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Perth Housing stock continues to fall
Topic Started: 12 Aug 2016, 02:42 PM (50,714 Views)
newjez
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Matthew
30 Aug 2016, 11:22 AM
Dim property experts have long considered 12,000 dwellings for sale and 3% vacancy rate as the two equilibrium points in the market. These are experts who spend their whole lives earning incomes from Property, not idiots like you spamming web forums.

History shows that when there are less than 12,000 houses for sale prices rise, when there are more prices fall. History shows less than 3% vacancy rate and rents rise, more than 3% they fall. This is irrespective of population growth.

In the 12 months to June 2004 just 32,300 people "arrived" in WA. House prices grew 17.3%
In the 12 months to June 2005 just 32,000 people arrived in WA. House prices grew 13%.
In the 12 months to June 2006 39,900 people arrived in WA. House prices grew 43.6%.

But in the 12 months to June 30 2012 78,000 people arrived in WA. House prices grew just 1.8%. More than twice the growth in population as 2004 and 2005, and almost twice the growth as 2006 but f*** all movement.

History shows no direct correlation between population growth and house price movement. It does show a direct correlation between stock on market and house price movement. Otherwise in the year to June 2012 house price growth would have been higher than in 2006, what with twice as many people coming to town and all that.

Your over simplistic view on things makes you look stupid and will cost you money.

Cant teach an Engineer though, so we will just sit back with the popcorn and watch you ride this horse all the way to the bottom.
Surely that 12000 or whatever figure should be represented as a percentage? Or does it apply tall cities in Australia and the world?

Pert population has increased from 1985, and from 2000.

Can you link to the article that says this is the definitive amount?
Edited by newjez, 30 Aug 2016, 06:20 PM.
Whenever you have an argument with someone, there comes a moment where you must ask yourself, whatever your political persuasion, 'am I the Nazi?'
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Jimbo
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newjez
30 Aug 2016, 06:19 PM
Can you link to the article that says this is the definitive amount?
No he can't.

He's gone to the bookies to clean up on the 2.30.

He only posts when he is feeling bored in a 5 star hotel in China.

Or when he is looking at his supermodel wife from the balcony of a 5 star luxury resort up north.
Matthew, 30 Jan 2016, 09:21 AM Your simplistic view is so flawed it is not worth debating. The current oversupply will be swallowed in 12 months. By the time dumb shits like you realise this prices will already be :?: rising.
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skamy
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Jimbo
30 Aug 2016, 04:45 AM
Bit of a "who can stay up the latest" competition going on here.

Why is 12,000 a sellers market? (hypothetical because we are at over 14,000 now).

Maybe in 2012, 12,000 became a sellers market, but we had 80,000 new people turn up that year and bugger all in the way of places to rent.

Plus we were in the middle of the biggest mining infrastructure boom in the history of WA.

And we were not building many houses or apartments.

And we had full employment.

So why is 12,000 going to trigger a sellers market when all the other stuff signals "run away, don't buy"?




Jimbo for heavens sakes use your common sense - why would a long term indicator like that suddenly disappear so that you can get your crash.

You can see the headlights coming your way - yet you will walk right into another Brexit.
Definition of a doom and gloomer from 1993
The last camp is made up of the doom-and-gloomers. Their slogan is "it's the end of the world as we know it". Right now they are convinced that debt is the evil responsible for all our economic woes and must be eliminated at all cost. Many doom-and-gloomers believe that unprecedented debt levels mean that we are on the precipice of a worse crisis than the Great Depression. The doom-and-gloomers hang on the latest series of negative economic data.
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Matthew
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Jimbo
30 Aug 2016, 05:17 PM
When somebody decided to establish the equilibrium of 12,000, how many rentals were available?

How much did one GBP buy?

How desperate were resource companies in their search for people with some of their limbs in place and a couple of functioning brain cells?

How shit were land releases?

How many long term locals had been seduced at a property seminar? (apart from you).

How much did a coffee cost in the city?

How hard was it to find office or industrial space?



All irrelevant.

Quote:
 
You may well be correct Matey.

So the current vacancy rate of 6.7% has a bit of a way to go before it hits the 3% 'sweet spot".

Thanks for the heads up.
You would do well to observe the entire market as opposed to just the bit that suits your agenda of the day.
Jimbo
30 Aug 2016, 06:37 PM
He's gone to the bookies to clean up on the 2.30.

Find a new line of attack. This one lost credibility with your Brexit punt.
newjez
30 Aug 2016, 06:19 PM
Surely that 12000 or whatever figure should be represented as a percentage? Or does it apply tall cities in Australia and the world?

Pert population has increased from 1985, and from 2000.

Can you link to the article that says this is the definitive amount?
I didn't do the research. REIWA, HIA and others have long expressed 12,000 properties and 3% vacancy as the two points of equilibrium. I am sure that it is population based. I am also sure that the population would need to grow significantly for the listing number change to be meaningful. If 12,000 was equilibrium at 1.6m population it does not necessarily mean it becomes 15,000at 2m population.

Whether you disagree with it or not history shows that when listings are less than 12,000 prices rise, when they are more prices fall. At 1.8% vacancy rentals rocketed. At 6% they are falling.

Rather than say I am wrong quoting people like REIWA how about you or Dim provide a link to an article that says otherwise?
Edited by Matthew, 30 Aug 2016, 06:51 PM.
My only hope for my three boys is that they turn out nothing at all like Chris.
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Jimbo
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skamy
30 Aug 2016, 06:43 PM
Jimbo for heavens sakes use your common sense - why would a long term indicator like that suddenly disappear so that you can get your crash.

What long term indicator? Show me the timeline.

Quote:
 
You can see the headlights coming your way - yet you will walk right into another Brexit.
I have lost a few grand on paper based on my misunderstanding of the peoples sentiment in a country where I haven't lived for nine years.

I should have known better.

How did your predictions of 10% Perth price rises go Skammy?

All that aside...

From where I am standing, right here, right now, Perth ain't going to be experiencing any kind of boom anytime soon.



Matthew, 30 Jan 2016, 09:21 AM Your simplistic view is so flawed it is not worth debating. The current oversupply will be swallowed in 12 months. By the time dumb shits like you realise this prices will already be :?: rising.
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Matthew
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newjez
30 Aug 2016, 06:19 PM
Surely that 12000 or whatever figure should be represented as a percentage? Or does it apply tall cities in Australia and the world?

Pert population has increased from 1985, and from 2000.

Can you link to the article that says this is the definitive amount?
Google returned these references out in less than 0.12 of a second.

http://reiwa.com.au/about-us/news/property-market-results-point-to-downturn-in-2015/

Quote:
 
“Perth’s equilibrium for listings in a balanced market is around 12,000 and indications are that we will clearly surpass this in 2015 which will add to selling days and put downwards pressure on price,” Mr Airey said.


http://www.perthnow.com.au/realestate/news/perth-wa/mining-downturn-may-create-perth-prestige-property-bargains/news-story/acab747d4b80b184afed39a2dbb53332

Quote:
 
Mr Airey said the total Perth market was near “equilibrium” with around 12,000 properties for sale, and listings climbing rapidly.


https://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/wa/a/25402542/perth-house-prices-tipped-to-fall/#page1

Quote:
 
Properties for sale had reached 11,935 and were likely to exceed 12,000 over the weekend. "Perth's equilibrium for listings in a balanced market is around 12,000 and indications are that we will clearly surpass this in 2015, which will add to selling days and put downwards pressure on price," Mr Airey said.



Quote:
 
The number of houses, units and blocks of land for sale in metropolitan Perth has now surpassed 14,000.

Most property experts believe equilibrium is achieved in Perth's residential market when there are about 12,000 properties on the market, which means it has swiftly transitioned from a seller's market to a buyer's market in less than a year.


http://www.afr.com/real-estate/perth-property-market-feels-just-like-a-recession-20150626-ghywoi#ixzz4Ingu4apS

http://www.planning.wa.gov.au/dop_pub_pdf/HFIG_October_2012_Report.pdf

Quote:
 
The number of listings (including land) reported by REIWA members in the
metropolitan area has reduced from its most recent high of over 18,000 in April but at
15,000 in September 2011 was still well above the market equilibrium of 12,000.




Of course Dim will maintain there is no equilibrium in the Western Australian property market. It is simply a function of shark attacks and pound cross rates.
Edited by Matthew, 30 Aug 2016, 07:05 PM.
My only hope for my three boys is that they turn out nothing at all like Chris.
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Jimbo
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Matthew
30 Aug 2016, 06:46 PM
All irrelevant.
So interest rates. unemployment, FIFO, rental vacancies, wages, exchange rates, state government coffers, foreign investment buyer legislation, stamp duty concessions, first time buyer grants, prices relative to other property elsewhere.

None of these things matter. It's all about the magic number of 12,000 properties listed for sale on REIWA.

Gotcha.

Nice one Matey.
Matthew, 30 Jan 2016, 09:21 AM Your simplistic view is so flawed it is not worth debating. The current oversupply will be swallowed in 12 months. By the time dumb shits like you realise this prices will already be :?: rising.
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Matthew
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Jimbo
30 Aug 2016, 06:56 PM
I have lost a few grand on paper based on my misunderstanding of the peoples sentiment in a country where I haven't lived for nine years.

I should have known better.
Yet you claimed that obvious trades are all you do, this would be taking candy from a baby, you have never lost and you would recover cost + 15% prior to the Brexit vote only to change the timing after initial falls.

You are a goose.
My only hope for my three boys is that they turn out nothing at all like Chris.
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Jimbo
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Matthew
30 Aug 2016, 07:03 PM
Google returned these references out in less than 0.12 of a second.
Google told me that Hans Solo died.

In 0.80 seconds.

Must be true then?
Matthew, 30 Jan 2016, 09:21 AM Your simplistic view is so flawed it is not worth debating. The current oversupply will be swallowed in 12 months. By the time dumb shits like you realise this prices will already be :?: rising.
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Matthew
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Jimbo
30 Aug 2016, 07:06 PM
So interest rates.
Yes

Quote:
 
unemployment
Yes

Quote:
 
FIFO
no - that is a subset of employment and with it unemployment

Quote:
 
rental vacancies
Yes

Quote:
 
wages
Yes

Quote:
 
exchange rates
Not directly, no

Quote:
 
state government coffers
Yes

Quote:
 
foreign investment buyer legislation
Yes

Quote:
 
stamp duty concessions
Yes

Quote:
 
first time buyer grants
Yes

Quote:
 
prices relative to other property elsewhere
Not directly, no.

But none of these were listed by you here:

Quote:
 
How much did one GBP buy?

How desperate were resource companies in their search for people with some of their limbs in place and a couple of functioning brain cells?

How shit were land releases?

How many long term locals had been seduced at a property seminar? (apart from you).

How much did a coffee cost in the city?

How hard was it to find office or industrial space?


Hence your prior claptrap was as irrelevant as shark attacks.
Jimbo
30 Aug 2016, 07:09 PM
Google told me that Hans Solo died.<br /><br />In 0.80 seconds.<br /><br />Must be true then?
You live in a fantasy world devoid of reality, so I am unsurprised you would embrace that.
Edited by Matthew, 30 Aug 2016, 07:11 PM.
My only hope for my three boys is that they turn out nothing at all like Chris.
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