I'm suggesting caution reading it. It's not perfect. For example in a small suburb with mostly 3 bed homes, if a large strata development completes then there will be a surge in units or villas for rent which compete with 3 bed homes but are not quite the same. That may or may not have a big effect on rents for 3 bed homes but it will affect the average or median rents, and the effect may or may not be short live.
On top of that, most new rents are extensions of existing rent contracts which are never advertised, so we don't know what they are, and nor are they included in the index. By contrast every single house sale is in the house price index even if it's only included in the revision.
If you look at the rents for a town like Moranbah you will see that it's completely unambiguous, they have fallen heavily, but fluctuations in a Sydney suburb could be just seasonal until we can see clear trends in that and nearby suburbs. http://www.sqmresearch.com.au/weekly-rents.php?postcode=4744&t=1
OK,trawling through a database doesn't tell me anything about the aggregate changes in rent across 6 capital cities. It's irrelevant in terms of what the bar graph shows. Similarly, changes at the street or individual property are irrelevant at the aggregate level as well. Analytics 101.
The data is not perfect; hence a good argument for looking at trends at an aggregated level. Individual rent changes for different houses in different suburbs is irrelevant.
The bar graph has an interesting trend that gives a pretty strong insight that the ability for landlords to increase rents has become increasingly constrained across the key capital cities.
No need to challenge that or pretend that the data is less than representative of reality.
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