I have posted several links to different websites referring to 12,000 listings as the Perth market equilibrium. You are yet to post a single link to a differing opinion.
Pull your f ucking head in c'unt
The 12,000 figure is f***ing nonsense.
Just because a load of people who sell houses for living say so does not make it so.
Concede the point you daft mad man.
Property acquisition as a topic was almost a national obsession. You couldn't even call it speculation as the buyers all presumed the price of property could only go up. That’s why we use the word obsession. Ordinary people were buying properties for their young children who had not even left school assuming they would not be able to afford property of their own when they left college- Klaus Regling on Ireland. Sound familiar?
The evidence of nearly 40 cycles in house prices for 17 OECD economies since 1970 shows that real house prices typically give up about 70 per cent of their rise in the subsequent fall, and that these falls occur slowly. Morgan Kelly:On the Likely Extent of Falls in Irish House Prices, 2007
Assuming it is correct and house prices rise when listings hit 11,999, the equilibrium equation has two parts with the second being a vacancy rate of 3%.
There would need to be a reduction in rental vacancies of 6075 to create Mateys "balanced market".
Of course, Matey avoids this one like the proverbial.
Matthew, 30 Jan 2016, 09:21 AM Your simplistic view is so flawed it is not worth debating. The current oversupply will be swallowed in 12 months. By the time dumb shits like you realise this prices will already be rising.
Assuming it is correct and house prices rise when listings hit 11,999, the equilibrium equation has two parts with the second being a vacancy rate of 3%.
There would need to be a reduction in rental vacancies of 6075 to create Mateys "balanced market".
Of course, Matey avoids this one like the proverbial.
They all do.
I will take as read that Matty knows that the best measure of housing demand is the private rental market.
Unless he is a tent city man too?
Property acquisition as a topic was almost a national obsession. You couldn't even call it speculation as the buyers all presumed the price of property could only go up. That’s why we use the word obsession. Ordinary people were buying properties for their young children who had not even left school assuming they would not be able to afford property of their own when they left college- Klaus Regling on Ireland. Sound familiar?
The evidence of nearly 40 cycles in house prices for 17 OECD economies since 1970 shows that real house prices typically give up about 70 per cent of their rise in the subsequent fall, and that these falls occur slowly. Morgan Kelly:On the Likely Extent of Falls in Irish House Prices, 2007
Not forgetting the 1000's of returning cashed up FIFO's sleeping on their mates sofa.
Matthew, 30 Jan 2016, 09:21 AM Your simplistic view is so flawed it is not worth debating. The current oversupply will be swallowed in 12 months. By the time dumb shits like you realise this prices will already be rising.
a) that there is no equilibrium in the market b) that 12,000 is not the equilibrium despite offering no counter position c) that 12,000 is too high a number
If it is a) you are the dumbest f***er to ever own a keyboard. If it is b) or c) please offer a link to a credible source with the number you believe.
Jimbo
4 Sep 2016, 11:54 PM
Assuming it is correct and house prices rise when listings hit 11,999, the equilibrium equation has two parts with the second being a vacancy rate of 3%.
There would need to be a reduction in rental vacancies of 6075 to create Mateys "balanced market".
Of course, Matey avoids this one like the proverbial.
I suggest you revisit Perth Circa 2011 - 2014. I know you don't want to, but I suggest you do.
Veritas
4 Sep 2016, 11:56 PM
I will take as read that Matty knows that the best measure of housing demand is the private rental market.
Why exactly would the smallest part of the market be the best measure of housing demand?
Jimbo
4 Sep 2016, 10:40 PM
If you have posted a link, I can't find it.
I suggest you reread my few posts in the past 2 weeks. Stop being a c.untHere is the thing Veritarsehole and Dimshit - you are looking for the answer you want to make you happy.
We know about 2.5 people live in each dwelling Australia wide.
We know that people prefer houses to sand dunes, park benches and cars.
We know the majority of Australians prefer to live in the house they own.
You can play Pokehouse Crash Bandicoot through Warnbro and Nollarmara all you want, but in the real world the oversupply is eroding, prices are stabilising and you two dumb as f*** hillbillies will be renting until you are in the grave because the price will never be right and you want to win.
Dimshit it is Fathers Day. Today you looked your kids in the eye. I hope you said sorry.
Why exactly would the smallest part of the market be the best measure of housing demand?
When you Skammy and Mikey attended the property seminar in 2012, no doubt you were seduced by the very low vacancy rate and high demand for rental properties. You would have been shown graphs of Perths growing population, WA's booming resources industry.
So you rushed out together and bought as many entry level properties as your mortgage broker would allow so that you could rent them out to the first time buyers you had just priced out of the market.
And for a couple of years you were winning. Rents went up, prices went up.
An early and wealthy retirement beckoned.
Fast forward to today and you have to wonder who would be fooled by a property seminar at the Raffles this evening?
How do you sell the idea of borrowing half a million bucks to enter the most saturated market in Australia?
Who is going to buy a property to rent out in Perth tomorrow?
Probably nobody Matey.
So what happens to any commodity, good or service when speculative buyers stop buying?
They return to their real utility value.
Want to buy a Tulip for a $1000 Matey?
Matthew
5 Sep 2016, 12:46 AM
Dimshit it is Fathers Day. Today you looked your kids in the eye. I hope you said sorry.
I said sorry to my Daughter as I handed her the tickets for this years Glastonbury festival along with a return flight and pre paid rental car from Heathrow.
I did send her economy though and it was an entry level hire car, but she has forgiven me.
Matthew, 30 Jan 2016, 09:21 AM Your simplistic view is so flawed it is not worth debating. The current oversupply will be swallowed in 12 months. By the time dumb shits like you realise this prices will already be rising.
When you Skammy and Mikey attended the property seminar in 2012, no doubt you were seduced by the very low vacancy rate and high demand for rental properties. You would have been shown graphs of Perths growing population, WA's booming resources industry.
Never attended a property seminar in my life.
Quote:
So you rushed out together and bought as many entry level properties as your mortgage broker would allow so that you could rent them out to the first time buyers you had just priced out of the market.
My first 2 investment properties were houses I lived in before trading up
Quote:
Blah blah blah
Drop the whimsical narrative dipshit. You are worse than the absolute worst of property spruikers. You are a 24/7 off the charts f***ed in the head astroturfer with no idea what you are talking about.
As I have said before Dimshit my property successes were absolutely overnight. Just 20 years in the making.
I get your issue though. Mid 50's with teenagers and no super. You have to take risks so you sell your shithole in Warnbro and go USD - smart play. Then you think you are smarter than you really are and double down on Brexit. f*** it royally and rent until you die leaving your kids funeral costs and your surname that they are ashamed of.
That is the problem with being a magpie Dim.
Again you looked your kids in the eye today - I hope you apologised.
As I have said before Dimshit my property successes were absolutely overnight. Just 20 years in the making.
You started defending your position with your lunatic blog and Perth Now spam sessions in 2012.
If you really did start out 20 years ago, you wouldn't be shitting your pants today.
You wouldn't be trying to talk up the market by posting unevidenced, easily debunked rubbish numbers.
I believe that you committed to joining the Ponzi in 2012 (same as Mike and Skammy) and, realising the risk you were taking, decided to be proactive and talk the market up until you were in front.
It's what people like you do when they have all of their skin in one game.
Matthew, 30 Jan 2016, 09:21 AM Your simplistic view is so flawed it is not worth debating. The current oversupply will be swallowed in 12 months. By the time dumb shits like you realise this prices will already be rising.
Maybe you thought you'd posted a link when you hadn't?
It wouldn't be hard to post it again would it Matey?
Especially as there are apparently several different websites you can point to.
It's post 166# jimbo.
Keep up, I've already been through this with him.
It's not a tipping point. It's just the long term average.
It assumes property is just a function of supply and demand. There probably is a loose relationship. But to make it a rule, without backing it up with data is nonsense.
Jimbo
5 Sep 2016, 01:14 AM
When you Skammy and Mikey attended the property seminar in 2012, no doubt you were seduced by the very low vacancy rate and high demand for rental properties. You would have been shown graphs of Perths growing population, WA's booming resources industry.
So you rushed out together and bought as many entry level properties as your mortgage broker would allow so that you could rent them out to the first time buyers you had just priced out of the market.
And for a couple of years you were winning. Rents went up, prices went up.
An early and wealthy retirement beckoned.
Fast forward to today and you have to wonder who would be fooled by a property seminar at the Raffles this evening?
How do you sell the idea of borrowing half a million bucks to enter the most saturated market in Australia?
Who is going to buy a property to rent out in Perth tomorrow?
Probably nobody Matey.
So what happens to any commodity, good or service when speculative buyers stop buying?
They return to their real utility value.
Want to buy a Tulip for a $1000 Matey? I said sorry to my Daughter as I handed her the tickets for this years Glastonbury festival along with a return flight and pre paid rental car from Heathrow.
I did send her economy though and it was an entry level hire car, but she has forgiven me.
They didn't attend. They hosted it.
Matthew
5 Sep 2016, 12:46 AM
So what are you saying knobrubber?
a) that there is no equilibrium in the market b) that 12,000 is not the equilibrium despite offering no counter position c) that 12,000 is too high a number
If it is a) you are the dumbest f***er to ever own a keyboard. If it is b) or c) please offer a link to a credible source with the number you believe. I suggest you revisit Perth Circa 2011 - 2014. I know you don't want to, but I suggest you do.
Why exactly would the smallest part of the market be the best measure of housing demand? I suggest you reread my few posts in the past 2 weeks. Stop being a c.untHere is the thing Veritarsehole and Dimshit - you are looking for the answer you want to make you happy.
We know about 2.5 people live in each dwelling Australia wide.
We know that people prefer houses to sand dunes, park benches and cars.
We know the majority of Australians prefer to live in the house they own.
You can play Pokehouse Crash Bandicoot through Warnbro and Nollarmara all you want, but in the real world the oversupply is eroding, prices are stabilising and you two dumb as f*** hillbillies will be renting until you are in the grave because the price will never be right and you want to win.
Dimshit it is Fathers Day. Today you looked your kids in the eye. I hope you said sorry.
The idea of a fixed point equilibrium of supply assumes constant demand, which is unlikely.
Your assumption that a fall in supply is due to an increase in sales is incorrect. There has been no increase in sales.
I would say that the current drop in supply is due to frustration with the market.
Thus as you approach 12000, there will be no uptrend.
Especially so if rentals remain high.
If there is a shortage in brown bread, but an oversupply of white, the price of brown bread will not rise.
Just because you have a sellers strike, it doesn't mean prices will be driven up.
It just means buyers will be frustrated as well.
The next stage will either be an improvement in the economy, or sellers acceptance of reality.
From 12000, prices could rise or fall. This will become obvious when/if we hit 12000.
Australian Property Forum is an economics and finance forum dedicated to discussion of Australian and global real estate markets and macroeconomics, including house prices, housing affordability, and the likelihood of a property crash. Is there an Australian housing bubble? Will house prices crash, boom or stagnate? Is the Australian property market a pyramid scheme or Ponzi scheme? Can house prices really rise forever? These are the questions we address on Australian Property Forum, the premier real estate site for property bears, bulls, investors, and speculators. Members may also discuss matters related to finance, modern monetary theory (MMT), debt deflation, cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin Ethereum and Ripple, property investing, landlords, tenants, debt consolidation, reverse home equity loans, the housing shortage, negative gearing, capital gains tax, land tax and macro prudential regulation.
Forum Rules:
The main forum may be used to discuss property, politics, economics and finance, precious metals, crypto currency, debt management, generational divides, climate change, sustainability, alternative energy, environmental topics, human rights or social justice issues, and other topics on a case by case basis. Topics unsuitable for the main forum may be discussed in the lounge. You agree you won't use this forum to post material that is illegal, private, defamatory, pornographic, excessively abusive or profane, threatening, or invasive of another forum member's privacy. Don't post NSFW content. Racist or ethnic slurs and homophobic comments aren't tolerated. Accusing forum members of serious crimes is not permitted. Accusations, attacks, abuse or threats, litigious or otherwise, directed against the forum or forum administrators aren't tolerated and will result in immediate suspension of your account for a number of days depending on the severity of the attack. No spamming or advertising in the main forum. Spamming includes repeating the same message over and over again within a short period of time. Don't post ALL CAPS thread titles. The Advertising and Promotion Subforum may be used to promote your Australian property related business or service. Active members of the forum who contribute regularly to main forum discussions may also include a link to their product or service in their signature block. Members are limited to one actively posting account each. A secondary account may be used solely for the purpose of maintaining a blog as long as that account no longer posts in threads. Any member who believes another member has violated these rules may report the offending post using the report button.
Australian Property Forum complies with ASIC Regulatory Guide 162 regarding Internet Discussion Sites. Australian Property Forum is not a provider of financial advice. Australian Property Forum does not in any way endorse the views and opinions of its members, nor does it vouch for for the accuracy or authenticity of their posts. It is not permitted for any Australian Property Forum member to post in the role of a licensed financial advisor or to post as the representative of a financial advisor. It is not permitted for Australian Property Forum members to ask for or offer specific buy, sell or hold recommendations on particular stocks, as a response to a request of this nature may be considered the provision of financial advice.
Views expressed on this forum are not representative of the forum owners. The forum owners are not liable or responsible for comments posted. Information posted does not constitute financial or legal advice. The forum owners accept no liability for information posted, nor for consequences of actions taken on the basis of that information. By visiting or using this forum, members and guests agree to be bound by the Zetaboards Terms of Use.
This site may contain copyright material (i.e. attributed snippets from online news reports), the use of which has not always been specifically authorized by the copyright owner. Such content is posted to advance understanding of environmental, political, human rights, economic, democratic, scientific, and social justice issues. This constitutes 'fair use' of such copyright material as provided for in section 107 of US Copyright Law. In accordance with Title 17 U.S.C. Section 107, the material on this site is distributed for research and educational purposes only. If you wish to use this material for purposes that go beyond 'fair use', you must obtain permission from the copyright owner. Such material is credited to the true owner or licensee. We will remove from the forum any such material upon the request of the owners of the copyright of said material, as we claim no credit for such material.
Privacy Policy: Australian Property Forum uses third party advertising companies to serve ads when you visit our site. These third party advertising companies may collect and use information about your visits to Australian Property Forum as well as other web sites in order to provide advertisements about goods and services of interest to you. If you would like more information about this practice and to know your choices about not having this information used by these companies, click here: Google Advertising Privacy FAQ
Australian Property Forum is hosted by Zetaboards. Please refer also to the Zetaboards Privacy Policy