So we're all agreed, then. Perth property prices to keep falling for the next 6-12 months? There. Was that so hard?
But seriously. The 4 "D"s of property devaluation haven't even begun hitting home yet. Debt, Divorce, Departure, Death. OK, despite the sentiment on some posts, Death might not be a big factor but you can be sure the other 3 are a shoe drop away. I just loaned $2000 to a mate of mine going through Debt and Divorce. His PPOR and investment apartment are both underwater. Turning them over to the bank will be interesting but I guess rentals volume will decrease by 2. Simply put: there's no new money coming in, ladies and gentlemen. And rental returns are not matching mortgage outgoings. Ergo: a fracking bloodbath unless someone knows of a big, new CAPEX project starting up in the next 6 months.
When you Skammy and Mikey attended the property seminar in 2012, no doubt you were seduced by the very low vacancy rate and high demand for rental properties. You would have been shown graphs of Perths growing population, WA's booming resources industry.
So you rushed out together and bought as many entry level properties as your mortgage broker would allow so that you could rent them out to the first time buyers you had just priced out of the market.
And for a couple of years you were winning. Rents went up, prices went up.
An early and wealthy retirement beckoned.
Fast forward to today and you have to wonder who would be fooled by a property seminar at the Raffles this evening?
How do you sell the idea of borrowing half a million bucks to enter the most saturated market in Australia?
Who is going to buy a property to rent out in Perth tomorrow?
Probably nobody Matey.
So what happens to any commodity, good or service when speculative buyers stop buying?
They return to their real utility value.
Want to buy a Tulip for a $1000 Matey? I said sorry to my Daughter as I handed her the tickets for this years Glastonbury festival along with a return flight and pre paid rental car from Heathrow.
I did send her economy though and it was an entry level hire car, but she has forgiven me.
So we're all agreed, then. Perth property prices to keep falling for the next 6-12 months? There. Was that so hard?
But seriously. The 4 "D"s of property devaluation haven't even begun hitting home yet. Debt, Divorce, Departure, Death. OK, despite the sentiment on some posts, Death might not be a big factor but you can be sure the other 3 are a shoe drop away. I just loaned $2000 to a mate of mine going through Debt and Divorce. His PPOR and investment apartment are both underwater. Turning them over to the bank will be interesting but I guess rentals volume will decrease by 2. Simply put: there's no new money coming in, ladies and gentlemen. And rental returns are not matching mortgage outgoings. Ergo: a fracking bloodbath unless someone knows of a big, new CAPEX project starting up in the next 6 months.
So we're all agreed, then. Perth property prices to keep falling for the next 6-12 months? There. Was that so hard?
But seriously. The 4 "D"s of property devaluation haven't even begun hitting home yet. Debt, Divorce, Departure, Death. OK, despite the sentiment on some posts, Death might not be a big factor but you can be sure the other 3 are a shoe drop away. I just loaned $2000 to a mate of mine going through Debt and Divorce. His PPOR and investment apartment are both underwater. Turning them over to the bank will be interesting but I guess rentals volume will decrease by 2. Simply put: there's no new money coming in, ladies and gentlemen. And rental returns are not matching mortgage outgoings. Ergo: a fracking bloodbath unless someone knows of a big, new CAPEX project starting up in the next 6 months.
I was driving past Hyde Park on my way home from croquet yesterday, prime inner city realestate.
I know someone that lives there, beautiful house.
I saw a few home owners attending to thier houses, they like us all are getting old, people in my age group are talking about downsizing.
I wonder, who will buy all the old boomers houses??
To whom will we sell??
Better hope some very rich Chinese come to Perth...
Peter
And again i will say, about $400,000 is the cost of building a house or unit in Australia.
If you really did start out 20 years ago, you wouldn't be shitting your pants today.
I am not shitting my pants today.
Quote:
You wouldn't be trying to talk up the market by posting unevidenced, easily debunked rubbish numbers.
I am not talking up the market. I expect prices to continue to soften as long as the market is oversupplied.
Quote:
I believe that you committed to joining the Ponzi in 2012 (same as Mike and Skammy) and, realising the risk you were taking, decided to be proactive and talk the market up until you were in front.
All incorrect. I believe you want to believe that because the notion that people can make money from property by holding rather than selling, and accumulate property over long periods of time goes against everything you need to believe from your meth lab rental that you are in because of your own magpie single shiny object "investment" technique
You are an idiot.
newjez
5 Sep 2016, 05:04 AM
It assumes property is just a function of supply and demand. There probably is a loose relationship. But to make it a rule, without backing it up with data is nonsense. They didn't attend. They hosted it.
So you claim there is an at best loose relationship between housing supply and demand?
So in 2013 when there were 8,000 units of housing on the market and prices increased 15%, that was the result of a "loose" relationship? And in 2012 when rental vacancies were 1.6% and rents increased $100 per week that was the result of a "loose" relationship?
And in 2014 as prices hit their highest point with listings still under 12,000, that is also because of this "loose" relationship?
And today with 14,000 units of housing for sale and a vacancy rate of 6.5% and both prices for sale and rent falling that is the result of a "loose" relationship between supply and demand?
You are off your head or a moron.
Quote:
Your assumption that a fall in supply is due to an increase in sales is incorrect. There has been no increase in sales.
Where have I ever made that assumption? I know it is incorrect. Don't attribute your thoughts to me.
Quote:
If there is a shortage in brown bread, but an oversupply of white, the price of brown bread will not rise.
Just because you have a sellers strike, it doesn't mean prices will be driven up.
It just means buyers will be frustrated as well.
The next stage will either be an improvement in the economy, or sellers acceptance of reality.
If all the white bread is stale and the few loaves of brown bread are fresh that day you can guarantee that the price of brown bread will rise. Equally if the houses for sale are shitholes in shit suburbs a shitload of km's from jobs and the CBD you can also guarantee that the select houses in better suburbs will increase in value.
Quote:
From 12000, prices could rise or fall. This will become obvious when/if we hit 12000.
If? FFS this is one of your more stupid posts and you make plenty of them
Newjerk? can you try harder than dig up another person's blog. My first promo was with Billabong and my name in English is modified with a T, am Perth born but also lived in Sydney to make my $$ It's Absolutely Fabulous if it includes brilliant locations, & high calibre tenants..what more does one want? Understand the power of the two "P"" or be financially challenged Even better when there is family who are property mad and one is born in some entitlements.....Understand that beautiful women are the exhibitionists we crave attention, whilst hot blooded men are the voyeurs ... A stunning woman can command and takes pleasure in being noticed. Seems not too many understand what it means to hold and own props and get threatened by those who do. Banks are considered to be law abiding and & rather boring places yeah not true . A bank balance sheet will show capital is dwarfed by their liabilities this means when a portions of loans is falling its problems for the bank.
Australian Property Forum is an economics and finance forum dedicated to discussion of Australian and global real estate markets and macroeconomics, including house prices, housing affordability, and the likelihood of a property crash. Is there an Australian housing bubble? Will house prices crash, boom or stagnate? Is the Australian property market a pyramid scheme or Ponzi scheme? Can house prices really rise forever? These are the questions we address on Australian Property Forum, the premier real estate site for property bears, bulls, investors, and speculators. Members may also discuss matters related to finance, modern monetary theory (MMT), debt deflation, cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin Ethereum and Ripple, property investing, landlords, tenants, debt consolidation, reverse home equity loans, the housing shortage, negative gearing, capital gains tax, land tax and macro prudential regulation.
Forum Rules:
The main forum may be used to discuss property, politics, economics and finance, precious metals, crypto currency, debt management, generational divides, climate change, sustainability, alternative energy, environmental topics, human rights or social justice issues, and other topics on a case by case basis. Topics unsuitable for the main forum may be discussed in the lounge. You agree you won't use this forum to post material that is illegal, private, defamatory, pornographic, excessively abusive or profane, threatening, or invasive of another forum member's privacy. Don't post NSFW content. Racist or ethnic slurs and homophobic comments aren't tolerated. Accusing forum members of serious crimes is not permitted. Accusations, attacks, abuse or threats, litigious or otherwise, directed against the forum or forum administrators aren't tolerated and will result in immediate suspension of your account for a number of days depending on the severity of the attack. No spamming or advertising in the main forum. Spamming includes repeating the same message over and over again within a short period of time. Don't post ALL CAPS thread titles. The Advertising and Promotion Subforum may be used to promote your Australian property related business or service. Active members of the forum who contribute regularly to main forum discussions may also include a link to their product or service in their signature block. Members are limited to one actively posting account each. A secondary account may be used solely for the purpose of maintaining a blog as long as that account no longer posts in threads. Any member who believes another member has violated these rules may report the offending post using the report button.
Australian Property Forum complies with ASIC Regulatory Guide 162 regarding Internet Discussion Sites. Australian Property Forum is not a provider of financial advice. Australian Property Forum does not in any way endorse the views and opinions of its members, nor does it vouch for for the accuracy or authenticity of their posts. It is not permitted for any Australian Property Forum member to post in the role of a licensed financial advisor or to post as the representative of a financial advisor. It is not permitted for Australian Property Forum members to ask for or offer specific buy, sell or hold recommendations on particular stocks, as a response to a request of this nature may be considered the provision of financial advice.
Views expressed on this forum are not representative of the forum owners. The forum owners are not liable or responsible for comments posted. Information posted does not constitute financial or legal advice. The forum owners accept no liability for information posted, nor for consequences of actions taken on the basis of that information. By visiting or using this forum, members and guests agree to be bound by the Zetaboards Terms of Use.
This site may contain copyright material (i.e. attributed snippets from online news reports), the use of which has not always been specifically authorized by the copyright owner. Such content is posted to advance understanding of environmental, political, human rights, economic, democratic, scientific, and social justice issues. This constitutes 'fair use' of such copyright material as provided for in section 107 of US Copyright Law. In accordance with Title 17 U.S.C. Section 107, the material on this site is distributed for research and educational purposes only. If you wish to use this material for purposes that go beyond 'fair use', you must obtain permission from the copyright owner. Such material is credited to the true owner or licensee. We will remove from the forum any such material upon the request of the owners of the copyright of said material, as we claim no credit for such material.
Privacy Policy: Australian Property Forum uses third party advertising companies to serve ads when you visit our site. These third party advertising companies may collect and use information about your visits to Australian Property Forum as well as other web sites in order to provide advertisements about goods and services of interest to you. If you would like more information about this practice and to know your choices about not having this information used by these companies, click here: Google Advertising Privacy FAQ
Australian Property Forum is hosted by Zetaboards. Please refer also to the Zetaboards Privacy Policy