Fewer people wanted to buy land so less land sold. If demand picks up again, more people will want to buy land and more land will sell. There is no shortage of land.
It takes a special kind of dimshit to cheer shit land sales as a precursor to a housing market crash in an environment where the population is growing.
Congratulations, king of the dimshits.
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But isn't the "balanced" market equation meant to include a REIWA rental vacancy rate of 3%? Convenient that you and Matey keep forgetting to mention that one.[
If you had any understanding of the topic you spam relentlessly you would look at the total property market. If the 2 equilibrium points are 3% vacancy and 12,000 dwellings then the balanced market is around 18,000 combined dwellings.
As for sale listings fall prices will increase (and desirable housing will decline). This will see more people rent. As more people rent you will see rental vacancies fall leaving the less desirable dwellings for rent. This will see people buy.
This isn't a new phenomenon Dimshit, it happened 3 years ago.
And I do not ignore the rental vacancies at all. Look at the total market Dimshit, not just the bit that excites you on the day.
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Bullshit Skammy. The suburb median peaked in December 2014.
I did not sell a median priced house.
I could now buy back what I sold plus a rental place as well, all for cash and leave a decent wedge in the bank.
No mortgage, no debt.
2 days ago you could do that and buy a median priced IP. Your story changes too often for it to be true. So long as you believe it though I guess that is all that matters.
My only hope for my three boys is that they turn out nothing at all like Chris.
Even I read Mathews posts as saying when the market falls from balanced to tight you will get some price rises. I have the same opinion.
The market is certainly moving back to a balanced market, which is typically 12-13,000 properties. It has been at around these levels that confidence and price movement begins to happen. Meaning as stock continues to fall and buyers have less options to pick from competition heats up for each property.
The same thing happened over 2012 once stock on market peaked at over 18,000 in 2011. It fell back down over 2012/13 and we ended up with 15% price growth as prices moved due to increased competition in the market.
Perth is now under 14,000 properties and has been on a long downward trend since November 2015 when the market peaked close to 17,000 properties. Perth is now only very marginally in oversupply which means moving forward price declines will slow and see little to no movement in prices until stock falls below 10,000. Perth at the present rate should fall below 10,000 this time next year.
Like 2012/13 things can change quickly, once a little confidence returns to the market sales volumes pickup which eats away at stock faster creating even more competition for each property, it becomes a self fulfilling cycle.
This is how the market works, construction has reduced over the last 18 months to match a slower economy and demand, however construction has now fallen way to far. As most markets do an over reaction which will help to reduce supply even faster then most would think. This will likely have the greatest effect on rental property stock, expect to see that really start to fall in early 2017 as the much slower construction leads to very low levels of new supply entering the market. The rental market will follow the for sale market with declining stock levels.
I certainly don't predict a boom and I don't see anyone who is at this point. To ignore the obvious though is pure stupidity on your part, stock on market and its continued decline means the Perth down turn is going to end at least for housing stock. That is just a fact.
Sometimes I get more sense from foxbat. Supply and demand.
Matthew
12 Sep 2016, 02:56 PM
It takes a special kind of dimshit to cheer shit land sales as a precursor to a housing market crash in an environment where the population is growing.
Congratulations, king of the dimshits.
If you had any understanding of the topic you spam relentlessly you would look at the total property market. If the 2 equilibrium points are 3% vacancy and 12,000 dwellings then the balanced market is around 18,000 combined dwellings.
As for sale listings fall prices will increase (and desirable housing will decline). This will see more people rent. As more people rent you will see rental vacancies fall leaving the less desirable dwellings for rent. This will see people buy.
This isn't a new phenomenon Dimshit, it happened 3 years ago.
And I do not ignore the rental vacancies at all. Look at the total market Dimshit, not just the bit that excites you on the day.
2 days ago you could do that and buy a median priced IP. Your story changes too often for it to be true. So long as you believe it though I guess that is all that matters.
Could you provide a formula, possibly put it in a spreadsheet?
Seriously, you expect Perth and Brisbane to be exactly the same? Obviously if one is more attractive than the other, it will rise above the other. They swap and change. Brisbane had it's mining boom. Perth's was greater. Perth is now correcting.
I don't expect anything mate. I was just hoping you could explain the reasons why Perth house prices were higher than Brisbanes for the 2 periods before 2005 when you said they first went past.
It is your chart mate. Perhaps you can understand this shit before you post it. It will be less embarrassing for you.
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Brisbane is gearing up for the commonwealth games.
The Commonwealth Games are not being held in Brisbane.
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If you were a pom, Indian, Chinese looking to immigrate, you would choose Brisbane. It's not rocket science Matthew. People go where the work is. Perth is out of favour
Then why do many Poms, Indians and Chinese still choose Perth over Brisbane? Perhaps this is an emotional statement you want to believe, because it is not supported by any fact
newjez
12 Sep 2016, 02:58 PM
Could you provide a formula, possibly put it in a spreadsheet?
If you had any understanding of the topic you spam relentlessly you would look at the total property market. If the 2 equilibrium points are 3% vacancy and 12,000 dwellings then the balanced market is around 18,000 combined dwellings.
So now it is not 12,000 sales listings, it is 18,000 combined sales and rental listings?
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This isn't a new phenomenon Dimshit, it happened 3 years ago.
That three years ago when 80,000 people were added to the population and we were in the middle of a resources construction boom? That three years ago?
Matthew, 30 Jan 2016, 09:21 AM Your simplistic view is so flawed it is not worth debating. The current oversupply will be swallowed in 12 months. By the time dumb shits like you realise this prices will already be rising.
Seriously, you expect Perth and Brisbane to be exactly the same? Obviously if one is more attractive than the other, it will rise above the other. They swap and change. Brisbane had it's mining boom. Perth's was greater. Perth is now correcting. Brisbane is gearing up for the commonwealth games. If you were a pom, Indian, Chinese looking to immigrate, you would choose Brisbane. It's not rocket science Matthew. People go where the work is. Perth is out of favour.
Perth and Brissie look pretty cheap compared to Auckland. Like a 2 for the price of 1 deal.
So now it is not 12,000 sales listings, it is 18,000 combined sales and rental listings?
That three years ago when 80,000 people were added to the population and we were in the middle of a resources construction boom? That three years ago?
Why did Perth property prices fall by 10% then during the largest mining boom for a century with massive population growth over 2010/11.
Are you so stupid to think just because the broader economy is doing well that it will force a housing market to fall or boom. It has some effect however property markets often move in the opposite direction to the economy as witnessed in Perth over 2010/11. The largest mining investment boom and record population growth did not prevent a 10% fall in prices, so what caused the fall in prices, do you even know, I doubt it.
Why did Perth property prices fall by 10% then during the largest mining boom for a century with massive population growth over 2010/11.
Interest rates, a lot of projects up north were placed on ice, strong AUD, weak GBP, UK house price slump.
Matthew, 30 Jan 2016, 09:21 AM Your simplistic view is so flawed it is not worth debating. The current oversupply will be swallowed in 12 months. By the time dumb shits like you realise this prices will already be rising.
Bullshit. There was 2% difference in average cross rates between 2010 and December 2013. January 1 2010 it was 0.5678, December 31 2013 0.5429
What was the exchange rate 2002 to 2007?
Matthew, 30 Jan 2016, 09:21 AM Your simplistic view is so flawed it is not worth debating. The current oversupply will be swallowed in 12 months. By the time dumb shits like you realise this prices will already be rising.
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