Looks like Warnbro prices are much lower than they were in 2007, in real terms. By 2014 they'd been declining in real terms for at least seven years.
Skamy
Warnbro had hardly moved since 2007 prices. You sold in the middle of a housing crash when common sense should be telling you that was the time to buy.
Certainly looks that way. Seems strange to sell after real prices had already been declining for close to a decade.
"The truth is that there are no good men, or bad men. It is the deeds that have goodness or badness in them. There are good deeds, and bad deeds. Men are just men."
Land transactions are also down because of the oversupply of established dwellings. Also makes perfect sense.
Land transactions are down because instead of 80,000 people coming here, around 30,000 people came last year.
Some numbers from the ABS. Population growth, WA.
2012 87,000 2013 56,000 2014 36,000 2015 30,980
It all ties in very nicely with the fall in land sales if you work on the assumption that people don't buy a block the second their plane lands (maybe six months to a year later).
You are wrong again Matey.
Khaderbhai
14 Sep 2016, 03:48 PM
Looks like Warnbro prices are much lower than they were in 2007, in real terms.
I don't disagree.
But Skammy is telling a gross untruth by stating false performance in nominal terms.
Rufus
14 Sep 2016, 03:48 PM
But the data source that you quoted has Warnbro peaking at $385,000 in Jan/Feb 2016 and now it's back to $374,250
The turnover of property is very low and the $185k is based on 188 sales for the year.
Warnbro has a very diverse price range from $300k entry level stuff 2kms inland to beachside mansions fetching over a million plus.
I sold one of the latter when they were in high demand and now they are struggling to give these places away.
Matthew, 30 Jan 2016, 09:21 AM Your simplistic view is so flawed it is not worth debating. The current oversupply will be swallowed in 12 months. By the time dumb shits like you realise this prices will already be rising.
Land transactions are down because instead of 80,000 people coming here, around 30,000 people came last year.
Some numbers from the ABS. Population growth, WA.
2012 87,000 2013 56,000 2014 36,000 2015 30,980
It all ties in very nicely with the fall in land sales if you work on the assumption that people don't buy a block the second their plane lands (maybe six months to a year later).
You are wrong again Matey.
Are you that stupid?
If you were correct in what you are saying Dimshit Land sales as a % of total transactions would be fairly constant over time with total transactions fluctuating with population growth movements. They are not though are they Dimshit?
They have gone from 30% of total transactions to 20%.
I think you actually have no idea what you are talking about. Time to give the game away Dimshit, you are embarrassing yourself.
My only hope for my three boys is that they turn out nothing at all like Chris.
If you were correct in what you are saying Dimshit Land sales as a % of total transactions would be fairly constant over time with total transactions fluctuating with population growth movements. They are not though are they Dimshit?
No Matey, because a larger proportion of established homes are bought by people already here. Trader uppers etc.
New people tend to go for house and land packages because they are incentivised by the government to do so.
So, when population grows more slowly, the number of house and land packages selling will be fewer.
The number of established property sales will not fall by as much, because the number of people already living here is still the same.
Therefore, the proportion of overall sales which are land will fall as population growth slows.
Think about it another way Matey. If population growth was zero, would we need to sell any land at all? Answer: Probably not.
If population growth was zero, would nobody already here move suburb or trade up? Answer: They would continue to trade up or move suburb.
The rate of population growth has a direct impact on the amount of new land required for housing.
It has little impact on the desire of those already living here to trade up or move from one suburb to another.
It's not as simple as 11,999 listings = boom, or all new property is a function of REIWA reported land sales x 1.09, but I thought it would have been simple enough for a high flying genius such as yourself to understand?
Quote:
They have gone from 30% of total transactions to 20%.
The proportion of new people added to the population each year has gone from 4% to 1%.
Matthew, 30 Jan 2016, 09:21 AM Your simplistic view is so flawed it is not worth debating. The current oversupply will be swallowed in 12 months. By the time dumb shits like you realise this prices will already be rising.
Think about it another way Matey. If population growth was zero, would we need to sell any land at all? Answer: Probably not.
Bull shit. Kids will continue to leave home requiring additional housing. Family units will continue to break down requiring additional hosing. Country residents will continue to seek opportunities in the city.
Quote:
The rate of population growth has a direct impact on the amount of new land required for housing.
Of course it does Dimshit. As does established stock on the market. Only a true Dimshit would buy a postage stamp sized hose and land package in the middle of west bumf***nowhere for $500k and rent for a year during construction for a tiny FHOG when they can buy an established dwelling today for a comparable price in a better, more central suburb and save a shitload of rent. Even if for some unknown f***ing reason you wanted to live in Alkimos you are still better off buying this house and moving in today http://reiwa.com.au/39-topsail-loop-alkimos-3763066/?source=ts&sourceid=5981 for $550k rather than buy this block of land http://reiwa.com.au/2-topsail-loop-alkimos-3811313/ and build a Dale Alcock house on it for the same price while renting this http://reiwa.com.au/28-leeway-loop-alkimos-3824700/ for $430 a week while you build.
Your logic is beyond retarded and shows you know f*** all about the topic you spam relentlessly let alone consumer behaviour.
Quote:
's not as simple as 11,999 listings = boom
No it is not Dimshit, nor have I ever claimed that it is.
Land transactions are down because instead of 80,000 people coming here, around 30,000 people came last year.
Some numbers from the ABS. Population growth, WA.
2012 87,000 2013 56,000 2014 36,000 2015 30,980
It all ties in very nicely with the fall in land sales if you work on the assumption that people don't buy a block the second their plane lands (maybe six months to a year later).
You are wrong again Matey.
I don't disagree.
But Skammy is telling a gross untruth by stating false performance in nominal terms. The turnover of property is very low and the $185k is based on 188 sales for the year.
Warnbro has a very diverse price range from $300k entry level stuff 2kms inland to beachside mansions fetching over a million plus.
I sold one of the latter when they were in high demand and now they are struggling to give these places away.
How many have left??
And those very high paying mining jobs have just gone...
Perth is running on thin air.
Good luck with that.
Interest rates at 0%.
Maybe.
Meanwhile gold and lithium shares are up $900,000 since x-mas.
So what's the relevance? If you had the weekly asking price changes in a database, I'm sure that the insight would be relatively banal.
You may be able to redeem yourself Terry - from all your silly costly doom and glooming in Sydney. Here is a chance to buy in a market with prices the same as they were a decade ago.
But no you will remain a coward like the majority and hide in fear from this market.
Definition of a doom and gloomer from 1993 The last camp is made up of the doom-and-gloomers. Their slogan is "it's the end of the world as we know it". Right now they are convinced that debt is the evil responsible for all our economic woes and must be eliminated at all cost. Many doom-and-gloomers believe that unprecedented debt levels mean that we are on the precipice of a worse crisis than the Great Depression. The doom-and-gloomers hang on the latest series of negative economic data.
Jimbo you are stuck in a panic because you have made a bad couple of calls - you called a crash in 2014 - the world has thrown some really big challenges at WA since then yet there has been no crash.
Why? because 2007 knocked the heat out of the market years before. There was no piles of stressed new buyers to get into bother and crash the market. You believed the urban myth of FIFO workers buying homes when they did no such thing. House sales and land sales were ridiculously low right throughout the mining investment boom due to the likes of Keen spouting nonsense about 40% crashes just around the corner.
How can you possibly believe that after 10 years of stagnant prices, and the low prices in Perth relative to the rest of the country, that there will be a price crash from here?
Don't be a fool with home ownership, you are long enough in the teeth to know what a huge price there is to be paid for staying out of the market too long.
Look at poor old Terry weeping every week and monstering statistics to try to prove that his Sydney crash is still just around the corner, when the truth is that he has been left well behind to the tune of 6 figures plus every year he waits.
Definition of a doom and gloomer from 1993 The last camp is made up of the doom-and-gloomers. Their slogan is "it's the end of the world as we know it". Right now they are convinced that debt is the evil responsible for all our economic woes and must be eliminated at all cost. Many doom-and-gloomers believe that unprecedented debt levels mean that we are on the precipice of a worse crisis than the Great Depression. The doom-and-gloomers hang on the latest series of negative economic data.
Australian Property Forum is an economics and finance forum dedicated to discussion of Australian and global real estate markets and macroeconomics, including house prices, housing affordability, and the likelihood of a property crash. Is there an Australian housing bubble? Will house prices crash, boom or stagnate? Is the Australian property market a pyramid scheme or Ponzi scheme? Can house prices really rise forever? These are the questions we address on Australian Property Forum, the premier real estate site for property bears, bulls, investors, and speculators. Members may also discuss matters related to finance, modern monetary theory (MMT), debt deflation, cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin Ethereum and Ripple, property investing, landlords, tenants, debt consolidation, reverse home equity loans, the housing shortage, negative gearing, capital gains tax, land tax and macro prudential regulation.
Forum Rules:
The main forum may be used to discuss property, politics, economics and finance, precious metals, crypto currency, debt management, generational divides, climate change, sustainability, alternative energy, environmental topics, human rights or social justice issues, and other topics on a case by case basis. Topics unsuitable for the main forum may be discussed in the lounge. You agree you won't use this forum to post material that is illegal, private, defamatory, pornographic, excessively abusive or profane, threatening, or invasive of another forum member's privacy. Don't post NSFW content. Racist or ethnic slurs and homophobic comments aren't tolerated. Accusing forum members of serious crimes is not permitted. Accusations, attacks, abuse or threats, litigious or otherwise, directed against the forum or forum administrators aren't tolerated and will result in immediate suspension of your account for a number of days depending on the severity of the attack. No spamming or advertising in the main forum. Spamming includes repeating the same message over and over again within a short period of time. Don't post ALL CAPS thread titles. The Advertising and Promotion Subforum may be used to promote your Australian property related business or service. Active members of the forum who contribute regularly to main forum discussions may also include a link to their product or service in their signature block. Members are limited to one actively posting account each. A secondary account may be used solely for the purpose of maintaining a blog as long as that account no longer posts in threads. Any member who believes another member has violated these rules may report the offending post using the report button.
Australian Property Forum complies with ASIC Regulatory Guide 162 regarding Internet Discussion Sites. Australian Property Forum is not a provider of financial advice. Australian Property Forum does not in any way endorse the views and opinions of its members, nor does it vouch for for the accuracy or authenticity of their posts. It is not permitted for any Australian Property Forum member to post in the role of a licensed financial advisor or to post as the representative of a financial advisor. It is not permitted for Australian Property Forum members to ask for or offer specific buy, sell or hold recommendations on particular stocks, as a response to a request of this nature may be considered the provision of financial advice.
Views expressed on this forum are not representative of the forum owners. The forum owners are not liable or responsible for comments posted. Information posted does not constitute financial or legal advice. The forum owners accept no liability for information posted, nor for consequences of actions taken on the basis of that information. By visiting or using this forum, members and guests agree to be bound by the Zetaboards Terms of Use.
This site may contain copyright material (i.e. attributed snippets from online news reports), the use of which has not always been specifically authorized by the copyright owner. Such content is posted to advance understanding of environmental, political, human rights, economic, democratic, scientific, and social justice issues. This constitutes 'fair use' of such copyright material as provided for in section 107 of US Copyright Law. In accordance with Title 17 U.S.C. Section 107, the material on this site is distributed for research and educational purposes only. If you wish to use this material for purposes that go beyond 'fair use', you must obtain permission from the copyright owner. Such material is credited to the true owner or licensee. We will remove from the forum any such material upon the request of the owners of the copyright of said material, as we claim no credit for such material.
Privacy Policy: Australian Property Forum uses third party advertising companies to serve ads when you visit our site. These third party advertising companies may collect and use information about your visits to Australian Property Forum as well as other web sites in order to provide advertisements about goods and services of interest to you. If you would like more information about this practice and to know your choices about not having this information used by these companies, click here: Google Advertising Privacy FAQ
Australian Property Forum is hosted by Zetaboards. Please refer also to the Zetaboards Privacy Policy