There is always a bottom, but I would be surprised if Perth doesn't drag on the bottom for some time. That won't worry investors much, but home buyers should be trying to buy the right house in the right spot, and as stock numbers fall that becomes harder to achieve.
I would expect the numerical bottom to drag at least until this time next year.
But if you want to buy a house that is on the market today for $600,000, a comparable house in a comparable suburb in 12 months time might be $585,000. Might be $605,000. Will not be $500,000.
Is it worth spending $25,000 to $30,000 in rent to maybe save $15,000?
Buying now is in real terms as good as it will be in a year if you are ready to buy now.
If you are not ready to buy now then wait.
But if you are ready to buy now and decide to wait, don't bitch and moan that you missed your bottom.
My only hope for my three boys is that they turn out nothing at all like Chris.
I would expect the numerical bottom to drag at least until this time next year.
But if you want to buy a house that is on the market today for $600,000, a comparable house in a comparable suburb in 12 months time might be $585,000. Might be $605,000. Will not be $500,000.
Is it worth spending $25,000 to $30,000 in rent to maybe save $15,000?
Buying now is in real terms as good as it will be in a year if you are ready to buy now.
If you are not ready to buy now then wait.
But if you are ready to buy now and decide to wait, don't bitch and moan that you missed your bottom.
How's your wife's therapy going? Did you tick the 'English tuition' box?
I don't have a problem at all. If I can see a quantified explanation, I give it merit; but the idea that prices rise and fall based on simple supply / demand dynamics is flawed.
But what happens if listings are below the magic numbers, but rentals are above the magic numbers? Does that mean Easter?
Matthew
31 Aug 2016, 10:36 PM
I would expect the numerical bottom to drag at least until this time next year.
But if you want to buy a house that is on the market today for $600,000, a comparable house in a comparable suburb in 12 months time might be $585,000. Might be $605,000. Will not be $500,000.
Is it worth spending $25,000 to $30,000 in rent to maybe save $15,000?
Buying now is in real terms as good as it will be in a year if you are ready to buy now.
If you are not ready to buy now then wait.
But if you are ready to buy now and decide to wait, don't bitch and moan that you missed your bottom.
Oh, I expect September may put the shadow of Taurus on your chickens gizzards.
But what happens if listings are below the magic numbers, but rentals are above the magic numbers? Does that mean Easter?
Well I don't know. Look, the reality is that Uncle Matty could be given any old formula, simple enough for arithmetic function. When you start adding variables such as the volume of rental properties, it ridicules the whole idea of predicting house prices based on the most simplistic of notions.
Rufus
31 Aug 2016, 10:11 PM
I was told today that brokers in Perth have suddenly become very busy, which went against their own expectations. Might be worth a call to some local agents and brokers for a heads up. Personally I think it's too soon for a pickup, but the market has a way of surprising all of us.
Mortgage brokers are not druids who vomit golden eggs and sprinkle gold dust from their palms. In a not too distant past, they were pretty much in the same league as vacuum cleaner salespeople. It's an indictment on our society when mortgage brokers become opinion leaders.
According to the experts (we can comfortable exclude Dimjezdogarse) we are 4,700 units of housing from a pick up.
12,000 units for sale and a 3% vacancy rate.
But we have a 6.7% vacancy rate Matey.
So rental vacancies need to drop by over 6000 and sale units by 2,000.
OK.
Matthew, 30 Jan 2016, 09:21 AM Your simplistic view is so flawed it is not worth debating. The current oversupply will be swallowed in 12 months. By the time dumb shits like you realise this prices will already be rising.
History shows that when there are less than 12,000 houses for sale prices rise, when there are more prices fall.
Your over simplistic view on things makes you look stupid and will cost you money.
Cant teach an Engineer though, so we will just sit back with the popcorn and watch you ride this horse all the way to the bottom.
Great. So we have established that population growth, unemployment, wages, interest rates, market sentiment, local economic conditions, national economic conditions and global economic conditions have #uck all to do with house prices.
Just whether or not there are 12,000 places for sale?
Would you care to retract the following?
Quote:
Your over simplistic view on things makes you look stupid and will cost you money.
Because I can't think of anything more over simplistic than "history shows us that 12,000...........".
(apart from 1 REIWA reported block sale = 1.09 new housing units).
Matthew, 30 Jan 2016, 09:21 AM Your simplistic view is so flawed it is not worth debating. The current oversupply will be swallowed in 12 months. By the time dumb shits like you realise this prices will already be rising.
Mortgage brokers are not druids who vomit golden eggs and sprinkle gold dust from their palms. In a not too distant past, they were pretty much in the same league as vacuum cleaner salespeople. It's an indictment on our society when mortgage brokers become opinion leaders.
Said the man who proudly announced that supply and demand don't matter to prices.
Keep selling those hotdogs, there is money in cheap takeaways.
Great. So we have established that population growth, unemployment, wages, interest rates, market sentiment, local economic conditions, national economic conditions and global economic conditions have #uck all to do with house prices.
Just whether or not there are 12,000 places for sale?
No Dim those factors are all incredibly important drivers to the housing market. All will have some influence on stock on market. Neither change the fact that the market has an equilibrium point.
The fact that you claim to be an engineer and you can not understand the concept of equilibrium is hilarious.
Quote:
Would you care to retract the following?
No, because that is a statement of fact. Care to provide evidence to the contrary?
Would you care to retract the following?
Quote:
Obvious trades are all ever I do.
How did that one work out for you?
Quote:
Because I can't think of anything more over simplistic than "history shows us that 12,000...........".
(apart from 1 REIWA reported block sale = 1.09 new housing units).
Again Dim that figure came from a senior person within one of Perths largest builders. I have challenged you on a number of occasions to go through all 2,700 land listings on REIWA and prove the statement wrong. I have provided many links that show the statement to be plausible.
If you don't agree with it prove it with fact or f uck off.
My only hope for my three boys is that they turn out nothing at all like Chris.
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