There are a couple of really funny threads based around his comical interpretation of numbers, basic maths.
He is a well established forum laughing stock who ran away on the back of a tale of woe claiming that "there is more to life" etc.
Similar to you Matey.
Very similar.
Creepy.
When Mike started this thread he referenced November 17's listings (16,750). Last week they were 13,979. Is 13,979 a bigger number than 16,750, or smaller Dim?
When Mike started this thread there were 14,088 listings. Last week that was 13,979. Is 13,979 a bigger number than 14,088 Dim, or is it smaller?
Mike was spot on. Listings have fallen since his November 17 reference point. Fallen since he started this thread as well.
Do you really want to debate gravity, or can you just act half intelligent and concede he is right?
Quote:
Similar to you Matey.
Very similar.
In my first day posting here you accused me of being Skamy because she is catholic and I have a catholic name. Now you are accusing me of being Mike?
Change your meds Dimshit, these ones aren't strong enough for your paranoia.
My only hope for my three boys is that they turn out nothing at all like Chris.
When Mike started this thread he referenced November 17's listings (16,750). Last week they were 13,979. Is 13,979 a bigger number than 16,750, or smaller Dim?
When Mike started this thread there were 14,088 listings. Last week that was 13,979. Is 13,979 a bigger number than 14,088 Dim, or is it smaller?
Mike was spot on. Listings have fallen since his November 17 reference point. Fallen since he started this thread as well.
Do you really want to debate gravity, or can you just act half intelligent and concede he is right?
In my first day posting here you accused me of being Skamy because she is catholic and I have a catholic name. Now you are accusing me of being Mike?
Change your meds Dimshit, these ones aren't strong enough for your paranoia.
So, as we move into spring, and the markets pick up, the number of listings will increase... but they are not increasing, so that is even better isn't it. It must be better. How could it not be better. So up is good, down is better!
Can you not see a potential problem with that Matt?
Whenever you have an argument with someone, there comes a moment where you must ask yourself, whatever your political persuasion, 'am I the Nazi?'
So, as we move into spring, and the markets pick up, the number of listings will increase... but they are not increasing, so that is even better isn't it. It must be better. How could it not be better. So up is good, down is better!
Can you not see a potential problem with that Matt?
Instead of trying to be cryptic which you clearly don't have the skills nor intelligence to pull off why don't you put your cock on the block, so to speak, and tell us what you think will happen and why.
I think that prices will soften until the market balances. I expect that to occur in April next year. by this time next year I expect prices to be rising.
What do you think though hillbilly? And why do you think it?
Or are you one of these keyboard warrior hero's like Terry who exist only to ridicule others with an opinion while being too scared to provide one of their own?
Instead of trying to be cryptic which you clearly don't have the skills nor intelligence to pull off why don't you put your cock on the block, so to speak, and tell us what you think will happen and why.
I think that prices will soften until the market balances. I expect that to occur in April next year. by this time next year I expect prices to be rising.
What do you think though hillbilly? And why do you think it?
Or are you one of these keyboard warrior hero's like Terry who exist only to ridicule others with an opinion while being too scared to provide one of their own?
I'm not ridiculing you Uncle Matty. It's entirely possible to model supply and population with house prices. Methodologically, it's not particularly difficult.
Doing it with a pen and a tattered envelope is a whole other thing.
Instead of trying to be cryptic which you clearly don't have the skills nor intelligence to pull off why don't you put your cock on the block, so to speak, and tell us what you think will happen and why.
I think that prices will soften until the market balances. I expect that to occur in April next year. by this time next year I expect prices to be rising.
What do you think though hillbilly? And why do you think it?
Or are you one of these keyboard warrior hero's like Terry who exist only to ridicule others with an opinion while being too scared to provide one of their own?
I've said many times that I wouldn't expect a Perth recovery till after 2020. Whether they will fall substantially before then is up for debate. There is no logical reason for Perth property to be higher than Brisbane.
When Mike started this thread he referenced November 17's listings (16,750). Last week they were 13,979. Is 13,979 a bigger number than 16,750, or smaller Dim?
When Mike started this thread there were 14,088 listings. Last week that was 13,979. Is 13,979 a bigger number than 14,088 Dim, or is it smaller?
Mike was spot on. Listings have fallen since his November 17 reference point. Fallen since he started this thread as well.
Do you really want to debate gravity, or can you just act half intelligent and concede he is right?
In my first day posting here you accused me of being Skamy because she is catholic and I have a catholic name. Now you are accusing me of being Mike?
Change your meds Dimshit, these ones aren't strong enough for your paranoia.
Jimbo hates the fact I'm right as falling stock on market means in the not to distant future price pressures will build again as they always do.
The simple fact is price declines will soon come to an end as the excess supply in the market has been absorbed. Perth is normally in a balanced market when Reiwa shows 12-13,000 properties for sale.
That does not mean we will see large price rises at this point just it should mean the market should remain balanced, not much growth or falls.
The problem Jimbo has is construction has rapidly declined over the past 18 months, to get a large bust he needed construction to remain very strong to create a large oversupply for a sustained period. Perth did not even hit the peak of oversupply in 2011 when properties for sale hit over 18,000 on Reiwa.
Stock is likely to fall further and faster as we move forward due to much lower construction and hence reduced supply entering the market right at the time that stock on market has returned to balanced levels in early 2017. Sales will pickup as confidence returns to the market that is no longer oversupplied but we should also see listings bounce around a lot as people who deferred sales now put properties on the market to complete their life choices.
I think it may take a bit longer to see price growth then yourself, likely 2nd half of 2017, perhaps some smaller growth. You have to factor in the economy is slow with higher unemployment which provides a drag.
At present Perth is 1000-1500 properties away from a balanced market, then it will take time to reduce this further to create a tight market, typically once we get to 8,000-9,000 properties which we could approach by the same time next year, right in time for spring and summer selling seasons.
newjez
10 Sep 2016, 04:24 PM
I've said many times that I wouldn't expect a Perth recovery till after 2020. Whether they will fall substantially before then is up for debate. There is no logical reason for Perth property to be higher than Brisbane.
One reason Perth is nearly always higher then Brisbane is you have far more options on the East coast, Sydney, Melbourne and the dozens of regional costal cities.
Perth you really have limited options unless you want to go way north which is not the same as North Queensland or the NSW central coast. We have some options in the SW.
So Perth due to its isolation with the closest large city 1800km away in Adelaide tends to have a greater demand on housing and resources then Brisbane due to this fact.
It is only one small factor, but you cannot compare Brisbane with Perth, one major factor that holds Brisbane back is you have the Gold coast and many other attractive locations to live which takes pressure of the main city and hence demand. Perth has far less in this regards.
Jimbo hates the fact I'm right as falling stock on market means in the not to distant future price pressures will build again as they always do.
The simple fact is price declines will soon come to an end as the excess supply in the market has been absorbed. Perth is normally in a balanced market when Reiwa shows 12-13,000 properties for sale.
That does not mean we will see large price rises at this point just it should mean the market should remain balanced, not much growth or falls.
The problem Jimbo has is construction has rapidly declined over the past 18 months, to get a large bust he needed construction to remain very strong to create a large oversupply for a sustained period. Perth did not even hit the peak of oversupply in 2011 when properties for sale hit over 18,000 on Reiwa.
Stock is likely to fall further and faster as we move forward due to much lower construction and hence reduced supply entering the market right at the time that stock on market has returned to balanced levels in early 2017. Sales will pickup as confidence returns to the market that is no longer oversupplied but we should also see listings bounce around a lot as people who deferred sales now put properties on the market to complete their life choices.
I think it may take a bit longer to see price growth then yourself, likely 2nd half of 2017, perhaps some smaller growth. You have to factor in the economy is slow with higher unemployment which provides a drag.
At present Perth is 1000-1500 properties away from a balanced market, then it will take time to reduce this further to create a tight market, typically once we get to 8,000-9,000 properties which we could approach by the same time next year, right in time for spring and summer selling seasons. One reason Perth is nearly always higher then Brisbane is you have far more options on the East coast, Sydney, Melbourne and the dozens of regional costal cities.
Perth you really have limited options unless you want to go way north which is not the same as North Queensland or the NSW central coast. We have some options in the SW.
So Perth due to its isolation with the closest large city 1800km away in Adelaide tends to have a greater demand on housing and resources then Brisbane due to this fact.
It is only one small factor, but you cannot compare Brisbane with Perth, one major factor that holds Brisbane back is you have the Gold coast and many other attractive locations to live which takes pressure of the main city and hence demand. Perth has far less in this regards.
As stringberg says, that's just an outright lie mike
You can clearly see that Perth passed Brisbane in 2005. What started in 2005? What started in 2005 and is currently unwinding? 2020 if you are lucky guys.
I've said many times that I wouldn't expect a Perth recovery till after 2020.
What do you base that on? Gut feel or something a little more tangible?
Quote:
Whether they will fall substantially before then is up for debate.
Not really. There is nothing at all from supply, demand, cost or funding points of view to support a crash.
Quote:
There is no logical reason for Perth property to be higher than Brisbane.
There are several logical reasons for Perth property prices to be higher than Brisbane and if you had ever lived in both locations they would be as plain as the nose on your face.
Outside of the fact that WA has a higher wage rate our houses are larger as is land. Centrally located houses are of a higher standard (there are a lot of dilapidated Queenslanders in areas of comparable location to Stirling, Karrinyup, Innaloo where we have basically rebuilt the entire suburb in Perth over the past 15 years). We do not have the same obsession or proliferation of apartment living. We do not have our retirees largely moving to the Sunshine or Gold coasts where they can still keep family ties to those in the Brisbane area. The more temperate climate is attractive to migrants and retirees. More of our property is in close proximity to our beaches and commands a price premium like all other cities.
Even all that aside the fact that Perth property prices are lower than Brisbanes is not reason enough for Perth prices to fall. It can make a case for larger rises in Brisbane however.
Of course none of this matters does it?
To be honest some things are more obvious when you live amongst them.
My only hope for my three boys is that they turn out nothing at all like Chris.
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