You can clearly see that Perth passed Brisbane in 2005. What started in 2005? What started in 2005 and is currently unwinding? 2020 if you are lucky guys.
You cannot compare two cities on different sides of a continent separated by nearly 5000km. Completely different markets.
You can try though, convince me, state your argument.
What do you base that on? Gut feel or something a little more tangible?
Not really. There is nothing at all from supply, demand, cost or funding points of view to support a crash.
There are several logical reasons for Perth property prices to be higher than Brisbane and if you had ever lived in both locations they would be as plain as the nose on your face.
Outside of the fact that WA has a higher wage rate our houses are larger as is land. Centrally located houses are of a higher standard (there are a lot of dilapidated Queenslanders in areas of comparable location to Stirling, Karrinyup, Innaloo where we have basically rebuilt the entire suburb in Perth over the past 15 years). We do not have the same obsession or proliferation of apartment living. We do not have our retirees largely moving to the Sunshine or Gold coasts where they can still keep family ties to those in the Brisbane area. The more temperate climate is attractive to migrants and retirees. More of our property is in close proximity to our beaches and commands a price premium like all other cities.
Even all that aside the fact that Perth property prices are lower than Brisbanes is not reason enough for Perth prices to fall. It can make a case for larger rises in Brisbane however.
Of course none of this matters does it?
To be honest some things are more obvious when you live amongst them.
You've said nothing, and what you have said is incorrect. Perth overtook Brisbane in 2005. Which just shows that everything you have said is a lie.
2020 is the minimum lead time for the world's economy to recover sufficiently for Perth house prices to start to rise. Even that is wildly optimistic. I don't think you realise how bad the world economy is. If the fed can raise rates in September, you may get an inkling if you are lucky.
Mike
11 Sep 2016, 12:37 PM
You cannot compare two cities on different sides of a continent separated by nearly 5000km. Completely different markets.
You can try though, convince me, state your argument.
House prices are largely determined by supply and demand. Supply is over the long term average. Demand is largely driven by migration. Immigrants have a clear choice between Perth and Brisbane. More jobs in Brisbane, cheaper cost of living. Perth only outshone Brisbane because of the mining boom which is only now unwinding.
It is true that Brisbane may rise rather than Perth falls. But probably both, and meet they will.
House prices are largely determined by supply and demand. Supply is over the long term average. Demand is largely driven by migration. Immigrants have a clear choice between Perth and Brisbane. More jobs in Brisbane, cheaper cost of living. Perth only outshone Brisbane because of the mining boom which is only now unwinding.
It is true that Brisbane may rise rather than Perth falls. But probably both, and meet they will.
I disagree. I do not expect Perth to fall to Brisbane levels, rather Brisbane will rise to Perth levels over time.
The biggest issue though for Brisbane is it has a lot of competition from very close by cities. Sunshine coast to its north, Gold coast to its south and Toowoomba inland.
The times I have been to Brisbane I was not impressed, it falls far behind Perth in terms of living, location and lifestyle. Between the two I would pick Perth every day of the week.
Now on the other hand if I had the choice of Sunshine Coast, Gold Coast, Perth or Brisbane well Brisbane is last every time and I'm sure a lot of people would hold similar views.
The simple fact is Perth does not have a Sunshine or Gold coast to lure away population, Perth's suburbs and beaches have most of that life style already without the high rises on the waters edge.
Brisbane is not bad, I would pick it above Sydney, I hated living in Sydney. In terms of Australia, Melbourne is by far the best city, love the place hence why it has been the most livable city for some time now in the world. If only it had Perth's climate.
We can go round and round in circles, Brisbane in my opinion is a very different city and far from the standard Perth offers.
I disagree. I do not expect Perth to fall to Brisbane levels, rather Brisbane will rise to Perth levels over time.
The biggest issue though for Brisbane is it has a lot of competition from very close by cities. Sunshine coast to its north, Gold coast to its south and Toowoomba inland.
The times I have been to Brisbane I was not impressed, it falls far behind Perth in terms of living, location and lifestyle. Between the two I would pick Perth every day of the week.
Now on the other hand if I had the choice of Sunshine Coast, Gold Coast, Perth or Brisbane well Brisbane is last every time and I'm sure a lot of people would hold similar views.
The simple fact is Perth does not have a Sunshine or Gold coast to lure away population, Perth's suburbs and beaches have most of that life style already without the high rises on the waters edge.
Brisbane is not bad, I would pick it above Sydney, I hated living in Sydney. In terms of Australia, Melbourne is by far the best city, love the place hence why it has been the most livable city for some time now in the world. If only it had Perth's climate.
We can go round and round in circles, Brisbane in my opinion is a very different city and far from the standard Perth offers.
Mike, the data is bleedingly obvious. I have stated quite clearly the case. Where as you and Matthew are telling us the Easter bunny will bring higher prices. Good luck with that.
You've said nothing, and what you have said is incorrect. Perth overtook Brisbane in 2005. Which just shows that everything you have said is a lie.
Actually everything I have said is spot on. Anyone who has lived in both cities in the period you are talking about would agree with me. I lived in Qld in 2005. Collingwood Estate was being heavily promoted as your LAST CHANCE to buy land in Brisbane. $220k for a tiny block in the middle of west bum f*** nowhere. Apartments were shooting into the sky on the Gold Coast including Q1.
If you disagree with me use some facts to refute each of the points I made. If you cant do that then get f***ed.
Quote:
2020 is the minimum lead time for the world's economy to recover sufficiently for Perth house prices to start to rise. Even that is wildly optimistic.
The two are not universally linked anywhere other than inside your tiny mind.
Quote:
I don't think you realise how bad the world economy is. If the fed can raise rates in September, you may get an inkling if you are lucky.
Don't try to be condescending you prick, you aren't smart enough to pull it off.
Quote:
House prices are largely determined by supply and demand. Supply is over the long term average. Demand is largely driven by migration. Immigrants have a clear choice between Perth and Brisbane. More jobs in Brisbane, cheaper cost of living. Perth only outshone Brisbane because of the mining boom which is only now unwinding.
They have more choice than that. Don't over complicate things you are not smart enough to comprehend.
Quote:
It is true that Brisbane may rise rather than Perth falls. But probably both, and meet they will.
It is more likely that they will meet through Brisbane rising than Perth falling. It is also likely that they will never meet.
newjez
11 Sep 2016, 01:25 PM
Mike, the data is bleedingly obvious. I have stated quite clearly the case.
You have provided a chart showing Perth prices intersecting Brisbane's over a decade ago and linked it to the mining boom and coffee prices. You have completely ignored Qld's own mining boom over the same period as if it is irrelevant. Ignored all lifestyle, climate and competing location arguments that have been put to you as well as the lure of Sydney and Melbourne over Brisbane. Because you think the natural order should have Brisbane on top of Perth no matter what.
You pull the piss out of Skamy for posting charts you claim she does not understand and then you do the exact same thing.
If it wasn't frustrating it would be hilarious.
doubleview
11 Sep 2016, 01:45 PM
Different citys indeed, what you say is true.
However, Brisbanes weather is pretty bloody good V Perths Weather is terrible. Thus offsets Perth better standard of city etc you talk about.
I didnt appreciate Brisbanes weather until I moved to Perth!
Whole summer months of 40 - 45 degrees must take its toll on pensioners!
Brisbanes winters beat Perths hands down, but you can keep November - February.
One thing we don't need in Perth is soak wells in our lawns. We don't need to take our lives into our own hands driving Cunninghams Gap in a torrential downpour. And we don't have our sunglasses fog up every time we get out of our cars.
You can clearly see that Perth passed Brisbane in 2005. What started in 2005? What started in 2005 and is currently unwinding? 2020 if you are lucky guys.
So what about 1986 - 1990 and 1999 - 2001 where Perth was also clearly above Brisbane? What is your explanation in those periods?
In fact in the 26 years of your chart it appears that Brisbane is only more expensive than Perth for 12 of them. Your own chart makes a mockery of your assertions.
Brisbanes winters beat Perths hands down, but you can keep November - February.We don't need to take our lives into our own hands driving Cunninghams Gap in a torrential downpour. And we don't have our sunglasses fog up every time we get out of our cars.
yep Brisbanes winter is the standout! cunninghams gap has improved out of site
Mike
11 Sep 2016, 02:48 PM
Like Hell it dose, you can stick that humidity.
Give me 40 any day over low 30's and high humidity, stuff that.
Pensioners prefer a dry Perth heat over a humid heat like Brisbane.
Have you ever lived there or are have you just been on holidays - Ever heard of acclimatising.
Bris has 80 - 90 percent near perfect weather year round. maybe 30 - 60 days a year where you actually notice the weather - humidity, cold. No need to even buy winter stuff just the odd jacket.
Perth doesnt even compare, over west you always have to consider the weather. maybe 80 - 120 days a year of really nice weather.
Brisbanes winters beat Perths hands down, but you can keep November - February.
One thing we don't need in Perth is soak wells in our lawns. We don't need to take our lives into our own hands driving Cunninghams Gap in a torrential downpour. And we don't have our sunglasses fog up every time we get out of our cars.
Actually November is quite a nice month, maybe a couple of warm days but not too bad. The first real heat starts late December, often on Boxing Day, and lasts until early to mid March, but it still has the best weather of any capital city in Australia.
Take risks - if you win you will become wealthy, if you lose you will become wise
Actually everything I have said is spot on. Anyone who has lived in both cities in the period you are talking about would agree with me. I lived in Qld in 2005. Collingwood Estate was being heavily promoted as your LAST CHANCE to buy land in Brisbane. $220k for a tiny block in the middle of west bum f*** nowhere. Apartments were shooting into the sky on the Gold Coast including Q1.
If you disagree with me use some facts to refute each of the points I made. If you cant do that then get f***ed.
The two are not universally linked anywhere other than inside your tiny mind.
Don't try to be condescending you prick, you aren't smart enough to pull it off.
They have more choice than that. Don't over complicate things you are not smart enough to comprehend.
It is more likely that they will meet through Brisbane rising than Perth falling. It is also likely that they will never meet. You have provided a chart showing Perth prices intersecting Brisbane's over a decade ago and linked it to the mining boom and coffee prices. You have completely ignored Qld's own mining boom over the same period as if it is irrelevant. Ignored all lifestyle, climate and competing location arguments that have been put to you as well as the lure of Sydney and Melbourne over Brisbane. Because you think the natural order should have Brisbane on top of Perth no matter what.
You pull the piss out of Skamy for posting charts you claim she does not understand and then you do the exact same thing.
If it wasn't frustrating it would be hilarious. Brisbanes winters beat Perths hands down, but you can keep November - February.
One thing we don't need in Perth is soak wells in our lawns. We don't need to take our lives into our own hands driving Cunninghams Gap in a torrential downpour. And we don't have our sunglasses fog up every time we get out of our cars. So what about 1986 - 1990 and 1999 - 2001 where Perth was also clearly above Brisbane? What is your explanation in those periods?
In fact in the 26 years of your chart it appears that Brisbane is only more expensive than Perth for 12 of them. Your own chart makes a mockery of your assertions.
Or did the world begin in 2005 for you?
I don't have to prove anything Matthew. All I have to do is wait until Easter. I'll be over in Perth then. Maybe you could buy me a beer and tell me about your monumental f***up?
You have six months for the Perth market to go from dire to booming.
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