It's all based on the same data - i.e. RP Data's portfolio.
Anyway, it's fun to look back at the Sydney Auction Results thread and note all the members, and several mystery guests, who predicted exactly this price growth result several months ago, based on the auction results. At the time you said it was impossible for them to make such predictions ("regression blah blah blah").
But make predictions they did. And their predictions were right.
The fact that they did it, proves that it's possible to make accurate predictions without running linear regressions.
Or in other words, you were wrong again.
I wonder how much money some of those people made on the back of their excellent forecasting ability?
Did you make much money during the same period by faffing around with linear regressions?
The "portfolio" is not the All Dwelling Index.
As for predictions, I can say the Bronocs will win. I may be even be able to "predict" the margin.
I can't say the clearance rate is a predictor of an index because I'm not a fraud.
"The truth is that there are no good men, or bad men. It is the deeds that have goodness or badness in them. There are good deeds, and bad deeds. Men are just men."
Smarter people than you have been successfully using clearance rates as a predictor for many years, and making lots of money as a result.
Just because you can't do it doesn't mean others suffer from the same limitations.
That's as clever as saying an index is based on a collection of data points.
People have been making money playing poker too. Some have belief systems that they believe, even if they are based on little more than faith and hope.
That's quite true, but the house price index shown in the monthly data almost mirrors the median house price, so it's a de facto median price of sorts.
That's as clever as saying an index is based on a collection of data points.
Both are true statements. What's your point?
Quote:
People have been making money playing poker too. Some have belief systems that they believe, even if they are based on little more than faith and hope.
Yeah right, the strong correlation between auction results and house prices, that has existed forever (since auction results were first collected), is just a random coincidence. Auction results and house price growth have mirrored each other for several decades due to sheer luck.
The fact that you truly believe nonsense like that is why you fail so badly when it comes to the housing market.
"The truth is that there are no good men, or bad men. It is the deeds that have goodness or badness in them. There are good deeds, and bad deeds. Men are just men."
"It were not best that we should all think alike; it is difference of opinion that makes horse races." - Mark Twain on why he avoids discussing house prices over at MacroBusiness. "Buy land, they're not making any more of it." - Georgist Land Tax proponent Mark Twain laughing in his grave at humourless idiots like skamy that continually use this quip to justify housing bubbles.
Yeah right, the strong correlation between auction results and house prices, that has existed forever (since auction results were first collected), is just a random coincidence. Auction results and house price growth have mirrored each other for several decades due to sheer luck.
The fact that you truly believe nonsense like that is why you fail so badly when it comes to the housing market.
There are probably correlations between many things "house price related" and house prices that have a strong R2 or stronger fit than clearance rates.
Doesn't make them predictors.
Furthermore, I have recently shown 10 weeks of statistically lower clearance rates among lower volumes. What does it mean? I don't know and I'm sure as hell know that the suburbanites don't know either. Who knows? It could turn out to be an important indicator of something.
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