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Perth Housing stock continues to fall
Topic Started: 12 Aug 2016, 02:42 PM (50,665 Views)
Mike
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Perth House for sales peaked in November 2015 at 16,750 properties for sale.

As of yesterday this has steadily fallen to 14,088 or a fall of 2,662 properties for sale. This is a fall of 16% in housing stock over the past 9 months.

What is the cause of this? You would expect if more people are leaving WA for more house to be on the market, or if sales were so bad for stock to be increasing. Sales have tracked 2015 results or been slightly above 2015.

Or is it just people taking properties of the market till they can get a better price.

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http://mike-globaleconomy.blogspot.com.au/
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Terry
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Mike
12 Aug 2016, 02:42 PM
Perth House for sales peaked in November 2015 at 16,750 properties for sale.

As of yesterday this has steadily fallen to 14,088 or a fall of 2,662 properties for sale. This is a fall of 16% in housing stock over the past 9 months.

What is the cause of this? You would expect if more people are leaving WA for more house to be on the market, or if sales were so bad for stock to be increasing. Sales have tracked 2015 results or been slightly above 2015.

Or is it just people taking properties of the market till they can get a better price.

Divine intervention perhaps?
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Rastus2
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Mike
12 Aug 2016, 02:42 PM
Perth House for sales peaked in November 2015 at 16,750 properties for sale.

As of yesterday this has steadily fallen to 14,088 or a fall of 2,662 properties for sale. This is a fall of 16% in housing stock over the past 9 months.

What is the cause of this? You would expect if more people are leaving WA for more house to be on the market, or if sales were so bad for stock to be increasing. Sales have tracked 2015 results or been slightly above 2015.

Or is it just people taking properties of the market till they can get a better price.

Interesting, thanks.

I do notice that sales volume is down aprox 15% from last that snapshot in Nov also... so despite the drop in stock, the drop in demand has almost matched it.

Not sure what we can conclude from this information with any great certainy, other than to suggest that sometime mid/late next year might be a buying opportunity... heck, today might be one ;)

If sales volume rises, and stock does not flood back in, the boat may be tooting it's horn, ready to leave.
Shadow - Defrauded his Bank ? 2015 I have 9 different loans and my bank had no idea which ones were personal and which were investment. They had half of them classed incorrectly. When this change came in they asked me to tell them if any personal loans were incorrectly classed as investment, which I did, and they switched them to personal for the lower rate. They also had a couple of investment loans incorrectly classed as personal. They didn't ask me about those. So they stay on the lower rate too. Worked out pretty well. :)
Shadow - 2008 Sydney Median House Price 1.25M by 2014-2015

Shadow : I think this boom has already begun in several cities. My prediction :
Peak of boom: 2014-2015. Sydney Median Price: $1,250,000 Bottom of bust: 2017-2018. Sydney Median Price: $1,100,000

Shadow's Original 2010 House Boom and Crash prediction http://s836.photobucket.com/user/rastus22/media/shady-orig-2010-chart.png.html?sort=3&o=0

Shadow's attempt to edit his 2010 chart in 2015 and replace it with one that does not show a crash in 2013 http://s836.photobucket.com/user/rastus22/media/Screen%20Shot%202015-06-06%20at%207.12.52%20pm_1.png.html
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Jimbo
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Mike
12 Aug 2016, 02:42 PM
As of yesterday this has steadily fallen to 14,088 or a fall of 2,662 properties for sale. This is a fall of 16% in housing stock over the past 9 months.

What is the cause of this? You would expect if more people are leaving WA for more house to be on the market, or if sales were so bad for stock to be increasing.
Things is Mike, you neglect to mention that properties for sale are still higher than they were a year ago. Only by 300, but still up on a year ago.

And you totally forgot to mention the 3000 increase in the number of available rentals since this time last year.

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Sales have tracked 2015 results or been slightly above 2015.
And according to RP Data, prices are down by 6.64%.


Matthew, 30 Jan 2016, 09:21 AM Your simplistic view is so flawed it is not worth debating. The current oversupply will be swallowed in 12 months. By the time dumb shits like you realise this prices will already be :?: rising.
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Foxy
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Zero is coming...

Mike
12 Aug 2016, 02:42 PM
Perth House for sales peaked in November 2015 at 16,750 properties for sale.

As of yesterday this has steadily fallen to 14,088 or a fall of 2,662 properties for sale. This is a fall of 16% in housing stock over the past 9 months.

What is the cause of this? You would expect if more people are leaving WA for more house to be on the market, or if sales were so bad for stock to be increasing. Sales have tracked 2015 results or been slightly above 2015.

Or is it just people taking properties of the market till they can get a better price.

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Great post, i would say it is simple economics
how so you ask,
well,,

it costs money to be on the real estate websites, no??

The owners as dumb as they are get nervous when they know that their property is way over priced and that no offers anywhere near the asking, (mining boom fueled) has materialised.

So the agent say he dumb dumb, pony up.

Dumb dumb says whoo there cowdude, you want marketing money, no way.

So slowly the stock disappears, to come back on latter when the market improves and we have a once in a century mining boom :D :D

http://www.afr.com/content/dam/images/g/n/2/1/u/8/image.imgtype.afrArticleInline.620x0.png/1456285515560.png
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Trollie
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Jimbo
12 Aug 2016, 03:52 PM
Things is Mike, you neglect to mention that properties for sale are still higher than they were a year ago. Only by 300, but still up on a year ago.

And you totally forgot to mention the 3000 increase in the number of available rentals since this time last year.


And according to RP Data, prices are down by 6.64%.

Jimbo, you are going to miss the bottom by a long long way and deserve what's coming.
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newjez
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Mike
12 Aug 2016, 02:42 PM
Perth House for sales peaked in November 2015 at 16,750 properties for sale.

As of yesterday this has steadily fallen to 14,088 or a fall of 2,662 properties for sale. This is a fall of 16% in housing stock over the past 9 months.

What is the cause of this? You would expect if more people are leaving WA for more house to be on the market, or if sales were so bad for stock to be increasing. Sales have tracked 2015 results or been slightly above 2015.

Or is it just people taking properties of the market till they can get a better price.

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So, you have compared the hottest selling period to the slowest selling period?

People sell in Nov so they can get their kids settled in a new school year.

There is a reason we compare like for like.

Fair point the market is not dead, but fabrication will not make it appear livelier than it is.
Whenever you have an argument with someone, there comes a moment where you must ask yourself, whatever your political persuasion, 'am I the Nazi?'
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skamy
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foxbat
12 Aug 2016, 04:06 PM
Great post, i would say it is simple economics
how so you ask,
well,,

it costs money to be on the real estate websites, no??

The owners as dumb as they are get nervous when they know that their property is way over priced and that no offers anywhere near the asking, (mining boom fueled) has materialised.

So the agent say he dumb dumb, pony up.

Dumb dumb says whoo there cowdude, you want marketing money, no way.

So slowly the stock disappears, to come back on latter when the market improves and we have a once in a century mining boom :D :D
It was you who was dumb Peter - selling good Mt Lawley property in the middle of a downturn and expecting another 40% price crash. That is what I call dumb.

It is sensible to remove a sale from a bad market - people's homes are their biggest investment, why throw them away in a low confidence market unless they are upgrading?
Definition of a doom and gloomer from 1993
The last camp is made up of the doom-and-gloomers. Their slogan is "it's the end of the world as we know it". Right now they are convinced that debt is the evil responsible for all our economic woes and must be eliminated at all cost. Many doom-and-gloomers believe that unprecedented debt levels mean that we are on the precipice of a worse crisis than the Great Depression. The doom-and-gloomers hang on the latest series of negative economic data.
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Terry
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newjez
12 Aug 2016, 04:47 PM
So, you have compared the hottest selling period to the slowest selling period?

People sell in Nov so they can get their kids settled in a new school year.

There is a reason we compare like for like.

Fair point the market is not dead, but fabrication will not make it appear livelier than it is.
Perhaps Mikey is pre-testing his magic tricks for the weekend barbie.
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newjez
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Terry
12 Aug 2016, 06:55 PM
Perhaps Mikey is pre-testing his magic tricks for the weekend barbie.
He is good at pulling things out of his arse.
Whenever you have an argument with someone, there comes a moment where you must ask yourself, whatever your political persuasion, 'am I the Nazi?'
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