The funny thing here is that one you look under the surface of all this schoolboy gloating, the counter-narrative that clueless brainfarts like "the kouk" hold up as the underlying reason why doomer predictions keep failing is that everything is simply 'cyclical', with monetaey policy just there to smooth things out by giving the economy a helpful nudge in the right direction. Clearly anyone with half a brain who has been paying attention to economic developments in the last decade would simply laugh this nonsense out of town.
Doomer predictions failed because the Doomers (Keen, Grantham, Dent etc) were incompetent.
This cycle (from around 2008) has been dead easy to call, so long as you knew what to look for. However many bears have been too lazy to do their own work, relying on the economic wisdom of so called gurus. By the time we reach the end of the cycle the Gurus will be ex-credibility and allegiances will be lost. That is the beginning of capitulation, when most of the Bears give up and buy just before the collapse. The Gurus, who had been wrong for 10-15 years, will then say “I predicted it” and sell a bunch of books to the next breed of gullible Bears.
Although it was designed as a bit of a P!ss take, Shadow’s “holy chart” will probably turn out to be quite accurate.
This cycle (from around 2008) has been dead easy to call, so long as you knew what to look for.
Absolute bullshit.
"It were not best that we should all think alike; it is difference of opinion that makes horse races." - Mark Twain on why he avoids discussing house prices over at MacroBusiness. "Buy land, they're not making any more of it." - Georgist Land Tax proponent Mark Twain laughing in his grave at humourless idiots like skamy that continually use this quip to justify housing bubbles.
You got it in one. As real, value adding industries have been destroyed, the government is forcing people to put their money into the casino with the hope of making a return.
yep
oh and tax them if they win,
and charge fees whether they make a profit or not.
At the height of the boom four years ago, houses in Port Hedland and Karratha were renting for up to $3000 a week, with couples often paying $1000 for a bedroom. Garden sheds went for $500 a week, says Port Hedland’s mayor, Kelly Howlett. Now the average house rents for about $400 a week, and hundreds are empty. Houses that once sold for a million dollars go for less than $300,000, if buyers can be found at all. Western Australia’s government didn’t begin constructing new housing estates to ease the housing crisis until 2012, by which time it was too late. Osprey Village, a precinct of 293 tightly packed bungalows and cabins on the edge of South Hedland, is barely 40% occupied.
Win win, but only for the government.
Maybe we can send the recovering property investors here.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q6Oeds8kHtkIn a region that spearheaded Australia’s rise towards the top ten of the world’s economies, it’s time for reappraisal. The picture here could be a sobering premonition for the rest of the country, if a global recession is gathering. The Pilbara’s bust may be as exaggerated as its boom, but even a muted version of its 70–80% housing price slump would spell calamity. Like the Pilbara now, we might all be asking about what has been built from the boom.
"The truth is that there are no good men, or bad men. It is the deeds that have goodness or badness in them. There are good deeds, and bad deeds. Men are just men."
You got it in one. As real, value adding industries have been destroyed, the government is forcing people to put their money into the casino with the hope of making a return.
Well, to put it in RBA speak Goss:
"Mr Stevens flagged a world in which official interest rates and returns on "risk-free assets", such as government bonds, were set to remain low for a long time. That means the cost of buying a future income stream - whether through bonds, shares, real estate or other investments - has gone up, a lot. "Those seeking to make that purchase now – that is, those on the brink of leaving the workforce – are in a much worse position than those who made it a decade ago," observed Mr Stevens. "They have to accept a lot more risk to generate the expected flow of future income they want.""
Tho with them (ie the RBA) not appearing to be overly concerned about it as such - Providing of course, that the RBA deems their paying more to buy "a future income stream" is not likely to implode the nation's banks (through them taking on too much debt to do so) - As in It's a big hard world; Suck it up! - Leastways that's my take on it.
PS: So ya can cease 'n desist ya effin' whingin' about it Musty ...
Khaderbhai
23 Oct 2016, 06:25 PM
Wherever The Mighty Lord Shadow's Holy Chart leads, the market follows.
Wasn't it set ta go down some time about now? - Tho if I do recall correct, tha X-axis just mightn't a had specific years marked on it as such ...
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