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Perth Housing stock continues to fall
Topic Started: 12 Aug 2016, 02:42 PM (50,704 Views)
hidflect
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So we're all agreed, then. Perth property prices to keep falling for the next 6-12 months? There. Was that so hard?

But seriously. The 4 "D"s of property devaluation haven't even begun hitting home yet. Debt, Divorce, Departure, Death. OK, despite the sentiment on some posts, Death might not be a big factor but you can be sure the other 3 are a shoe drop away. I just loaned $2000 to a mate of mine going through Debt and Divorce. His PPOR and investment apartment are both underwater. Turning them over to the bank will be interesting but I guess rentals volume will decrease by 2. Simply put: there's no new money coming in, ladies and gentlemen. And rental returns are not matching mortgage outgoings. Ergo: a fracking bloodbath unless someone knows of a big, new CAPEX project starting up in the next 6 months.
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Foxy
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Zero is coming...

Jimbo
5 Sep 2016, 01:14 AM
When you Skammy and Mikey attended the property seminar in 2012, no doubt you were seduced by the very low vacancy rate and high demand for rental properties. You would have been shown graphs of Perths growing population, WA's booming resources industry.

So you rushed out together and bought as many entry level properties as your mortgage broker would allow so that you could rent them out to the first time buyers you had just priced out of the market.

And for a couple of years you were winning. Rents went up, prices went up.

An early and wealthy retirement beckoned.

Fast forward to today and you have to wonder who would be fooled by a property seminar at the Raffles this evening?

How do you sell the idea of borrowing half a million bucks to enter the most saturated market in Australia?

Who is going to buy a property to rent out in Perth tomorrow?

Probably nobody Matey.

So what happens to any commodity, good or service when speculative buyers stop buying?

They return to their real utility value.

Want to buy a Tulip for a $1000 Matey?


I said sorry to my Daughter as I handed her the tickets for this years Glastonbury festival along with a return flight and pre paid rental car from Heathrow.

I did send her economy though and it was an entry level hire car, but she has forgiven me.
Well done.

http://www.afr.com/content/dam/images/g/n/2/1/u/8/image.imgtype.afrArticleInline.620x0.png/1456285515560.png
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Rastus2
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hidflect
5 Sep 2016, 05:40 AM
So we're all agreed, then. Perth property prices to keep falling for the next 6-12 months? There. Was that so hard?

But seriously. The 4 "D"s of property devaluation haven't even begun hitting home yet. Debt, Divorce, Departure, Death. OK, despite the sentiment on some posts, Death might not be a big factor but you can be sure the other 3 are a shoe drop away. I just loaned $2000 to a mate of mine going through Debt and Divorce. His PPOR and investment apartment are both underwater. Turning them over to the bank will be interesting but I guess rentals volume will decrease by 2. Simply put: there's no new money coming in, ladies and gentlemen. And rental returns are not matching mortgage outgoings. Ergo: a fracking bloodbath unless someone knows of a big, new CAPEX project starting up in the next 6 months.

IMHO, 6 Months, then recovery
Shadow - Defrauded his Bank ? 2015 I have 9 different loans and my bank had no idea which ones were personal and which were investment. They had half of them classed incorrectly. When this change came in they asked me to tell them if any personal loans were incorrectly classed as investment, which I did, and they switched them to personal for the lower rate. They also had a couple of investment loans incorrectly classed as personal. They didn't ask me about those. So they stay on the lower rate too. Worked out pretty well. :)
Shadow - 2008 Sydney Median House Price 1.25M by 2014-2015

Shadow : I think this boom has already begun in several cities. My prediction :
Peak of boom: 2014-2015. Sydney Median Price: $1,250,000 Bottom of bust: 2017-2018. Sydney Median Price: $1,100,000

Shadow's Original 2010 House Boom and Crash prediction http://s836.photobucket.com/user/rastus22/media/shady-orig-2010-chart.png.html?sort=3&o=0

Shadow's attempt to edit his 2010 chart in 2015 and replace it with one that does not show a crash in 2013 http://s836.photobucket.com/user/rastus22/media/Screen%20Shot%202015-06-06%20at%207.12.52%20pm_1.png.html
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Foxy
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Zero is coming...

hidflect
5 Sep 2016, 05:40 AM
So we're all agreed, then. Perth property prices to keep falling for the next 6-12 months? There. Was that so hard?

But seriously. The 4 "D"s of property devaluation haven't even begun hitting home yet. Debt, Divorce, Departure, Death. OK, despite the sentiment on some posts, Death might not be a big factor but you can be sure the other 3 are a shoe drop away. I just loaned $2000 to a mate of mine going through Debt and Divorce. His PPOR and investment apartment are both underwater. Turning them over to the bank will be interesting but I guess rentals volume will decrease by 2. Simply put: there's no new money coming in, ladies and gentlemen. And rental returns are not matching mortgage outgoings. Ergo: a fracking bloodbath unless someone knows of a big, new CAPEX project starting up in the next 6 months.
I was driving past Hyde Park on my way home from croquet yesterday, prime inner city realestate.

I know someone that lives there, beautiful house.

I saw a few home owners attending to thier houses, they like us all are getting old, people in my age group are talking about downsizing.

I wonder, who will buy all the old boomers houses??

To whom will we sell??

Better hope some very rich Chinese come to Perth...

Peter




And again i will say, about $400,000 is the cost of building a house or unit in Australia.

The rest my friends is eye wash...
http://www.realestate.com.au/property-new+home+design-vic-8003159
http://www.realestate.com.au/property-new+home+design-wa-8005271
http://www.realestate.com.au/property-new+home+design-nsw-8013610

So at say $400,000 in to a home, @ 4% interest, that is $16,000 per year, or $310.00 per week.

The rest is eye wash, so
Jimbo
5 Sep 2016, 12:17 AM
Not forgetting the 1000's of returning cashed up FIFO's sleeping on their mates sofa.
I wonder does Mathew have a mortgage??

Edited by Foxy, 5 Sep 2016, 09:12 AM.
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Matthew
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Jimbo
5 Sep 2016, 01:29 AM
If you really did start out 20 years ago, you wouldn't be shitting your pants today.
I am not shitting my pants today.

Quote:
 
You wouldn't be trying to talk up the market by posting unevidenced, easily debunked rubbish numbers.
I am not talking up the market. I expect prices to continue to soften as long as the market is oversupplied.

Quote:
 
I believe that you committed to joining the Ponzi in 2012 (same as Mike and Skammy) and, realising the risk you were taking, decided to be proactive and talk the market up until you were in front.
All incorrect. I believe you want to believe that because the notion that people can make money from property by holding rather than selling, and accumulate property over long periods of time goes against everything you need to believe from your meth lab rental that you are in because of your own magpie single shiny object "investment" technique

You are an idiot.


newjez
5 Sep 2016, 05:04 AM
It assumes property is just a function of supply and demand. There probably is a loose relationship. But to make it a rule, without backing it up with data is nonsense.

They didn't attend. They hosted it.


So you claim there is an at best loose relationship between housing supply and demand?

So in 2013 when there were 8,000 units of housing on the market and prices increased 15%, that was the result of a "loose" relationship? And in 2012 when rental vacancies were 1.6% and rents increased $100 per week that was the result of a "loose" relationship?

And in 2014 as prices hit their highest point with listings still under 12,000, that is also because of this "loose" relationship?

And today with 14,000 units of housing for sale and a vacancy rate of 6.5% and both prices for sale and rent falling that is the result of a "loose" relationship between supply and demand?

You are off your head or a moron.

Quote:
 
Your assumption that a fall in supply is due to an increase in sales is incorrect. There has been no increase in sales.
Where have I ever made that assumption? I know it is incorrect. Don't attribute your thoughts to me.

Quote:
 
If there is a shortage in brown bread, but an oversupply of white, the price of brown bread will not rise.

Just because you have a sellers strike, it doesn't mean prices will be driven up.

It just means buyers will be frustrated as well.

The next stage will either be an improvement in the economy, or sellers acceptance of reality.
If all the white bread is stale and the few loaves of brown bread are fresh that day you can guarantee that the price of brown bread will rise. Equally if the houses for sale are shitholes in shit suburbs a shitload of km's from jobs and the CBD you can also guarantee that the select houses in better suburbs will increase in value.

Quote:
 
From 12000, prices could rise or fall. This will become obvious when/if we hit 12000.
If? FFS this is one of your more stupid posts and you make plenty of them
Edited by Matthew, 5 Sep 2016, 11:07 AM.
My only hope for my three boys is that they turn out nothing at all like Chris.
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Terry
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Matthew
5 Sep 2016, 09:57 AM


If? FFS this is one of your more stupid posts and you make plenty of them
I'm interested in your maths Uncle Matty.
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Trollie
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hidflect
5 Sep 2016, 05:40 AM
And rental returns are not matching mortgage outgoings.
They don't need to at year 1 prices.

Are you really still making that rookie mistake?
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Blondie girl
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Matthew
5 Sep 2016, 09:57 AM


I expect prices to continue to soften as long as the market is oversupplied.


Ditto.

Soften-------bottom---- then price increase by the time most miss the timing just before stuff increases.

You mentioned April, I think later by next EOFY.
foxbat
5 Sep 2016, 09:03 AM
I was driving past Hyde Park on my way home from croquet yesterday, prime inner city realestate.

Instead of using the sauna, maybe try and skinny dip in one of the lakes in Hyde Park?
Edited by Blondie girl, 5 Sep 2016, 02:56 PM.
Newjerk? can you try harder than dig up another person's blog. My first promo was with Billabong and my name in English is modified with a T, am Perth born but also lived in Sydney to make my $$
It's Absolutely Fabulous if it includes brilliant locations, & high calibre tenants..what more does one want? Understand the power of the two "P"" or be financially challenged
Even better when there is family who are property mad and one is born in some entitlements.....Understand that beautiful women are the exhibitionists we crave attention, whilst hot blooded men are the voyeurs ... A stunning woman can command and takes pleasure in being noticed. Seems not too many understand what it means to hold and own props and get threatened by those who do.
Banks are considered to be law abiding and & rather boring places yeah not true . A bank balance sheet will show capital is dwarfed by their liabilities this means when a portions of loans is falling its problems for the bank.
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Foxy
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Zero is coming...

Terry
5 Sep 2016, 12:33 PM
I'm interested in your maths Uncle Matty.
Here is a simple treatment for Perth and Pilbara bulls wondering where it all went so wrong....

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O913fmUGgt0
Blondie girl
5 Sep 2016, 02:47 PM
Ditto.

Soften-------bottom---- then price increase by the time most miss the timing just before stuff increases.

You mentioned April, I think later by next EOFY.

Instead of using the sauna, maybe try and skinny dip in one of the lakes in Hyde Park?
Blondie, you just would stake the pond out waiting to catch a glimpse of me doing that.


Now Blondie, full updates on the Perth residential market, please...


Edited by Foxy, 5 Sep 2016, 06:57 PM.
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Rufus
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It would appear that suggestions that stock on market is lower at the moment are correct.
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Edited by Rufus, 6 Sep 2016, 05:58 PM.
Take risks - if you win you will become wealthy, if you lose you will become wise
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