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Perth Housing stock continues to fall
Topic Started: 12 Aug 2016, 02:42 PM (50,691 Views)
Jimbo
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Mike
13 Sep 2016, 10:41 AM
That graph shows that when unemployment was falling and close to its lowest point is when property prices fell the most during 2010/11. Jimbo still seems to miss the main points of why the market fell, Jimbo has not stated the biggest factor, not even close.
Well Mikey, up until 2007 unemployment was very low and the GBP bought around $2.50. Poms were selling UK houses for boom prices. Perth prices did a moonshot.

Then we had this GFC thing, the AUD tanked then reversed to more than match the USD. There were resources layoffs as our goods became too expensive and unemployment spiked up.

Now, there is generally a lag between unemployment movements and property prices. Trying to suggest they are not related because they don't follow the exact same timeline is being dishonest Mikey. Unemployment fell back below 4% in late 2012 and prices started to rise again.

Now we have unemployment rising again, population growth slumping and prices falling.

All this with record low interest rates.

So tell me Mikey, what will change to make prices go up again?



Matthew, 30 Jan 2016, 09:21 AM Your simplistic view is so flawed it is not worth debating. The current oversupply will be swallowed in 12 months. By the time dumb shits like you realise this prices will already be :?: rising.
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newjez
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Jimbo
13 Sep 2016, 02:54 PM
Well Mikey, up until 2007 unemployment was very low and the GBP bought around $2.50. Poms were selling UK houses for boom prices. Perth prices did a moonshot.

Then we had this GFC thing, the AUD tanked then reversed to more than match the USD. There were resources layoffs as our goods became too expensive and unemployment spiked up.

Now, there is generally a lag between unemployment movements and property prices. Trying to suggest they are not related because they don't follow the exact same timeline is being dishonest Mikey. Unemployment fell back below 4% in late 2012 and prices started to rise again.

Now we have unemployment rising again, population growth slumping and prices falling.

All this with record low interest rates.

So tell me Mikey, what will change to make prices go up again?



That is the 64 dollar question. What has changed?
Whenever you have an argument with someone, there comes a moment where you must ask yourself, whatever your political persuasion, 'am I the Nazi?'
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Jimbo
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skamy
13 Sep 2016, 10:46 AM
Denial Jimbo denial - anyone here can check the REIWA site for the real stats.

Warnbro took a hit in 2007and you sold into the middle of a downturn in 2014 when the first buyers returned to the market for a short period.

Well perhaps you could post these facts rather than total bullshit Skammy.

Warnbro peaked in December 2014 @ $380k. The median in 2007 was $340k.

The current median is $374k.

I sold at the market peak. You are now telling me I sold into a slump? WTF? WT absolute F?

Why the bullshit Skammy? Why the lies?

Mike
13 Sep 2016, 10:41 AM
Or not as stupid as some one such as your self who finds the need to state the obvious constantly. 12-13,000 properties has been considered the balanced market point for Perth since prior to the last boom of 2004-06. This is the point most industry observers use and has proven accurate in the past.
Actually Mikey, that is not the whole equation that these "industry observers" (AKA REIWA) use.

It is 12,000 for sale and a 3% REIWA vacancy rate.

The current REIWA vacancy rate is 6.7%.

You keep forgetting to mention that one Mikey.

Wonder why?
Edited by Jimbo, 13 Sep 2016, 03:14 PM.
Matthew, 30 Jan 2016, 09:21 AM Your simplistic view is so flawed it is not worth debating. The current oversupply will be swallowed in 12 months. By the time dumb shits like you realise this prices will already be :?: rising.
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herbie
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So wot's your suggested times ta look at buyin' inta Perth Jimbo 'n Newjez?

On apartments 'n houses separately if ya reckon that's applicable?

'N mentioning wotever other factors ya reckon just might count most generally - But not includin' ya AUD/GBP ER guesses - Wif that generally bein' pretty irrelevant ta most of us Oz based Aussies ...

Read here recently Rufus' opinionation now is about as good as it gets; Wif it maybe lastin' for another year now ...

Cock on block time boys ... :)
Edited by herbie, 13 Sep 2016, 03:50 PM.
A Professional Demographer to an amateur demographer: "negative natural increase will never outweigh the positive net migration"
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newjez
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herbie
13 Sep 2016, 03:39 PM
So wot's your suggested times ta look at buyin' inta Perth Jimbo 'n Newjez?

On apartments 'n houses separately if ya reckon that's applicable?

'N mentioning wotever other factors ya reckon just might count most generally - But not includin' ya AUD/GBP ER guesses - Wif that generally bein' pretty irrelevant ta most of us Oz based Aussies ...

Read here recently Rufus' opinionation now is about as good as it gets; Wif it maybe lastin' for another year now ...

Cock on block time boys ... :)
I've said 2020, but in all honesty I'd like to see how the US and China weathers the next two fed rates rises, and I'd like some direction on brexit before making a call.

Two much risk and instability out there Herbie for the Perth market to do anything.
Edited by newjez, 13 Sep 2016, 04:19 PM.
Whenever you have an argument with someone, there comes a moment where you must ask yourself, whatever your political persuasion, 'am I the Nazi?'
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Matthew
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Jimbo
13 Sep 2016, 02:54 PM
Well Mikey, up until 2007 unemployment was very low and the GBP bought around $2.50. Poms were selling UK houses for boom prices. Perth prices did a moonshot.
Irrelevant to the periods in question, specifically why prices fell in 2010/11 and rose in 2012/13 in the middle of the same mining boom with the same high migration, despite unemployment rising as prices spiked and falling as prices dropped

Quote:
 
Then we had this GFC thing, the AUD tanked then reversed to more than match the USD. There were resources layoffs as our goods became too expensive and unemployment spiked up.
Bullshit as well as irrelevant to the question at hand.

Quote:
 
Now, there is generally a lag between unemployment movements and property prices. Trying to suggest they are not related because they don't follow the exact same timeline is being dishonest Mikey. Unemployment fell back below 4% in late 2012 and prices started to rise again.
You have read this so poorly it is like you have the book upside down


Jimbo
13 Sep 2016, 03:01 PM
Actually Mikey, that is not the whole equation that these "industry observers" (AKA REIWA) use.

It is 12,000 for sale and a 3% REIWA vacancy rate.

The current REIWA vacancy rate is 6.7%.

You keep forgetting to mention that one Mikey.

Wonder why?
I have told you before Dimshit you are best to look at the whole market not just the bit that gives you a semi.
herbie
13 Sep 2016, 03:39 PM
On apartments 'n houses separately if ya reckon that's applicable?

Apartments - never.

Houses - I would be looking now, if I saw the house I wanted to live in I would buy it. There will be no major falls from here.
Edited by Matthew, 13 Sep 2016, 04:33 PM.
My only hope for my three boys is that they turn out nothing at all like Chris.
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Jimbo
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Matthew
13 Sep 2016, 04:27 PM
You have read this so poorly it is like you have the book upside down
So why are prices falling now Matey?

You try to convince everyone on here that there is no correlation between anything and house prices.

Not migration, not mining booms, not exchange rates, not rental vacancies.

Yet here we are with migration rates collapsing, rental vacancies in record breaking territory, unemployment up, resources construction boom almost over.

Guess what Matey.

Prices are falling.

Only two things impact house prices according to you.

12,000 sales listings and 60 blocks of land selling at 1.09 blocks per dwelling.

*uck off Matey.
Matthew
13 Sep 2016, 04:27 PM
I have told you before Dimshit you are best to look at the whole market not just the bit that gives you a semi.
Says the bloke who is only looking at 12,000 listings and ignoring the rental listings side of the equation.
Edited by Jimbo, 13 Sep 2016, 04:38 PM.
Matthew, 30 Jan 2016, 09:21 AM Your simplistic view is so flawed it is not worth debating. The current oversupply will be swallowed in 12 months. By the time dumb shits like you realise this prices will already be :?: rising.
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Matthew
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newjez
13 Sep 2016, 04:18 PM
I've said 2020, but in all honesty I'd like to see how the US and China weathers the next two fed rates rises, and I'd like some direction on brexit before making a call.

Two much risk and instability out there Herbie for the Perth market to do anything.
I think you are looking too far from the things that actually matter in Western Australia.

Look at where our income is derived, population growth, construction of new housing.

China and Brexit are not the sole drivers of this state nor its house prices.

Mining is 25% of state GSP.

Iron Ore is less than 60% of that.

If IO prices fell 20% that will not crash the economy. It will not place mines into care and maintenance.

What will dive house prices up is a lack of housing construction. People like to live in houses, it is proven to be our preferred method of shelter.
Jimbo
13 Sep 2016, 04:36 PM
So why are prices falling now Matey?
Market is oversupplied. Simple as that.
Edited by Matthew, 13 Sep 2016, 04:41 PM.
My only hope for my three boys is that they turn out nothing at all like Chris.
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Jimbo
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herbie
13 Sep 2016, 03:39 PM
So wot's your suggested times ta look at buyin' inta Perth Jimbo 'n Newjez?
Maybe never. I don't need to buy in Perth.

I'll probably chuck in everyday work within the next couple of years and we may head south or east. Depends on what the kids are doing.
Matthew, 30 Jan 2016, 09:21 AM Your simplistic view is so flawed it is not worth debating. The current oversupply will be swallowed in 12 months. By the time dumb shits like you realise this prices will already be :?: rising.
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Matthew
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Jimbo
13 Sep 2016, 04:36 PM
Says the bloke who is only looking at 12,000 listings and ignoring the rental listings side of the equation.
I am not ignoring it at all. I am tracking both closely.

The market is oversupplied by a combined 7,000 units of housing (including vacant land). Down 1,400 from its peak in November last year.
My only hope for my three boys is that they turn out nothing at all like Chris.
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