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Perth Housing stock continues to fall
Topic Started: 12 Aug 2016, 02:42 PM (50,726 Views)
Deleted User
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i find this post interesting but i think people focus to much on property investment alone ive watched the market here in wa since i arrived in 2009 and im looking to buy,we are still renting because i could see things going south
to me its pretty simple im work in flooring and its gone really quiet lucky i keep busy.
i see too many investment properties only so many cam be rented at any one time
people have been talked into investment properties with negative gearing (which only works in rising markets)
and didnt factor in house go done and up not just straight up and is a long term investment and aren't prepared for a downturn
i know a few that have tried to sell their investment properties but the offers where too low for them to accept (they would loose too much money)
too many investment properties in the same area (poor research)
new starts falling of a cliff means the construction trade loosing jobs (many not shown on the jobless figures because self employed just dont have enough work they aren't unemployed and most of the construction trades are self employed)
the mining in a long downturn?
population falling
ive seen house prices fall from $550000 to $450000 in some areas and i mean Perth not the mining towns
the retail sector is struggling
all this with record low interest rates
and ive never seen so much land being developed and stood empty
not looking good where is the money going to come from for an upturn
then just a thought if the well documented oversupply of units in Melbourne and Sydney cause big losses for the big banks they will have to restrict their lending because they are leverage far too high on home loans and there is some shady practices going off there and then put in the mix how dangerously high personal debt is and things dont look so rosie
remember it only takes a small percentage to mess it all up
these are only my thoughts i look forward to an intelligent discussion
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herbie
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We's got a 'member' postin' named "brammy" - Yet I can't find no registered member called "brammy"?

Hmmm - Might tha name "brammy" be a piss take on tha name called "skamy"?

Hmmm agin - Might brammy actually have anything interesting/informative/amusing ta say?

Hmmm agin x 2 plus - Might "brammy" actually hit tha "Post Reply" button?

Hmmm agin x 3 plus - Or might ole herbie have just f***ed up on his interpretin' tha vagaries of computin'? Or might sumthin' else explain it all?

Hmmm - - - Anyways, I luvs a good piss take. 'N that's whys I's here ... LOL LOL LOL
brammy
17 Aug 2016, 08:19 PM
i find this post interesting but i think people focus to much on property investment alone ive watched the market here in wa since i arrived in 2009 and im looking to buy,we are still renting because i could see things going south
to me its pretty simple im work in flooring and its gone really quiet lucky i keep busy.
i see too many investment properties only so many cam be rented at any one time
people have been talked into investment properties with negative gearing (which only works in rising markets)
and didnt factor in house go done and up not just straight up and is a long term investment and aren't prepared for a downturn
i know a few that have tried to sell their investment properties but the offers where too low for them to accept (they would loose too much money)
too many investment properties in the same area (poor research)
new starts falling of a cliff means the construction trade loosing jobs (many not shown on the jobless figures because self employed just dont have enough work they aren't unemployed and most of the construction trades are self employed)
the mining in a long downturn?
population falling
ive seen house prices fall from $550000 to $450000 in some areas and i mean Perth not the mining towns
the retail sector is struggling
all this with record low interest rates
and ive never seen so much land being developed and stood empty
not looking good where is the money going to come from for an upturn
then just a thought if the well documented oversupply of units in Melbourne and Sydney cause big losses for the big banks they will have to restrict their lending because they are leverage far too high on home loans and there is some shady practices going off there and then put in the mix how dangerously high personal debt is and things dont look so rosie
remember it only takes a small percentage to mess it all up
these are only my thoughts i look forward to an intelligent discussion
Ya dun good sis 'n/or bro - For mine anyway - 'N I for one certainly looks forward ta seein' more posts from ya here (If ya feels inclined ta) ...
Edited by herbie, 18 Aug 2016, 02:49 AM.
A Professional Demographer to an amateur demographer: "negative natural increase will never outweigh the positive net migration"
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Jimbo
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Mike
17 Aug 2016, 05:51 PM
Reiwa no longer supports your agenda so you no longer use it, that's fine. Just don't roll out the Reiwa links or screenshots when it does.
REIWA has never supported my "agenda", because I don't have an agenda. I am not spruiking a direction in property prices one way or the other.

I don't stand to gain if Perth property goes up or down. I have already taken my gains by selling at the market peak.

I am not a leveraged speculator trying to convince others to take on even more leverage to buy my ass.

I am simply pointing out the reality of the Perth market and I throw REIWA numbers in your face when you come out with blatant bullshit.

Every now and again, you start a new bullshit thread about how something or other is going to kick off a new boom. Today is one of those days Mikey.

Here's a little snapshot of the bullshit threads you started in a few months in 2014.

Posted Image

More comedy gold from Mike who reckons he has been predicting a Perth downturn for the last two years.

Posted Image

Oh, and look at what you said in November 2013
Quote:
 
You are sounding rather desperate lately, to much good economic news which you know will drive prices higher over the next 2 years.


Your predictive skills are (how can I say put this in a nice way?).

Shit.





Edited by Jimbo, 18 Aug 2016, 07:58 AM.
Matthew, 30 Jan 2016, 09:21 AM Your simplistic view is so flawed it is not worth debating. The current oversupply will be swallowed in 12 months. By the time dumb shits like you realise this prices will already be :?: rising.
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Matthew
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Jimbo
18 Aug 2016, 07:28 AM
I don't have an agenda.
Funniest thing I have read in years.

Quote:
 
I am not spruiking a direction in property prices one way or the other.
Wait - that is the funniest thing I have read in years.

Back to the topic REIWA market snapshot shows more falls in listings as Mike pointed out in the OP.

Listings for sale (excluding land) down 4 more and now 20.02% lower than the peak.

Listings for rent down 153. More significantly Listings for rent now falling 3 consecutive weeks. They have only fallen 12 times in the past year, but three weeks on the trot.

1,061 less dwellings on the market in all forms than the peak. Or looking at it another way 20% of the oversupply eroded.

Land sales yet to get to 3,500 in 59 weeks. Enough land sold to accommodate 8,700 people at current household formation.

What is that word people use when they can see where the market is moving based on recent data? Starts with T?

The worst of the falls are behind the Perth market. If you want to buy a house and are not looking now you will miss the bottom. Simple as that.
My only hope for my three boys is that they turn out nothing at all like Chris.
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zaph
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Two "Funniest thing I have read in years." in two minutes.


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Mike
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Jimbo
18 Aug 2016, 07:28 AM
REIWA has never supported my "agenda", because I don't have an agenda.


Hey Jimbo, guess what stock of both properties for sale continues to fall. Down again this week and below levels of 12 months ago.

Posted Imageupload pic

And to cap it off, rental stock has also fallen over the last 4 weeks.

Posted Imageadult photo sharing
Jimbo
18 Aug 2016, 07:28 AM





Quote:
 
Here's a little snapshot of the bullshit threads you started in a few months in 2014.

Posted Image



No most were started in 2013, most have links to data sources, so the comments are accurate for the data and that time period. Why are you concerned with threads from 3 and half years ago when the market in Perth grew over 15%.

This time include the dates.

Posted Imageimage hosting 10mb limit

Quote:
 
More comedy gold from Mike who reckons he has been predicting a Perth downturn for the last two years.

Posted Image


Yes, you have listed threads most started over 3 years ago when the Perth market was growing. Can you count, you seem to have missed a year or two in there. We are in 2016 heading for 2017.

Jimbo if I had the time I would go bring up posts I made in 2012 with Newjez where I predicated the market growth over 2013-14 and that the market would slow again in 2016/17 regaining growth again in 2018. From memory I think Newjez had the market in perpetual decline until 2020, I think. You would not know that have as you have not been around long enough to witness those debates.
Edited by Mike, 18 Aug 2016, 02:23 PM.
http://mike-globaleconomy.blogspot.com.au/
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Terry
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Mike
18 Aug 2016, 02:07 PM





Yes, you have listed threads most started over 3 years ago when the Perth market was growing. Can you count, you seem to have missed a year or two in there. We are in 2016 heading for 2017.

Jimbo if I had the time I would go bring up posts I made in 2012 with Newjez where I predicated the market growth over 2013-14 and that the market would slow again in 2016/17 regaining growth again in 2018. From memory I think Newjez had the market in perpetual decline until 2020, I think. You would not know that have as you have not been around long enough to witness those debates.
Hang in there Mikey. Plenty of cult leaders make predictions, but God works in mysterious ways.
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newjez
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Mike
18 Aug 2016, 02:07 PM
Hey Jimbo, guess what stock of both properties for sale continues to fall. Down again this week and below levels of 12 months ago.

Posted Imageupload pic

And to cap it off, rental stock has also fallen over the last 4 weeks.

Posted Imageadult photo sharing




No most were started in 2013, most have links to data sources, so the comments are accurate for the data and that time period. Why are you concerned with threads from 3 and half years ago when the market in Perth grew over 15%.

This time include the dates.

Posted Imageimage hosting 10mb limit




Yes, you have listed threads most started over 3 years ago when the Perth market was growing. Can you count, you seem to have missed a year or two in there. We are in 2016 heading for 2017.

Jimbo if I had the time I would go bring up posts I made in 2012 with Newjez where I predicated the market growth over 2013-14 and that the market would slow again in 2016/17 regaining growth again in 2018. From memory I think Newjez had the market in perpetual decline until 2020, I think. You would not know that have as you have not been around long enough to witness those debates.
That just means things are about as shit as they were last year. Doesn't mean they will get better or worse.
zaph
18 Aug 2016, 12:29 PM
Two "Funniest thing I have read in years." in two minutes.


He doesn't get out much.
Edited by newjez, 18 Aug 2016, 02:49 PM.
Whenever you have an argument with someone, there comes a moment where you must ask yourself, whatever your political persuasion, 'am I the Nazi?'
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Massive
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so wa unemployment at 30 year highs (edit.. oops )

there were a whole pile of people on this board who could see this coming and what it would mean for property in perth. a few of us from our location thousands of miles away..

mr sunday times news clippings mike was definitely not one of them
Edited by Massive, 18 Aug 2016, 08:21 PM.
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Mike
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Massive
18 Aug 2016, 08:20 PM
so wa unemployment at 30 year highs (edit.. oops )

there were a whole pile of people on this board who could see this coming and what it would mean for property in perth. a few of us from our location thousands of miles away..

mr sunday times news clippings mike was definitely not one of them
If you had read some of my posts over the past 2 years you would know I have sold a number of properties across Australia, I am bearish on property but that does not stop be buying at the right price. You would also know I am actively looking for land at the right price, last down turn is when I made a killing on buying prime land at bargain prices, looking to do the same again. But as us bears say, the time is not right yet.

I am bearish on property, even for Sydney and Melbourne. That wont stop me posting positive data though or trends I can see developing.
http://mike-globaleconomy.blogspot.com.au/
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