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6 Weeks from Housing Collapse
Topic Started: 12 Sep 2016, 03:58 PM (13,153 Views)
b_b
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Gossamer
22 Oct 2016, 03:25 PM
These ridiculous types of predictions are done deliberately to discredit anybody who says anything contrary to the norm. It is like the boy who cried wolf so often, that when the wolf finally did appear, nobody listened to him.
I agree 100%. But to be fair, this was happening years ago.

Steve Keen, Harry Dent, Jeremy Grantham, “Mish”, the IMF, S&P etc all cried wolf 6-8 year ago. I think Shadow had a chart of it. Now if we are experiencing the start of a bubble, who will listen? The discrediting of “experts” is a necessary ingredient for a bubble IMO (although not the only ingredient). I said as much back on Steve Keen’s Debt deflation blog back in 2009 and on this forum in 2011-12.
Edited by b_b, 22 Oct 2016, 04:01 PM.
(S – I) + (T - G) + (M - X) = 0
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Terry
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b_b
22 Oct 2016, 04:00 PM
I agree 100%. But to be fair, this was happening years ago.

Steve Keen, Harry Dent, Jeremy Grantham, “Mish”, the IMF, S&P etc all cried wolf 6-8 year ago. I think Shadow had a chart of it. Now if we are experiencing the start of a bubble, who will listen? The discrediting of “experts” is a necessary ingredient for a bubble IMO (although not the only ingredient). I said as much back on Steve Keen’s Debt deflation blog back in 2009 and on this forum in 2011-12.
Actually, the existence of anti-heroes is important for the the establishment to influence the attitudes and behavior of the suburbanites. The mauling of Robert Shiller during the 2000s by the media is a perfect example of that.
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John Frum
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Terry
22 Oct 2016, 04:28 PM
Actually, the existence of anti-heroes is important for the the establishment to influence the attitudes and behavior of the suburbanites. The mauling of Robert Shiller during the 2000s by the media is a perfect example of that.
The funny thing here is that one you look under the surface of all this schoolboy gloating, the counter-narrative that clueless brainfarts like "the kouk" hold up as the underlying reason why doomer predictions keep failing is that everything is simply 'cyclical', with monetaey policy just there to smooth things out by giving the economy a helpful nudge in the right direction. Clearly anyone with half a brain who has been paying attention to economic developments in the last decade would simply laugh this nonsense out of town.

In fact the conventional wisdom now is that since the dotcom/enron/911 implosion there's been little more to western economic growth but cheap debt driven house price rises, and (particularly for emerging markets and australia) the demand/supply benefits from a county of 1.2 billion people loading up on debt to perpetuate an outdated, loss-making industrial growth model. Ironically this is the base-case that many of the tin-hat-goldbug-house-price-crash doomers have been using for years to formulate their arguments.
Edited by John Frum, 23 Oct 2016, 09:37 AM.
"It were not best that we should all think alike; it is difference of opinion that makes horse races." - Mark Twain on why he avoids discussing house prices over at MacroBusiness.
"Buy land, they're not making any more of it." - Georgist Land Tax proponent Mark Twain laughing in his grave at humourless idiots like skamy that continually use this quip to justify housing bubbles.
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Ex BP Golly
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Posted Image
http://www.afr.com/real-estate/these-charts-suggest-the-housing-bubble-is-out-of-control-20160223-gn20y0
Edited by Ex BP Golly, 23 Oct 2016, 10:23 AM.
WHAT WOULD EDDIE DO? MAAAATE!
Share a cot with Milton?
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Foxy
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Zero is coming...

Ex BP Golly
23 Oct 2016, 10:21 AM
Foxbat has been telling them this for a while, but.

It is not just houses, look into other businesses, the "real" return has been trending to zero or negative.

It is just the people in the businesses don't pick it up for a year or two and by then it is too late.

They dig in and slowly bleed out.

Peter

Just look at interest rates. lowest in history.

So all the people that had money in the bank and could live off the interest have been vaporized, and now been forced into risky investments that they have no idea how to value.

Like investing into houses in Port Hedland and Karratha.

This sums it up good.



https://www.themonthly.com.au/issue/2016/august/1469973600/hamish-mcdonald/bust-pilbara

http://www.afr.com/content/dam/images/g/n/2/1/u/8/image.imgtype.afrArticleInline.620x0.png/1456285515560.png
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Gossamer
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foxbat
23 Oct 2016, 10:47 AM
Foxbat has been telling them this for a while, but.

It is not just houses, look into other businesses, the "real" return has been trending to zero or negative.

It is just the people in the businesses don't pick it up for a year or two and by then it is too late.

They dig in and slowly bleed out.

Peter

Just look at interest rates. lowest in history.

So all the people that had money in the bank and could live off the interest have been vaporized, and now been forced into risky investments that they have no idea how to value.

Like investing into houses in Port Hedland and Karratha.

This sums it up good.



https://www.themonthly.com.au/issue/2016/august/1469973600/hamish-mcdonald/bust-pilbara
You got it in one. As real, value adding industries have been destroyed, the government is forcing people to put their money into the casino with the hope of making a return.
Common sense is a curse - those who have it need to suffer dealing with those who don't have it.

APF idiot list
Nelson
Black Panther
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DragonGM
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Ex BP Golly
23 Oct 2016, 10:21 AM
This chart speaks volumes. Cumulatively, those red bars mean that housing as an investment is only artificially sustained by tax policy (negative gearing).

Housing fundamentals are so far out of whack that government welfare policy for investors is required just to keep the ponzi scheme afloat.
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Jon Snow
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foxbat
23 Oct 2016, 10:47 AM
Just look at interest rates. lowest in history.

So all the people that had money in the bank and could live off the interest have been vaporized, and now been forced into risky investments that they have no idea how to value.

Like investing into houses in Port Hedland and Karratha.

This sums it up good.

All investment involves risk. If it did not, you would have communism where the government decides what will be made, how much of it will be made and how much it will cost.

People are naturally risk averse. Risk seeking behaviour is counter-evolutionary. But more than aversion to risk, people have an aversion to thinking and an aversion to effort. This is also evolutionary. Trying to get the most out of the least energy expended.

That a few people in a million demonstrate counter-evolutionary, risk seeking behaviour is what has led to our species' global domination and control. But it hasn't been without it's drawbacks. Those who create nothing still expect to be rewarded by those who create everything, for being 'human'. This tribal, collectivist thinking leads to all sorts of social ills. Civil unrest, political crisis and war. And also, to asset bubbles, as socialist governments attempt to reward the many for doing nothing with the wealth created by the few.

There is probably little that can be done about this situation, other than to position yourself accordingly and let it play out. How it plays out is as predictable as it is inevitable.

DragonGM
23 Oct 2016, 12:23 PM
This chart speaks volumes. Cumulatively, those red bars mean that housing as an investment is only artificially sustained by tax policy (negative gearing).

Housing fundamentals are so far out of whack that government welfare policy for investors is required just to keep the ponzi scheme afloat.
Doesn't your business prosper on this collective madness?
Edited by Jon Snow, 23 Oct 2016, 01:24 PM.
Speak when you are angry and you will make the best speech you will ever regret.
Ambrose Bierce
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Sydneyite
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Jon Snow
23 Oct 2016, 01:23 PM
Doesn't your business prosper on this collective madness?
Wrong "Dragon" - you are thinking of BlackDragon I suspect.
For Aussie property bears, "denial", is not just a long river in North Africa.....
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Jon Snow
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Sydneyite
23 Oct 2016, 01:39 PM
Wrong "Dragon" - you are thinking of BlackDragon I suspect.
Ah ... my error. Apologies.
Speak when you are angry and you will make the best speech you will ever regret.
Ambrose Bierce
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