Welcome Guest [Log In] [Register]


Reply
  • Pages:
  • 1
  • 3
  • 8
The Sydney All Dwelling Index is teetering on 1M
Topic Started: 10 May 2016, 05:47 PM (9,342 Views)
Khaderbhai
Member Avatar
Wealthy Suburbanite

Terry
10 May 2016, 08:03 PM
Doesn't make them predictors.
It does when one of the correlating data sources is available several months in advance of the other.

It allows you to predict what the lagging data source will say when it becomes available.
Edited by Khaderbhai, 10 May 2016, 08:31 PM.
Banks can't repossess your home simply because the market value falls. Australia's Consumer Credit Code says consumers aren't liable for things ordinarily outside their control and can't be held to obligations that could only be met by selling their home. Click for details.

"The truth is that there are no good men, or bad men. It is the deeds that have goodness or badness in them. There are good deeds, and bad deeds. Men are just men."
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
Terry
Member Avatar


Khaderbhai
10 May 2016, 08:28 PM
It does when one of the correlating data sources is available several months in advance of the other.
Oh yeah. That will differ based on which seminar you go to.
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
Khaderbhai
Member Avatar
Wealthy Suburbanite

Terry
10 May 2016, 08:30 PM
Oh yeah. That will differ based on which seminar you go to.
Nothing to do with seminars.
Banks can't repossess your home simply because the market value falls. Australia's Consumer Credit Code says consumers aren't liable for things ordinarily outside their control and can't be held to obligations that could only be met by selling their home. Click for details.

"The truth is that there are no good men, or bad men. It is the deeds that have goodness or badness in them. There are good deeds, and bad deeds. Men are just men."
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
Terry
Member Avatar


Khaderbhai
10 May 2016, 08:31 PM
Nothing to do with seminars.
The word has to be spread. Just different interpretations. In most cases, no maths necessary or basic multiplicative functions.
Edited by Terry, 10 May 2016, 08:38 PM.
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
Khaderbhai
Member Avatar
Wealthy Suburbanite

Terry
10 May 2016, 08:36 PM
The word has to be spread.
You're descending into inanity.
Banks can't repossess your home simply because the market value falls. Australia's Consumer Credit Code says consumers aren't liable for things ordinarily outside their control and can't be held to obligations that could only be met by selling their home. Click for details.

"The truth is that there are no good men, or bad men. It is the deeds that have goodness or badness in them. There are good deeds, and bad deeds. Men are just men."
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
Terry
Member Avatar


Khaderbhai
10 May 2016, 08:37 PM
You're descending into inanity.
So you're saying the seminars don't want to share the magic of the predictions? Don't believe you.
Khaderbhai
10 May 2016, 08:37 PM
You're descending into inanity.
So you're saying the seminars don't want to share the magic of the predictions? Don't believe you.
Edited by Terry, 10 May 2016, 08:46 PM.
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
Khaderbhai
Member Avatar
Wealthy Suburbanite

Terry
10 May 2016, 08:42 PM
So you're saying the seminars don't want to share the magic of the predictions? Don't believe you.
So you're saying the seminars don't want to share the magic of the predictions? Don't believe you.
Double inanity.
Banks can't repossess your home simply because the market value falls. Australia's Consumer Credit Code says consumers aren't liable for things ordinarily outside their control and can't be held to obligations that could only be met by selling their home. Click for details.

"The truth is that there are no good men, or bad men. It is the deeds that have goodness or badness in them. There are good deeds, and bad deeds. Men are just men."
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
skamy
Member Avatar


Terry
10 May 2016, 08:03 PM
There are probably correlations between many things "house price related" and house prices that have a strong R2 or stronger fit than clearance rates.

Doesn't make them predictors.

Furthermore, I have recently shown 10 weeks of statistically lower clearance rates among lower volumes. What does it mean? I don't know and I'm sure as hell know that the suburbanites don't know either. Who knows? It could turn out to be an important indicator of something.
It depends on what you want to read into them. At the most simplistic level we have seen a slowing of a booming market to a great sellers market. This can often happen as some sellers get unrealistic expectations.

The lower volumes should be a concern for anyone hoping to buy in Sydney, some of this will be seasonal, but if this shortage of listings persists for any length of time that has to lead to higher prices.

It is really not that hard to interpret data Terry, I was able to analyse all that and not a z score in sight. Inexperienced people tend to over-use statistics and under-use common sense.
Terry
10 May 2016, 08:36 PM
The word has to be spread. Just different interpretations. In most cases, no maths necessary or basic multiplicative functions.
You are turning into one of those preacher doomster men Terry. Next we will have the fire and brimstone and accusation that home buyers are eating their children.
Edited by skamy, 11 May 2016, 11:00 AM.
Definition of a doom and gloomer from 1993
The last camp is made up of the doom-and-gloomers. Their slogan is "it's the end of the world as we know it". Right now they are convinced that debt is the evil responsible for all our economic woes and must be eliminated at all cost. Many doom-and-gloomers believe that unprecedented debt levels mean that we are on the precipice of a worse crisis than the Great Depression. The doom-and-gloomers hang on the latest series of negative economic data.
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
Terry
Member Avatar


skamy
11 May 2016, 10:57 AM


It is really not that hard to interpret data Terry, I was able to analyse all that and not a z score in sight. Inexperienced people tend to over-use statistics and under-use common sense.

Roddy, there is nothing overly "analytical" about describing data. Also, determining a z score between 2 independent samples is simply a tool to help discriminate the differences between means and %s. Nothing dark arts about it all. Your puppet master's kids probably learn it it at school and it's used in R&D, finance, economics, engineering, etc. every day.
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
Khaderbhai
Member Avatar
Wealthy Suburbanite

Rufus
10 May 2016, 05:47 PM
It was 955 at the end of April and just 10 later it's registering 979

At that rate it could reach 1M by the end of the May.

http://www.corelogic.com.au/research/daily-indices.html

It was just 915 a short time ago.

Amazing.
Now at 987.
Banks can't repossess your home simply because the market value falls. Australia's Consumer Credit Code says consumers aren't liable for things ordinarily outside their control and can't be held to obligations that could only be met by selling their home. Click for details.

"The truth is that there are no good men, or bad men. It is the deeds that have goodness or badness in them. There are good deeds, and bad deeds. Men are just men."
Profile "REPLY WITH QUOTE" Go to top
 
1 user reading this topic (1 Guest and 0 Anonymous)
DealsFor.me - The best sales, coupons, and discounts for you
Go to Next Page
« Previous Topic · Australian Property Forum · Next Topic »
Reply
  • Pages:
  • 1
  • 3
  • 8



Australian Property Forum is an economics and finance forum dedicated to discussion of Australian and global real estate markets and macroeconomics, including house prices, housing affordability, and the likelihood of a property crash. Is there an Australian housing bubble? Will house prices crash, boom or stagnate? Is the Australian property market a pyramid scheme or Ponzi scheme? Can house prices really rise forever? These are the questions we address on Australian Property Forum, the premier real estate site for property bears, bulls, investors, and speculators. Members may also discuss matters related to finance, modern monetary theory (MMT), debt deflation, cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin Ethereum and Ripple, property investing, landlords, tenants, debt consolidation, reverse home equity loans, the housing shortage, negative gearing, capital gains tax, land tax and macro prudential regulation.

Forum Rules: The main forum may be used to discuss property, politics, economics and finance, precious metals, crypto currency, debt management, generational divides, climate change, sustainability, alternative energy, environmental topics, human rights or social justice issues, and other topics on a case by case basis. Topics unsuitable for the main forum may be discussed in the lounge. You agree you won't use this forum to post material that is illegal, private, defamatory, pornographic, excessively abusive or profane, threatening, or invasive of another forum member's privacy. Don't post NSFW content. Racist or ethnic slurs and homophobic comments aren't tolerated. Accusing forum members of serious crimes is not permitted. Accusations, attacks, abuse or threats, litigious or otherwise, directed against the forum or forum administrators aren't tolerated and will result in immediate suspension of your account for a number of days depending on the severity of the attack. No spamming or advertising in the main forum. Spamming includes repeating the same message over and over again within a short period of time. Don't post ALL CAPS thread titles. The Advertising and Promotion Subforum may be used to promote your Australian property related business or service. Active members of the forum who contribute regularly to main forum discussions may also include a link to their product or service in their signature block. Members are limited to one actively posting account each. A secondary account may be used solely for the purpose of maintaining a blog as long as that account no longer posts in threads. Any member who believes another member has violated these rules may report the offending post using the report button.

Australian Property Forum complies with ASIC Regulatory Guide 162 regarding Internet Discussion Sites. Australian Property Forum is not a provider of financial advice. Australian Property Forum does not in any way endorse the views and opinions of its members, nor does it vouch for for the accuracy or authenticity of their posts. It is not permitted for any Australian Property Forum member to post in the role of a licensed financial advisor or to post as the representative of a financial advisor. It is not permitted for Australian Property Forum members to ask for or offer specific buy, sell or hold recommendations on particular stocks, as a response to a request of this nature may be considered the provision of financial advice.

Views expressed on this forum are not representative of the forum owners. The forum owners are not liable or responsible for comments posted. Information posted does not constitute financial or legal advice. The forum owners accept no liability for information posted, nor for consequences of actions taken on the basis of that information. By visiting or using this forum, members and guests agree to be bound by the Zetaboards Terms of Use.

This site may contain copyright material (i.e. attributed snippets from online news reports), the use of which has not always been specifically authorized by the copyright owner. Such content is posted to advance understanding of environmental, political, human rights, economic, democratic, scientific, and social justice issues. This constitutes 'fair use' of such copyright material as provided for in section 107 of US Copyright Law. In accordance with Title 17 U.S.C. Section 107, the material on this site is distributed for research and educational purposes only. If you wish to use this material for purposes that go beyond 'fair use', you must obtain permission from the copyright owner. Such material is credited to the true owner or licensee. We will remove from the forum any such material upon the request of the owners of the copyright of said material, as we claim no credit for such material.

For more information go to Limitations on Exclusive Rights: Fair Use

Privacy Policy: Australian Property Forum uses third party advertising companies to serve ads when you visit our site. These third party advertising companies may collect and use information about your visits to Australian Property Forum as well as other web sites in order to provide advertisements about goods and services of interest to you. If you would like more information about this practice and to know your choices about not having this information used by these companies, click here: Google Advertising Privacy FAQ

Australian Property Forum is hosted by Zetaboards. Please refer also to the Zetaboards Privacy Policy