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Perth Housing stock continues to fall
Topic Started: 12 Aug 2016, 02:42 PM (50,722 Views)
newjez
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Matthew
25 Aug 2016, 04:24 PM
I own property, why wouldn't I follow it?

I own shares and follow the performance of all my investments incredibly closely.

I don't own the Perth Wildcats, but I follow them intently.

I don't own Hawthorn FC, but I have followed them with a fair degree of infatuation for over 40 years.

I didn't own Black Caviar but I followed her career intently, and follow he stud career as well.

You don't live in Australia, own any Australian Property and have said before that you are unlikely to in the future yet you are omnipresent here.

In fact you are this forums all time third highest poster excluding Alex.

Are you a hypocrite or a moron?
Did you create a blog on those things and start a lifelong feud with someone who disagrees with you?

I'm here mainly as it gives me a different investment perspective. At the moment I'm accumulating resource stocks, as I think they have hit bottom.

I'm not that interested in Perth housing ATM.
Whenever you have an argument with someone, there comes a moment where you must ask yourself, whatever your political persuasion, 'am I the Nazi?'
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Matthew
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newjez
26 Aug 2016, 07:35 AM
Did you create a blog on those things and start a lifelong feud with someone who disagrees with you?

I'm here mainly as it gives me a different investment perspective. At the moment I'm accumulating resource stocks, as I think they have hit bottom.

I'm not that interested in Perth housing ATM.
The forum is called AUSTRALIAN PROPERTY FORUM. You do not live in Australia, you own no Australian property and you have said you have no intention of owning any in the future. Yet you are the Forums single largest active poster and third highest overall.

Your footer to every post is a limp wristed attack on two people for no other reason than their opinions differ to your own.

Most of your posts are misogynistic fits of impotent rage against Skamy and Blondie, again for no other reason than their position differs from your own.

Yet you question why I care about Australian property price movements when I both live in Australia and hold significant amounts of my wealth tied up in Property. :re:

Again are you a hypocrite or a moron?
My only hope for my three boys is that they turn out nothing at all like Chris.
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Jimbo
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Matthew
25 Aug 2016, 09:34 PM
Now we are underbuilding again.
Really?

Posted Image
Matthew, 30 Jan 2016, 09:21 AM Your simplistic view is so flawed it is not worth debating. The current oversupply will be swallowed in 12 months. By the time dumb shits like you realise this prices will already be :?: rising.
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newjez
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Matthew
26 Aug 2016, 01:42 PM
The forum is called AUSTRALIAN PROPERTY FORUM. You do not live in Australia, you own no Australian property and you have said you have no intention of owning any in the future. Yet you are the Forums single largest active poster and third highest overall.

Your footer to every post is a limp wristed attack on two people for no other reason than their opinions differ to your own.

Most of your posts are misogynistic fits of impotent rage against Skamy and Blondie, again for no other reason than their position differs from your own.

Yet you question why I care about Australian property price movements when I both live in Australia and hold significant amounts of my wealth tied up in Property. :re:

Again are you a hypocrite or a moron?
You're called Matthew, although you're probably not.

Don't confuse not being sexist with misogyny.

Lots of people disagree with me. Most probably do. The people you mention I don't like.

Stop being facetious with your two option survey.
Whenever you have an argument with someone, there comes a moment where you must ask yourself, whatever your political persuasion, 'am I the Nazi?'
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Matthew
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newjez
26 Aug 2016, 03:15 PM
You're called Matthew, although you're probably not.

Don't confuse not being sexist with misogyny.

Lots of people disagree with me. Most probably do. The people you mention I don't like.

Stop being facetious with your two option survey.
So to sum up it is ok for you not to like people, but not others to not like other people and you can express that however you like but will criticise others for doing the same. And it is ok for you to take an intense interest in an asset class in a country that you have no intention to own in but others should not do the same even if they both live in the country and own the asset class?

Given you cant see you are being a hypocrite I think it is clear you are a hypocritical moron.
Jimbo
26 Aug 2016, 02:35 PM
Really?

Posted Image
Pretty chart. Did you go out of your way to be misleading or is it that you simply are incapable if deciphering the difference between data and information?
Edited by Matthew, 26 Aug 2016, 04:41 PM.
My only hope for my three boys is that they turn out nothing at all like Chris.
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Jimbo
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Matthew
26 Aug 2016, 04:40 PM
Pretty chart. Did you go out of your way to be misleading or is it that you simply are incapable if deciphering the difference between data and information?
The chart simply shows residential construction activity versus population growth.

You can clearly see the period of undersupply as population grew faster than we were building. That was around 3 to 4 years ago.

Then we started building shitloads just as population growth started to decline.

We are currently building around 25% less than at the peak, but population growth has fallen by much much more than that.

So we are not in undersupply at the moment Matey. Not by a long shot.

Care to share your numbers?


Matthew
26 Aug 2016, 04:40 PM
Did you go out of your way to be misleading...
You mean like claiming that one REIWA recorded land sale equals one new unit of housing?
Edited by Jimbo, 26 Aug 2016, 04:58 PM.
Matthew, 30 Jan 2016, 09:21 AM Your simplistic view is so flawed it is not worth debating. The current oversupply will be swallowed in 12 months. By the time dumb shits like you realise this prices will already be :?: rising.
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Matthew
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Jimbo
26 Aug 2016, 04:53 PM
The chart simply shows residential construction activity versus population growth.

You can clearly see the period of undersupply as population grew faster than we were building. That was around 3 to 4 years ago.

Then we started building shitloads just as population growth started to decline.

We are currently building around 25% less than at the peak, but population growth has fallen by much much more than that.



You mean like claiming that one REIWA recorded land sale equals one new unit of housing?
OK, so you don't understand. Got it.

Quote:
 
So we are not in undersupply at the moment Matey. Not by a long shot.
I agree. I expect a balanced market is 8 - 9 months away. I have said this many times.

Quote:
 
You mean like claiming that one REIWA recorded land sale equals one new unit of housing?
No, 1 REIWA land sale = 1.09 units of housing. Go through the 2,793 blocks of land for sale on REIWA now and tell me how many dwellings you think will be constructed on them.

It is not my calculation, it is the calculation of a mate who works for one of the largest builders in WA. I will take his word over your bullshit opinion any day of any week. You have a significant credibility gap Dimbo.


This block in Thornlie Dim. 288m2. One house or more than one? http://reiwa.com.au/21b-burnley-street-thornlie-3804066/?source=ts&sourceid=5382

Or these three in Mt Lawley. 194, 194 and 171m2 respectively. One house each or more than one do you reckon? http://reiwa.com.au/61-63-raglan-road-mount-lawley-3812429/?source=ts&sourceid=5372

Or this 260m2 block also in Mt Lawley. One house or more than one? http://reiwa.com.au/100-second-avenue-mount-lawley-3792796/?source=ts&sourceid=5414

Three blocks in Lesmurdie. All single dwelling http://reiwa.com.au/31-sanderson-road-lesmurdie-3504772/?source=ts&sourceid=5673

A rear shithole in Willagee. 328m2. One dwelling, or more than one do you reckon Dim? http://reiwa.com.au/willagee-3824211/

414m2 in Mindarie Dim. 1 dwelling, or more than one? http://reiwa.com.au/80-alexandria-view-mindarie-3823408/

506m2 10m wide in Freo. 1 Dim? You f***ing betcha it will have one. http://reiwa.com.au/38-holdsworth-street-fremantle-3817396/

a 446m2 Strata block in Mullaloo. One house Dim? Or more than one? http://reiwa.com.au/21a-karalundie-way-mullaloo-3765998/

500m2 in Edgewater Dim. One house Dim? or more than one? http://reiwa.com.au/46a-lakeview-drive-edgewater-3753657/

and finally 468m2 in Doubleview. One house Dim? or 16? One? Yep. http://reiwa.com.au/86a-paramatta-road-doubleview-3770621/

The first 14 blocks of land for sale on the REIWA website are suitable to build precisely 14 houses.

You are an idiot.
Edited by Matthew, 26 Aug 2016, 05:31 PM.
My only hope for my three boys is that they turn out nothing at all like Chris.
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Jimbo
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Matthew
26 Aug 2016, 05:17 PM
I agree. I expect a balanced market is 8 - 9 months away. I have said this many times.
But you claim we are underbuilding right now?

You don't think that the 20,000 units of housing currently under construction can house a population growth rate of 20,000pa?

Quote:
 
No, 1 REIWA land sale = 1.09 units of housing. Go through the 2,793 blocks of land for sale on REIWA now and tell me how many dwellings you think will be constructed on them. It is not my calculation, it is the calculation of a mate who works for one of the largest builders in WA. I will take his word over your bullshit opinion any day of any week. You have a significant credibility gap Dimbo.
Because all new units of housing are built on a REIWA recorded land sale block? No subdivisions, no apartments. Simply REIWA reported land sales x 1.09.

Consider this Matey. The biggest year for REIWA reported land sales was 2013.

15,971 (REIWA reported) blocks were sold in 2013.

Multiply that by 1.09 (your numbers) and you get 17,408 new housing units.

Now find me any year since 2013 where we have added fewer than 20,000 new units.



Edited by Jimbo, 26 Aug 2016, 05:50 PM.
Matthew, 30 Jan 2016, 09:21 AM Your simplistic view is so flawed it is not worth debating. The current oversupply will be swallowed in 12 months. By the time dumb shits like you realise this prices will already be :?: rising.
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Matthew
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Jimbo
26 Aug 2016, 05:49 PM
But you claim we are underbuilding right now?

You don't think that the 20,000 units of housing currently under construction can house a population growth rate of 20,000pa?





I don't claim we are. I state we are. Because we are.

How many houses under construction don't add to housing stock Dim? Something you conveniently ignore.

You seriously think people with kids and a dog will pile into units just because they are built?

You are not coming across as any smarter here Dim.

Quote:
 
Because all new units of housing are built on a REIWA recorded land sale block? No subdivisions, no apartments. Simply REIWA reported land sales x 1.09.
I have never said all construction starts with a vacant land sale. Not once. Because it is not true, and you would be stupid to say it. Almost as stupid as you look claiming I said it, which I never did.

Quote:
 
Consider this Matey. The biggest year for REIWA reported land sales was 2013. 15,971 (REIWA reported) blocks were sold in 2013.
Multiply that by 1.09 (your numbers) and you get 17,408 new housing units.

Now find me any year since 2013 where we have added fewer than 20,000 new units.
You will be unable to find that Dim. Because when we knock down a house and build 2 that is not recorded as a land sale. Equally where we knock down 1 house and build 1 house, that is also not recorded as a land sale.

Quote:
 
Consider this Matey. The biggest year for REIWA reported land sales was 2013.

15,971 (REIWA reported) blocks were sold in 2013.
Consider this Dim - in the past 60 weeks REIWA have reported sales of 3,526 blocks of land. Weekly land sales are down 80%. And they are not getting stronger. We cant 3D Print houses, they will still take a year to build, give or take.

As I said yesterday you are blinded by the outcome you want to see to be "Vindicated" you cannot understand what is actually happening.



Edited by Matthew, 26 Aug 2016, 06:04 PM.
My only hope for my three boys is that they turn out nothing at all like Chris.
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Jimbo
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Matthew
26 Aug 2016, 06:01 PM
How many houses under construction don't add to housing stock Dim? Something you conveniently ignore.
Never implied anything of the sort.

Quote:
 
You seriously think people with kids and a dog will pile into units just because they are built?
No, but a young couple with no kids currently renting a 3x2 in the burbs could well be tempted by the low rental costs, easy commute and city lifestyle. It's happening now Matey. http://airewestperth.com.au/2016/02/10/perth-apartment-living/

A 2x1 apartment gets built in East Perth and a 3x1 in Butler is added to the vacant supply.

Quote:
 
I have never said all construction starts with a vacant land sale. Not once. Because it is not true, and you would be stupid to say it. Almost as stupid as you look claiming I said it, which I never did.
Really Matey.

You never said this?

"Just 71 blocks of land. Enough future housing for 177 people. But on average 644 have arrived."

http://australianpropertyforum.com/single/?p=8619423&t=10432660

You then went on to say this

"Once construction completion and with it supply peaks (may have already given listings are slightly edging down) the oversupply will erode at a rate of around 250 - 300 dwellings per week.


Edited by Jimbo, 26 Aug 2016, 09:58 PM.
Matthew, 30 Jan 2016, 09:21 AM Your simplistic view is so flawed it is not worth debating. The current oversupply will be swallowed in 12 months. By the time dumb shits like you realise this prices will already be :?: rising.
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