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Perth Housing stock continues to fall
Topic Started: 12 Aug 2016, 02:42 PM (50,703 Views)
Mike
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Jimbo
5 Sep 2016, 01:14 AM
When you Skammy and Mikey attended the property seminar in 2012, no doubt you were seduced by the very low vacancy rate and high demand for rental properties. You would have been shown graphs of Perths growing population, WA's booming resources industry.

So you rushed out together and bought as many entry level properties as your mortgage broker would allow so that you could rent them out to the first time buyers you had just priced out of the market.

And for a couple of years you were winning. Rents went up, prices went up.

An early and wealthy retirement beckoned.

Fast forward to today and you have to wonder who would be fooled by a property seminar at the Raffles this evening?

How do you sell the idea of borrowing half a million bucks to enter the most saturated market in Australia?

Who is going to buy a property to rent out in Perth tomorrow?

Probably nobody Matey.

So what happens to any commodity, good or service when speculative buyers stop buying?

They return to their real utility value.

Want to buy a Tulip for a $1000 Matey?


I said sorry to my Daughter as I handed her the tickets for this years Glastonbury festival along with a return flight and pre paid rental car from Heathrow.

I did send her economy though and it was an entry level hire car, but she has forgiven me.
Jimbo, you are a late comer to the party. This is the 3rd slow market I have lived in, nation wide plus multiple booms or strongly growing markets. I have invested in 4 different states over a 18 year period.

If you think that has all happened in the past 3-4 years you are thicker then most.

Only a fool sell his house on a gable that price will crash, only to wait 2 and half years later while renting that entire time and still no crash. Then goes and makes bets on shares and currency plays which are currently not doing so well. Oh hang on you always manage to sell just in time and post here after the fact.



http://mike-globaleconomy.blogspot.com.au/
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Rastus2
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Rufus
6 Sep 2016, 05:57 PM
It would appear that suggestions that stock on market is lower at the moment are correct.
Posted Image

Sydney has fewer listings than Brisbane ?

Really ?
Shadow - Defrauded his Bank ? 2015 I have 9 different loans and my bank had no idea which ones were personal and which were investment. They had half of them classed incorrectly. When this change came in they asked me to tell them if any personal loans were incorrectly classed as investment, which I did, and they switched them to personal for the lower rate. They also had a couple of investment loans incorrectly classed as personal. They didn't ask me about those. So they stay on the lower rate too. Worked out pretty well. :)
Shadow - 2008 Sydney Median House Price 1.25M by 2014-2015

Shadow : I think this boom has already begun in several cities. My prediction :
Peak of boom: 2014-2015. Sydney Median Price: $1,250,000 Bottom of bust: 2017-2018. Sydney Median Price: $1,100,000

Shadow's Original 2010 House Boom and Crash prediction http://s836.photobucket.com/user/rastus22/media/shady-orig-2010-chart.png.html?sort=3&o=0

Shadow's attempt to edit his 2010 chart in 2015 and replace it with one that does not show a crash in 2013 http://s836.photobucket.com/user/rastus22/media/Screen%20Shot%202015-06-06%20at%207.12.52%20pm_1.png.html
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Rufus
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Rastus2
6 Sep 2016, 07:29 PM

Sydney has fewer listings than Brisbane ?

Really ?
Yes - it's been that way for many years. Brisbane is maybe a shade oversupplied, but not to the point of crashing the market, it's balanced reasonably well. But Sydney is way undersupplied, hence the high house prices.

That's why claims of a crash in the Sydney market are so laughable. Maybe the supply boom in apartments will alleviate that, but probably it will just take the heat out for a couple of years.
Take risks - if you win you will become wealthy, if you lose you will become wise
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Terry
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Rufus
6 Sep 2016, 08:07 PM
Yes - it's been that way for many years. Brisbane is maybe a shade oversupplied, but not to the point of crashing the market, it's balanced reasonably well. But Sydney is way undersupplied, hence the high house prices.

That's why claims of a crash in the Sydney market are so laughable. Maybe the supply boom in apartments will alleviate that, but probably it will just take the heat out for a couple of years.
So how do you calculate that Sydney is "under-supplied"? Because Brisbane has more houses for sale? That would probably mean that Melbourne is massively oversupplied. Without a benchmark, how can you conclude that under-supply will prevent a crash in Sydney?
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Rufus
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Terry
6 Sep 2016, 08:23 PM
So how do you calculate that Sydney is "under-supplied"? Because Brisbane has more houses for sale? That would probably mean that Melbourne is massively oversupplied. Without a benchmark, how can you conclude that under-supply will prevent a crash in Sydney?
No Melbourne is a little under supplied, but the stock coming might tip Melbourne into oversupply for a time.
It's difficult to judge that with precision, but everyone here looking at that chart will get that, except for you.
Take risks - if you win you will become wealthy, if you lose you will become wise
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Terry
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Rufus
6 Sep 2016, 08:26 PM
No Melbourne is a little under supplied, but the stock coming might tip Melbourne into oversupply for a time.
It's difficult to judge that with precision, but everyone here looking at that chart will get that, except for you.
So there is no benchmark. Just a chart. Is there any point showing the number of listings on the y-axis then? If it's all based on feelings relative to Brisbane, how can you ascertain there will be no crash?
Edited by Terry, 6 Sep 2016, 08:56 PM.
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Matthew
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Terry
6 Sep 2016, 08:54 PM
So there is no benchmark.
I didn't think you could be this dumb then you go prove me wrong.
My only hope for my three boys is that they turn out nothing at all like Chris.
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Jimbo
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Mike
6 Sep 2016, 06:36 PM
Only a fool sell his house on a gable that price will crash, only to wait 2 and half years later while renting that entire time and still no crash. Then goes and makes bets on shares and currency plays which are currently not doing so well. Oh hang on you always manage to sell just in time and post here after the fact.


I sold my house in 2014 because I could sell my house. I didn't want to be in a position where I couldn't sell my house.

Sold at the peak and chucked the lot into the USD or USD denominated assets. Said so at the time.

Made an absolute fortune.

I'm about $10,000 down (on paper) on one trade only, but that is dribble in the ocean compared to my gains.

Meanwhile, your Port Coogee place is tanking Mikey.




Rufus
6 Sep 2016, 05:57 PM
It would appear that suggestions that stock on market is lower at the moment are correct.
I note that Perth has around 22,500 listings according to SQM.

So a fair way to go until we reach Mateys balanced market of 12,000.
Edited by Jimbo, 7 Sep 2016, 03:35 AM.
Matthew, 30 Jan 2016, 09:21 AM Your simplistic view is so flawed it is not worth debating. The current oversupply will be swallowed in 12 months. By the time dumb shits like you realise this prices will already be :?: rising.
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newjez
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Rufus
6 Sep 2016, 05:57 PM
It would appear that suggestions that stock on market is lower at the moment are correct.
Posted Image
That means f*** all to a colour blind person.
Jimbo
7 Sep 2016, 03:31 AM
I sold my house in 2014 because I could sell my house. I didn't want to be in a position where I couldn't sell my house.

Sold at the peak and chucked the lot into the USD or USD denominated assets. Said so at the time.

Made an absolute fortune.

I'm about $10,000 down (on paper) on one trade only, but that is dribble in the ocean compared to my gains.

Meanwhile, your Port Coogee place is tanking Mikey.





I note that Perth has around 22,500 listings according to SQM.

So a fair way to go until we reach Mateys balanced market of 12,000.
Lemons and limes.

I think you need to use reiwa data to be consistent. About 2000 over, with a lot of rentals.
Edited by newjez, 7 Sep 2016, 05:47 AM.
Whenever you have an argument with someone, there comes a moment where you must ask yourself, whatever your political persuasion, 'am I the Nazi?'
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Rufus
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Matthew
6 Sep 2016, 11:20 PM
I didn't think you could be this dumb then you go prove me wrong.
An extraordinary ability to look past basic facts and completely miss the obvious without ever realising the error.

Edited by Rufus, 7 Sep 2016, 09:28 AM.
Take risks - if you win you will become wealthy, if you lose you will become wise
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