Of course not. You just have to say I am wrong with no proof. Then you can produce a chart that shows that more often than not historically Brisbane prices have been cheaper than Perths as proof that until 2005 that was never the case
But you will have to show me where I said Perth would be booming by next Easter? Does not sound like something I would say. I did say that the listings would be in the range of a balanced market come Easter. That looks incredibly likely.
Tell you what I will do. I will book a table for 21 at the Raffles Easter Saturday. I will set the head of the table for you. And you can start by explaining to us all how Perth was more expensive than Brisbane form 1986 - 1990 and 1999 - 2001. Make sure your presentation includes lots about coffee costs and climate.
I will get them to use your chart as a table setting so everyone can follow your explanation.
Sound good to you?
So, you spend multiple pages arguing that Perth will hit the magic tipping point of 12,000, (not your figure of course, reiwas), and then prices will rise. Myself and many others say this is nonsense. Then you claim that when Perth hits the magic tipping point in Easter, you now don't expect prices to rise?
You amaze me Matthew. Truely amazing. Maybe you should work out what you do think before you start posting about it?
Whenever you have an argument with someone, there comes a moment where you must ask yourself, whatever your political persuasion, 'am I the Nazi?'
So, you spend multiple pages arguing that Perth will hit the magic tipping point of 12,000, (not your figure of course, reiwas), and then prices will rise. Myself and many others say this is nonsense.
Take the issue up with REIWA and the numerous publications to print it including AFR, The West and The Sunday Times then.
Quote:
Then you claim that when Perth hits the magic tipping point in Easter, you now don't expect prices to rise?
No peanut I expect prices to rise once the market falls below equilibrium. What I do not expect is that it will boom. The words you used were
Quote:
You have six months for the Perth market to go from dire to booming
Quote:
You amaze me Matthew. Truely amazing. Maybe you should work out what you do think before you start posting about it?
I know what I think. I also know you are an idiot. There is a big difference between rise and boom. Big difference between fall and crash. Don't go making assumptions on what you think I mean by "rise". If I think the market will boom I will use the word Boom. I do not think that is the case.
I am still waiting for you to explain all those years before 2005 where Perth property was more expensive than Brisbane. Is your silence because you cannot explain it? Are you wishing you did a little more research before producing a chart that goes against the very point you were trying to make?
I suggest you apologise to Skamy.
Jimbo
12 Sep 2016, 01:17 AM
And how many people will live in the apartments that are springing up all over the place which did not result from a REIWA reported land sale?
Your whole undersupply by Easter story is based on the premise that all supply is derived from a REIWA reported land sale multiplied by 1.09 and divided by a population growth figure which is a year out of date.
You even did the maths for everyone to see.
Here's a reminder yet again Matey.
When challenged on your simplistic theory, you accuse others of being simplistic?
Go forth Matey. Go forth.
There are four plain facts you cannot refute Dimshit
1) People like living in houses far more than on the streets, in cars and on beaches. 2) We congregate in dwellings at rate of around 2.5 people 3) The population is still growing 4) In Perth the majority of additional residential construction is detached single dwelling born from newly created land.
5,050 blocks of land sold in 87 weeks Dimshit.
The market will not crash. You should not have sold your unencumbered house expecting a crash. Like Brexit you f***ed it.
So, you spend multiple pages arguing that Perth will hit the magic tipping point of 12,000, (not your figure of course, reiwas), and then prices will rise. Myself and many others say this is nonsense. Then you claim that when Perth hits the magic tipping point in Easter, you now don't expect prices to rise?
You amaze me Matthew. Truely amazing. Maybe you should work out what you do think before you start posting about it?
Even I read Mathews posts as saying when the market falls from balanced to tight you will get some price rises. I have the same opinion.
The market is certainly moving back to a balanced market, which is typically 12-13,000 properties. It has been at around these levels that confidence and price movement begins to happen. Meaning as stock continues to fall and buyers have less options to pick from competition heats up for each property.
The same thing happened over 2012 once stock on market peaked at over 18,000 in 2011. It fell back down over 2012/13 and we ended up with 15% price growth as prices moved due to increased competition in the market.
Perth is now under 14,000 properties and has been on a long downward trend since November 2015 when the market peaked close to 17,000 properties. Perth is now only very marginally in oversupply which means moving forward price declines will slow and see little to no movement in prices until stock falls below 10,000. Perth at the present rate should fall below 10,000 this time next year.
Like 2012/13 things can change quickly, once a little confidence returns to the market sales volumes pickup which eats away at stock faster creating even more competition for each property, it becomes a self fulfilling cycle.
This is how the market works, construction has reduced over the last 18 months to match a slower economy and demand, however construction has now fallen way to far. As most markets do an over reaction which will help to reduce supply even faster then most would think. This will likely have the greatest effect on rental property stock, expect to see that really start to fall in early 2017 as the much slower construction leads to very low levels of new supply entering the market. The rental market will follow the for sale market with declining stock levels.
I certainly don't predict a boom and I don't see anyone who is at this point. To ignore the obvious though is pure stupidity on your part, stock on market and its continued decline means the Perth down turn is going to end at least for housing stock. That is just a fact.
Even I read Mathews posts as saying when the market falls from balanced to tight you will get some price rises. I have the same opinion.
The market is certainly moving back to a balanced market, which is typically 12-13,000 properties. It has been at around these levels that confidence and price movement begins to happen. Meaning as stock continues to fall and buyers have less options to pick from competition heats up for each property.
The same thing happened over 2012 once stock on market peaked at over 18,000 in 2011. It fell back down over 2012/13 and we ended up with 15% price growth as prices moved due to increased competition in the market.
Perth is now under 14,000 properties and has been on a long downward trend since November 2015 when the market peaked close to 17,000 properties. Perth is now only very marginally in oversupply which means moving forward price declines will slow and see little to no movement in prices until stock falls below 10,000. Perth at the present rate should fall below 10,000 this time next year.
Like 2012/13 things can change quickly, once a little confidence returns to the market sales volumes pickup which eats away at stock faster creating even more competition for each property, it becomes a self fulfilling cycle.
This is how the market works, construction has reduced over the last 18 months to match a slower economy and demand, however construction has now fallen way to far. As most markets do an over reaction which will help to reduce supply even faster then most would think. This will likely have the greatest effect on rental property stock, expect to see that really start to fall in early 2017 as the much slower construction leads to very low levels of new supply entering the market. The rental market will follow the for sale market with declining stock levels.
I certainly don't predict a boom and I don't see anyone who is at this point. To ignore the obvious though is pure stupidity on your part, stock on market and its continued decline means the Perth down turn is going to end at least for housing stock. That is just a fact.
Hang in there Mikey. Personally, I think Perth is cheap compared to other isolated Western cities. I'd imagine the kite surfing's good too.
I can buy back what I sold, plus at least a decent median priced rental property, for cash and still leave a hefty wedge in the bank.
I don't pay any interest because I owe bugger all to anybody.
All because I saw an angle and took the opportunity.
My angle?
Perth was in the tail end of the biggest binge of excess I had ever witnessed in my life but most people didn't realise it was the tail end and thought it would go on forever. Time to sell and put my money elsewhere.
Seems like some are still in denial.
I wonder for how much longer?
Because house prices are simply related to average wages Trollie?
Nothing to do with Skammys, Mateys and Mikeys taking out huge lines of credit to buy IP's during a rental shortage then?
Jimbo the median house in Warnbro is up from $371k to $385k you have lost money on the sales price plus sales costs plus 2 years of rent at $500 a week.
Why do u continuously deny this - you will only lose more the longer you wait - everything in Perth is getting better - your gamble on behaviour did not pay off- loads of people did not spend all their FIFO money on houses they could not afford and loads of people did not sell their homes and fail to find new jobs. It is just the same as your Brexit gamble you thought people were stuck to the EU - they were not.
The only question now is how long will you hold onto this losing gamble.
Definition of a doom and gloomer from 1993 The last camp is made up of the doom-and-gloomers. Their slogan is "it's the end of the world as we know it". Right now they are convinced that debt is the evil responsible for all our economic woes and must be eliminated at all cost. Many doom-and-gloomers believe that unprecedented debt levels mean that we are on the precipice of a worse crisis than the Great Depression. The doom-and-gloomers hang on the latest series of negative economic data.
Jimbo the median house in Warnbro is up from $371k to $385k you have lost money on the sales price plus sales costs plus 2 years of rent at $500 a week.
Why do u continuously deny this - you will only lose more the longer you wait - everything in Perth is getting better - your gamble on behaviour did not pay off- loads of people did not spend all their FIFO money on houses they could not afford and loads of people did not sell their homes and fail to find new jobs. It is just the same as your Brexit gamble you thought people were stuck to the EU - they were not.
The only question now is how long will you hold onto this losing gamble.
Hear hear Roddy. Compare that to say Auckland NZ, where the average price is now NZD1 million (AUD970,000), equivalent to about 32 years of renting.
4) In Perth the majority of additional residential construction is detached single dwelling born from newly created land.
5,050 blocks of land sold in 87 weeks Dimshit.
Yes Matey.
Fewer people wanted to buy land so less land sold. If demand picks up again, more people will want to buy land and more land will sell. There is no shortage of land.
Meanwhile, brickies, chippies, sparkies, plumbers etc have less work to do.
Mike
12 Sep 2016, 11:39 AM
The market is certainly moving back to a balanced market, which is typically 12-13,000 properties.
But isn't the "balanced" market equation meant to include a REIWA rental vacancy rate of 3%?
Convenient that you and Matey keep forgetting to mention that one.
skamy
12 Sep 2016, 01:05 PM
Jimbo the median house in Warnbro is up from $371k to $385k you have lost money on the sales price plus sales costs plus 2 years of rent at $500 a week.
Bullshit Skammy. The suburb median peaked in December 2014.
I did not sell a median priced house.
I could now buy back what I sold plus a rental place as well, all for cash and leave a decent wedge in the bank.
Matthew, 30 Jan 2016, 09:21 AM Your simplistic view is so flawed it is not worth debating. The current oversupply will be swallowed in 12 months. By the time dumb shits like you realise this prices will already be rising.
Take the issue up with REIWA and the numerous publications to print it including AFR, The West and The Sunday Times then.
No peanut I expect prices to rise once the market falls below equilibrium. What I do not expect is that it will boom. The words you used were
I know what I think. I also know you are an idiot. There is a big difference between rise and boom. Big difference between fall and crash. Don't go making assumptions on what you think I mean by "rise". If I think the market will boom I will use the word Boom. I do not think that is the case.
I am still waiting for you to explain all those years before 2005 where Perth property was more expensive than Brisbane. Is your silence because you cannot explain it? Are you wishing you did a little more research before producing a chart that goes against the very point you were trying to make?
I suggest you apologise to Skamy. There are four plain facts you cannot refute Dimshit
1) People like living in houses far more than on the streets, in cars and on beaches. 2) We congregate in dwellings at rate of around 2.5 people 3) The population is still growing 4) In Perth the majority of additional residential construction is detached single dwelling born from newly created land.
5,050 blocks of land sold in 87 weeks Dimshit.
The market will not crash. You should not have sold your unencumbered house expecting a crash. Like Brexit you f***ed it.
Seriously, you expect Perth and Brisbane to be exactly the same? Obviously if one is more attractive than the other, it will rise above the other. They swap and change. Brisbane had it's mining boom. Perth's was greater. Perth is now correcting. Brisbane is gearing up for the commonwealth games. If you were a pom, Indian, Chinese looking to immigrate, you would choose Brisbane. It's not rocket science Matthew. People go where the work is. Perth is out of favour.
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