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Perth Housing stock continues to fall
Topic Started: 12 Aug 2016, 02:42 PM (50,701 Views)
Matthew
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newjez
8 Sep 2016, 04:17 PM
That proves nothing.

Look at the sales figures.

There is no turn around.

If listings are dropping, it's because they are dropping, not selling.
I think you need to do some actual research as opposed to saying what you think is happening when it is completely wrong.
Jimbo
8 Sep 2016, 04:49 PM
And you get excited about a small drop in an historically high number of rental vacancies in the middle of winter.
I am not looking just at rental vacancy rates. I am talking about the entire Perth metro property market.
Edited by Matthew, 8 Sep 2016, 05:22 PM.
My only hope for my three boys is that they turn out nothing at all like Chris.
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Rufus
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newjez
8 Sep 2016, 04:17 PM
That proves nothing.
Look at the sales figures.
There is no turn around.

If listings are dropping, it's because they are dropping, not selling.
Not necessarily, it depends on the data speed and how the data is collected.

Sales data takes some months to come through. By the time a contract settles, then the transfer registers, and then the sale gets reported to a data reseller like corelogic. At least two months but more likely 3 months.

But stock on market and rental stock is done with a scraper program that is pretty much instantaneous. Well maybe overnight.

Not saying that Matthew and Mike are right, but you have not proved them wrong in any way.
Take risks - if you win you will become wealthy, if you lose you will become wise
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newjez
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Rufus
8 Sep 2016, 05:25 PM
Not necessarily, it depends on the data speed and how the data is collected.

Sales data takes some months to come through. By the time a contract settles, then the transfer registers, and then the sale gets reported to a data reseller like corelogic. At least two months but more likely 3 months.

But stock on market and rental stock is done with a scraper program that is pretty much instantaneous. Well maybe overnight.

Not saying that Matthew and Mike are right, but you have not proved them wrong in any way.
Ditto

Show me increasing sales and I'll show you a recovery.

Maybe sales could turn around on a coin, and go from 20% down (on the previous years shite figures) to positive. But I doubt that. Mores likely that they have given up after a three year downturn, and decided to renovate instead, or just put up with it rather than move, or try and rent it again.

You're looking at a stagnant market.

There are no reasons for that to change.

When commodities start to recover, Perth will recover. Maybe 2020.

Till then, sell Perth housing and buy commodities.

When commodities rise, swap.


https://www0.landgate.wa.gov.au/property-reports/market-trends/property-statistics/house-price-statistics
Edited by newjez, 9 Sep 2016, 04:15 AM.
Whenever you have an argument with someone, there comes a moment where you must ask yourself, whatever your political persuasion, 'am I the Nazi?'
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Jimbo
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Matthew
8 Sep 2016, 05:21 PM
I am not looking just at rental vacancy rates. I am talking about the entire Perth metro property market.
Oh yeah, properties for sale (as listed by REIWA) are down by 333 or 2.32% on this time last year.

Boom times are coming.

Matthew, 30 Jan 2016, 09:21 AM Your simplistic view is so flawed it is not worth debating. The current oversupply will be swallowed in 12 months. By the time dumb shits like you realise this prices will already be :?: rising.
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Matthew
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newjez
8 Sep 2016, 09:42 PM
When commodities start to recover, Perth will recover. Maybe 2020.
So in 2004 when the Iron Ore spot price was US$16.39 for example and prices in Perth increased 13.5%?

Fact is Iron ore prices today are 2x long term average. With more mines in operation employing more people.

What sort of recovery are you wanting to see exactly?
Jimbo
9 Sep 2016, 04:31 AM
Oh yeah, properties for sale (as listed by REIWA) are down by 333 or 2.32% on this time last year.

Boom times are coming.
For a start the decline between September 9 last year and 7 this year is 331, not 333.

Semantics aside in true dimshit fashion you take a point in time that suits you. You ignore that listings rose an additional 2,659 in the next 11 weeks to 16,969.

They have since fallen 2,990 listings or 17.6%.

This time last year listings were rising. This year they are falling. Market is turning. Ignore it at your own peril.
Edited by Matthew, 9 Sep 2016, 10:33 AM.
My only hope for my three boys is that they turn out nothing at all like Chris.
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Rufus
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newjez
8 Sep 2016, 09:42 PM
Ditto

Show me increasing sales and I'll show you a recovery.
I explained how long the sales data takes to arrive, and then you ignored that by pointing to the sales numbers for the last three months including August.

You may as well throw a dart at a random numbers board.
Edited by Rufus, 9 Sep 2016, 10:42 AM.
Take risks - if you win you will become wealthy, if you lose you will become wise
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Trollie
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Matthew
9 Sep 2016, 10:27 AM
So in 2004 when the Iron Ore spot price was US$16.39 for example and prices in Perth increased 13.5%?

Fact is Iron ore prices today are 2x long term average. With more mines in operation employing more people.

What sort of recovery are you wanting to see exactly?

For a start the decline between September 9 last year and 7 this year is 331, not 333.

Semantics aside in true dimshit fashion you take a point in time that suits you. You ignore that listings rose an additional 2,659 in the next 11 weeks to 16,969.

They have since fallen 2,990 listings or 17.6%.

This time last year listings were rising. This year they are falling. Market is turning. Ignore it at your own peril.
Bear Trap, Bear Trap, BEAR TRAP!!!
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newjez
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Matthew
9 Sep 2016, 10:27 AM
So in 2004 when the Iron Ore spot price was US$16.39 for example and prices in Perth increased 13.5%?

Fact is Iron ore prices today are 2x long term average. With more mines in operation employing more people.

What sort of recovery are you wanting to see exactly?

For a start the decline between September 9 last year and 7 this year is 331, not 333.

Semantics aside in true dimshit fashion you take a point in time that suits you. You ignore that listings rose an additional 2,659 in the next 11 weeks to 16,969.

They have since fallen 2,990 listings or 17.6%.

This time last year listings were rising. This year they are falling. Market is turning. Ignore it at your own peril.
It's not 2004, and who said I was talking solely about iron ore?

Other resources are available.
Rufus
9 Sep 2016, 10:41 AM
I explained how long the sales data takes to arrive, and then you ignored that by pointing to the sales numbers for the last three months including August.

You may as well throw a dart at a random numbers board.
No, I was looking at may, April, march, Feb, Jan, Dec, Nov, Oct....

...and wondering if there had been any fundamental change since the last three years.

This is not just a simple matter of oversupply that will be eaten up by time.
Edited by newjez, 9 Sep 2016, 12:17 PM.
Whenever you have an argument with someone, there comes a moment where you must ask yourself, whatever your political persuasion, 'am I the Nazi?'
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Matthew
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newjez
9 Sep 2016, 12:13 PM
It's not 2004, and who said I was talking solely about iron ore?

Other resources are available.

So you waiting for a recovery in Gold?

It appears to me that like Dimbo commenting on what he thought was happening in the UK which turned out to be a pile of shit you are falling into the same trap talking about what you think is happening instead of what is.

You may note I don't comment a lot on Qld, NSW, SA or Vic threads about pricing in property. Because I don't live there, I am not living amongst it, I am not looking at what is happening. So any opinion I may have is likely to be wrong.

Equally I don't comment on Brexit specifically because I was not close enough to it. I did defer to you on several occasions as someone living amongst it.

I think you can learn a bit from me in that regard. You don't live in Perth. You don't drive the streets of Perth everyday. You are not seeing the change in market dynamics. Good houses in good locations are selling quickly. Good houses in good locations continue to be tenanted.

You and Dimshit cheered rising listings as a reason for price falls. Yet you seem to think that falling listings will have no impact on the same.

You have an opinion. I wouldn't pay you a penny for it.
Edited by Matthew, 9 Sep 2016, 12:57 PM.
My only hope for my three boys is that they turn out nothing at all like Chris.
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BearTrap
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Rastus2
6 Sep 2016, 07:29 PM

Sydney has fewer listings than Brisbane ?

Really ?
mr ratsus pls condiser sydney very "under supply" & this shall 103 pc guarnatee "big boom" shall continue for ever or 4 yrs which ever isthe lesser !
Bear Trap: A false signal that the rising trend of a stock or index has reversed when it has not. This can also occur during a bear market reversal when short sellers believe the market will sink back to its declining ways. If the market continues to rise, short sellers get trapped and are forced to cover their positions at higher prices.
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