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Perth Housing stock continues to fall
Topic Started: 12 Aug 2016, 02:42 PM (50,716 Views)
conork
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skamy
29 Aug 2016, 08:03 PM
No I am basing it on 12000 properties available for sale in a city of over 2m people. Particularly a city which has been stagnant for a decade.
cheers for the info - my concern would be;

Sales
Total: 14,054
4 weeks ago: 14,356
Same week last year: 14,155

Rentals
Total: 11178
4 weeks ago: 11479
Same week last year: 8203

That's not in recovery phase just yet.
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Jimbo
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conork
29 Aug 2016, 09:30 PM
cheers for the info - my concern would be;

Sales
Total:14,054
4 weeks ago:14,356
Same week last year:14,155

Rentals
Total:11178
4 weeks ago:11479
Same week last year:8203

That's not in recovery phase just yet.
Skammy was saying a year ago that a couple of thousand extra listings wouldn't have any impact on prices.

Now 300 less in a mid winters month is the signal that a boom is just around the corner so you'd better buy right now.

Matthew, 30 Jan 2016, 09:21 AM Your simplistic view is so flawed it is not worth debating. The current oversupply will be swallowed in 12 months. By the time dumb shits like you realise this prices will already be :?: rising.
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skamy
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Jimbo
29 Aug 2016, 08:41 PM
So no evidence then. Just a number pulled out of your bum.
You need to live in complete denial of every long term indicator to feed your crash fantasy Jimbo.
conork
29 Aug 2016, 09:30 PM
cheers for the info - my concern would be;

Sales
Total:14,054
4 weeks ago:14,356
Same week last year:14,155

Rentals
Total:11178
4 weeks ago:11479
Same week last year:8203

That's not in recovery phase just yet.
That is what I am saying but if this continues in 2 months the market will be back to a sellers market.

Already there is nothing like the number of great deals that were going at the start of the year.

So unless you believe in the Jimbo super crash that he thinks is just around the corner from the 10 years of stagnation it is pretty obvious the worst is over.
Jimbo
30 Aug 2016, 01:49 AM
Skammy was saying a year ago that a couple of thousand extra listings wouldn't have any impact on prices.

Now 300 less in a mid winters month is the signal that a boom is just around the corner so you'd better buy right now.
I was right Jimbo and you were wrong - the effect on prices was paltry. The fast evaporating drop in prices was not enough to cover your sales cost never mind stamp duty and over 2 years of rent.

You live in some kind of surreal world where you did not loose your shirt gambling on Brexit and silly house price crashes in rich cities that had not seen a price boom in years.
Edited by skamy, 30 Aug 2016, 04:31 AM.
Definition of a doom and gloomer from 1993
The last camp is made up of the doom-and-gloomers. Their slogan is "it's the end of the world as we know it". Right now they are convinced that debt is the evil responsible for all our economic woes and must be eliminated at all cost. Many doom-and-gloomers believe that unprecedented debt levels mean that we are on the precipice of a worse crisis than the Great Depression. The doom-and-gloomers hang on the latest series of negative economic data.
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Jimbo
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skamy
30 Aug 2016, 04:22 AM
That is what I am saying but if this continues in 2 months the market will be back to a sellers market.
Bit of a "who can stay up the latest" competition going on here.

Why is 12,000 a sellers market? (hypothetical because we are at over 14,000 now).

Maybe in 2012, 12,000 became a sellers market, but we had 80,000 new people turn up that year and bugger all in the way of places to rent.

Plus we were in the middle of the biggest mining infrastructure boom in the history of WA.

And we were not building many houses or apartments.

And we had full employment.

So why is 12,000 going to trigger a sellers market when all the other stuff signals "run away, don't buy"?





Edited by Jimbo, 30 Aug 2016, 04:48 AM.
Matthew, 30 Jan 2016, 09:21 AM Your simplistic view is so flawed it is not worth debating. The current oversupply will be swallowed in 12 months. By the time dumb shits like you realise this prices will already be :?: rising.
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Matthew
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Jimbo
30 Aug 2016, 04:45 AM
Bit of a "who can stay up the latest" competition going on here.

Why is 12,000 a sellers market? (hypothetical because we are at over 14,000 now).

Maybe in 2012, 12,000 became a sellers market, but we had 80,000 new people turn up that year and bugger all in the way of places to rent.

Plus we were in the middle of the biggest mining infrastructure boom in the history of WA.

And we were not building many houses or apartments.

And we had full employment.

So why is 12,000 going to trigger a sellers market when all the other stuff signals "run away, don't buy"?




Dim property experts have long considered 12,000 dwellings for sale and 3% vacancy rate as the two equilibrium points in the market. These are experts who spend their whole lives earning incomes from Property, not idiots like you spamming web forums.

History shows that when there are less than 12,000 houses for sale prices rise, when there are more prices fall. History shows less than 3% vacancy rate and rents rise, more than 3% they fall. This is irrespective of population growth.

In the 12 months to June 2004 just 32,300 people "arrived" in WA. House prices grew 17.3%
In the 12 months to June 2005 just 32,000 people arrived in WA. House prices grew 13%.
In the 12 months to June 2006 39,900 people arrived in WA. House prices grew 43.6%.

But in the 12 months to June 30 2012 78,000 people arrived in WA. House prices grew just 1.8%. More than twice the growth in population as 2004 and 2005, and almost twice the growth as 2006 but f*** all movement.

History shows no direct correlation between population growth and house price movement. It does show a direct correlation between stock on market and house price movement. Otherwise in the year to June 2012 house price growth would have been higher than in 2006, what with twice as many people coming to town and all that.

Your over simplistic view on things makes you look stupid and will cost you money.

Cant teach an Engineer though, so we will just sit back with the popcorn and watch you ride this horse all the way to the bottom.
Edited by Matthew, 30 Aug 2016, 12:37 PM.
My only hope for my three boys is that they turn out nothing at all like Chris.
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Jimbo
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Matthew
30 Aug 2016, 11:22 AM
Dim property experts have long considered 12,000 dwellings for sale and 3% vacancy rate as the two equilibrium points in the market. These are experts who spend their whole lives earning incomes from Property, not idiots like you spamming web forums.
So it has nothing to do with a combination of factors then?

Just 12,000 houses and a 3% vacancy rate?

It doesn't matter if land releases are slow and the Pound fetches $2.50.

It doesn't matter if every man and his dog has been to a property seminar.

If REIWA are reporting 12,000 or less, prices will go up, more than 12,000 and prices will "stagnate".

Thanks for your unsimplistic wisdom Matey.

Edited by Jimbo, 30 Aug 2016, 02:16 PM.
Matthew, 30 Jan 2016, 09:21 AM Your simplistic view is so flawed it is not worth debating. The current oversupply will be swallowed in 12 months. By the time dumb shits like you realise this prices will already be :?: rising.
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Jimbo
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Matthew
30 Aug 2016, 11:22 AM
In the 12 months to June 2004 just 32,300 people "arrived" in WA. House prices grew 17.3%
In the 12 months to June 2005 just 32,000 people arrived in WA. House prices grew 13%.
In the 12 months to June 2006 39,900 people arrived in WA. House prices grew 43.6%.
The GBP was fetching around $2.50 then.

The UK was in the middle of a massive property boom.

The UK is Perths largest source of migrants.

Perth land releases were incredibly slow.

Quote:
 
But in the 12 months to June 30 2012 78,000 people arrived in WA. House prices grew just 1.8%. More than twice the growth in population as 2004 and 2005, and almost twice the growth as 2006 but f*** all movement.
GBP AUD was $1.45. The UK was in the middle of a property crash..
Matthew, 30 Jan 2016, 09:21 AM Your simplistic view is so flawed it is not worth debating. The current oversupply will be swallowed in 12 months. By the time dumb shits like you realise this prices will already be :?: rising.
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Rufus
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The data on Perth tells me that Jimbo is having a win at the moment.

Lets see if he is smart enough to not get too greedy and hang on too long.

Take risks - if you win you will become wealthy, if you lose you will become wise
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Matthew
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Jimbo
30 Aug 2016, 02:15 PM
So it has nothing to do with a combination of factors then?

Just 12,000 houses and a 3% vacancy rate?

It doesn't matter if land releases are slow and the Pound fetches $2.50.

It doesn't matter if every man and his dog has been to a property seminar.

If REIWA are reporting 12,000 or less, prices will go up, more than 12,000 and prices will "stagnate".

Thanks for your unsimplistic wisdom Matey.
It is an incredibly complex set of criteria that will determine price movements Dimbo. But as you are trying to peg any growth in residential property prices to population growth of 80,000 people and a few shark attacks the intricacies of what actually happens will forever elude you.
Jimbo
30 Aug 2016, 03:29 PM
The GBP was fetching around $2.50 then.

The UK was in the middle of a massive property boom.

The UK is Perths largest source of migrants.

Perth land releases were incredibly slow.


GBP AUD was $1.45. The UK was in the middle of a property crash..
So your position is all property price growth in Perth is solely determined by the pound, shark attacks and Pommy house prices?

You are f***ed in the head Dim, no other word for it.
Rufus
30 Aug 2016, 03:56 PM
The data on Perth tells me that Jimbo is having a win at the moment.

Lets see if he is smart enough to not get too greedy and hang on too long.

Price falls have not mitigated his selling fees, rent or re-entry fees. He has not broken even. He is behind.
Edited by Matthew, 30 Aug 2016, 04:14 PM.
My only hope for my three boys is that they turn out nothing at all like Chris.
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Jimbo
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Rufus
30 Aug 2016, 03:56 PM
The data on Perth tells me that Jimbo is having a win at the moment.

Lets see if he is smart enough to not get too greedy and hang on too long.

We are contemplating moving to an apartment or unit somewhere on the coastal strip near the city. We will stay renting where we are for the next three or four years because the kids are settled and both are still in school.

We will buy something when we see something we like at the right price. We might buy next week or next year. Who knows?

Not sure if we will rent it out or just leave it empty until we are ready to move in. If we buy, I reckon it would be best to treat it as our PPOR rather than as an investment?

Both kids want to go to Uni in Perth so a city based apartment makes sense as it will be easier for them to pop in and visit.

I've reached that stage in my life where I am fed up with gardening and cleaning the pool.

I also like having things within walking distance (shops, pubs, eateries).

I am quite impressed with some of the apartments going up, standard of finish, amenities.

So much choice. Decisions, decisions..


Matthew
30 Aug 2016, 04:13 PM
It is an incredibly complex set of criteria that will determine price movements Dimbo.
Indeed it is Matey.

Not 12,000 listings, not 3% vacancy rates, not $2.50 to the Pound, not Shark attacks, not population growth, not slow land releases, not mining booms, not interest rates.

None of these things in isolation will create a boom or a bust.

A bag of flour is not a cake.

A bar of chocolate is not a cake.

An egg is not a cake.

Put them altogether though, in the right proportions, and you have a cake.

Mess up the mix and you have a brown sticky mess.

Now who was it again who said 12,000 properties for sale or less equaled price growth?

Who was it again who said REIWA reported land sales equaled supply?

Who was it again?



Edited by Jimbo, 30 Aug 2016, 04:32 PM.
Matthew, 30 Jan 2016, 09:21 AM Your simplistic view is so flawed it is not worth debating. The current oversupply will be swallowed in 12 months. By the time dumb shits like you realise this prices will already be :?: rising.
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