Matthew was talking about an Easter turning point. Assuming no catastrophe, he could be right. I wouldn't expect much upturn at the at Easter, though things may stop dropping quiet as fast. We may have lost another 10% by then.
Based on flawed maths. Matey decided that REIWA reported land sales should be used to represent future construction levels at a rate of one block sold to one new dwelling. He also based his population growth rate on outdated numbers.
Also, Matey continued to ignore the elephant in the room, namely that a drop in construction equals a drop in employment. Construction is a very big employer in WA.
Matthew, 30 Jan 2016, 09:21 AM Your simplistic view is so flawed it is not worth debating. The current oversupply will be swallowed in 12 months. By the time dumb shits like you realise this prices will already be rising.
Perth House for sales peaked in November 2015 at 16,750 properties for sale.
As of yesterday this has steadily fallen to 14,088 or a fall of 2,662 properties for sale. This is a fall of 16% in housing stock over the past 9 months.
What is the cause of this? You would expect if more people are leaving WA for more house to be on the market, or if sales were so bad for stock to be increasing. Sales have tracked 2015 results or been slightly above 2015.
Or is it just people taking properties of the market till they can get a better price.
With stats stuff it depends what location one is looking at.
When I checked June data for West Perth, the number of props available for Sale has been steadily declining (down around 2%) for the month. This was due to a combo of lower listing plus higher sales volumes (there was like16% more sales recorded in the last week of June compared to its first week.) Plus, the number of props available for rent has been steadily increasing. So, its not surprising that the latter is due to a continued decline in the rental values. This trend is being driven by the double whammy of over-supply and a drop off in net migration to this State.
West Perth in June also saw a SHARP decline in the number of new listings to market for the month, dropping from 26 right down to just 14 new listings across the bub for the month. Sales volume dropped slightly from 19 in May to 16 in June. The drop in new listings to the market had had an effect on the toal number of available listings, bringing that down also. The median for both units and houses has decreased too.
Realise too, that fewer available lists, means that the choice to buyers is more limited and if its considered that some props on the market are overpriced, it wont sell soooo those that do sell would be the well presented and realistic priced.
Don't need to be Einstein.
Newjerk? can you try harder than dig up another person's blog. My first promo was with Billabong and my name in English is modified with a T, am Perth born but also lived in Sydney to make my $$ It's Absolutely Fabulous if it includes brilliant locations, & high calibre tenants..what more does one want? Understand the power of the two "P"" or be financially challenged Even better when there is family who are property mad and one is born in some entitlements.....Understand that beautiful women are the exhibitionists we crave attention, whilst hot blooded men are the voyeurs ... A stunning woman can command and takes pleasure in being noticed. Seems not too many understand what it means to hold and own props and get threatened by those who do. Banks are considered to be law abiding and & rather boring places yeah not true . A bank balance sheet will show capital is dwarfed by their liabilities this means when a portions of loans is falling its problems for the bank.
Matthew was talking about an Easter turning point. Assuming no catastrophe, he could be right. I wouldn't expect much upturn at the at Easter, though things may stop dropping quiet as fast. We may have lost another 10% by then.
Listings of total available dwellings (excluding land) according to REIWA peaked on 24 November at 23,832. Last week they were 22,928, a fall of 3.8%.
Dwellings for sale (excluding land) have fallen from 14,459 in November to 11,569 last week - a drop in listings of 20%.
Land for sale is static.
On a combined basis the market is oversupplied by about 5,000 dwellings. Easter is 242 days away. Will combined listings fall 20 a day between now and then? It will be pretty close.
3,060 blocks of land reported as sold by REIWA in the past 52 weeks. About 8,000 less than the peak.
We certainly will not be building an oversupply.
Jimbo
16 Aug 2016, 04:39 PM
Also, Matey continued to ignore the elephant in the room, namely that a drop in construction equals a drop in employment. Construction is a very big employer in WA.
Typical Dimshit comment.
Construction according to the ABS is 12% of total WA employment. And that is all construction, not just residential housing construction. Road, rail, commercial, school, hospital, other infrastructure etc etc etc etc etc.
A fall in residential construction will see some brickies lose part of their income and all other associated trades. It will not crash the economy or the housing market.
Take the blinkers of Dim, you appear more stupid every single day.
Mike uses whichever source suits his argument at the time. In this case it is the REIWA weekly snapshot. Mike has access to SQM, he has mentioned his many subscriptions to various data providers but SQM numbers are not reporting a fall in listings.
I look at every source with the most "real time" being a listings search on the various realestate websites.
I am not saying that REIWA are telling fibs, but they can be a bit slow when it comes to updating numbers which don't look so good. They are a vested interest body after all.
You make up what ever suits you at the time Jimbo.
I talked about falling stock levels late last year and early 2016, you said the same crap back then. 8 months later, stock is still falling and is clearly evident in the suburbs. You will find less properties for sale then mid to late 2015.
While sales are certainly subdued they have remained constant and well above present replacement levels.
You don't need to take my word for it, keep watching this space and keep watching stock levels steadily fall.
You make up what ever suits you at the time Jimbo.
I talked about falling stock levels late last year and early 2016, you said the same crap back then. 8 months later, stock is still falling and is clearly evident in the suburbs. You will find less properties for sale then mid to late 2015.
While sales are certainly subdued they have remained constant and well above present replacement levels.
You don't need to take my word for it, keep watching this space and keep watching stock levels steadily fall.
Today read the HTW August 2016 Property Clock update. Not pretty comments by the local HTW team for Perth. Indicated falling activity & prices well into 2017. Maybe a bit of time yet before the need to buy.
I talked about falling stock levels late last year and early 2016, you said the same crap back then. 8 months later, stock is still falling and is clearly evident in the suburbs. You will find less properties for sale then mid to late 2015.
You've been spruiking a new boom and rising prices for the last two years Mike. All the while, prices have been falling.
Again, as Rufus linked to, why are SQM showing a rising stock on market level over the last year?
Are REIWA maybe misreporting their own numbers?
Matthew
16 Aug 2016, 05:44 PM
3,060 blocks of land reported as sold by REIWA in the past 52 weeks. About 8,000 less than the peak.
So REIWA are reporting land sales of around a third of peak levels whilst population is growing at less than a quarter of peak levels.
So more land is selling than there are new people needing land.
Matthew, 30 Jan 2016, 09:21 AM Your simplistic view is so flawed it is not worth debating. The current oversupply will be swallowed in 12 months. By the time dumb shits like you realise this prices will already be rising.
You've been spruiking a new boom and rising prices for the last two years Mike. All the while, prices have been falling.
Again, as Rufus linked to, why are SQM showing a rising stock on market level over the last year?
Are REIWA maybe misreporting their own numbers? So REIWA are reporting land sales of around a third of peak levels whilst population is growing at less than a quarter of peak levels.
So more land is selling than there are new people needing land.
I get it.
Once again you are wrong which seems normal. I have been negative on Perth for along time, my own predictions which I made years ago had the Perth market growth ending in 2015/16 which was basically spot on. I see growth returning to Perth in 2017/18 based on falling stock levels, lower construction which will slowly eat away at supply and create greater competition in the market.
Will prices continue to fall for awhile, most likely however the signs are already to be seen or a market changing direction, just you don't want to see it for your own personal agenda.
If you dispute Reiwas figures take it up with them, I note though you never had a problem using them when it showed large increase in rental stock and vacancy rate. Suddenly Reiwa is now unreliable. Funny that.
You used to quote Reiwa almost weekly in 2015, now nothing. Wonder why!!!
Guest
17 Aug 2016, 09:44 AM
Ok then Mike, lets keep an eye on it and see how it goes .
Greater Region is not Perth, when you have properties listed for sale from regional towns some 200km from the city. Try using a different search method for an accurate property list for a start.
I have been negative on Perth for along time, my own predictions which I made years ago had the Perth market growth ending in 2015/16 which was basically spot on.
Whatever #uckwit.
You never said this then? Back in early 2015.
"Perth is knocking on the door of out performing the booming Sydney market this quarter."
Matthew, 30 Jan 2016, 09:21 AM Your simplistic view is so flawed it is not worth debating. The current oversupply will be swallowed in 12 months. By the time dumb shits like you realise this prices will already be rising.
Oh name calling now, clear sign you lost the debate. Thankyou.
That statement was accurate for that time.
Jimbo, no point endlessly debating the topic just watch and see what happens. I'm not saying prices are going to boom, I'm not saying prices will rise this year. I expect some growth to return in 2017/18.
Reiwa no longer supports your agenda so you no longer use it, that's fine. Just don't roll out the Reiwa links or screenshots when it does.
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