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Steel index rising, floating all boats with it.; So much for those forecasts.
Topic Started: 11 Mar 2016, 03:20 PM (3,320 Views)
kodiak
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It's going to go down again again like a 2 dollar crack ho. The only survivors will be the major players. This is a gift of a trade. I wish that I was liquid.
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createdby
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It's just blue skies and flowers festival. Sort of like how they froze production for Beijing Olympics blue skies. Top down command economy makes this possible. This is not a permanent uptick. Because, as everybody knows already, China is f ucked. 6 million about to be laid off. 28 trillion in debt (half the world's) about to be monetised. There's no blue skies for this collapsed economy except the one they're artificially creating in April.


It's like when Spot for IO climbed from $100 to $200 from 2007 to 2008 to accelerate production then freeze it a few months before August 2008 Beijing Olmpics (to clear the skies). After the Olympic event (and blue skies are not needed anymore for Chinese slaves :ni: ), it crashed back down to $50 in 2009.


Consider yourself warned.




http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-03-08/there-s-a-theory-that-flower-power-helped-fuel-the-massive-rally-in-iron-ore
There's a Theory That Flower Power Helped Fuel the Massive Rally in Iron Ore
Supply-side cuts or horticultural expositions?

Luke Kawa LJKawa
March 8, 2016 — 11:49 PM AEDT

After iron ore enjoyed a ten-sigma spike on Monday, analysts are grasping at straws to explain the magnitude of this move:
Chinese policymakers' willingness to increase fiscal stimulus has been the most commonly cited cause of the jump, with plans to shutter steel and iron capacity supposedly enhancing the magnitude of the advance.

Jefferies, however, threw cold water on the notion that end-demand for steel—which counts iron ore as a key input—has been considerably buttressed amid this curious price action.
"We think this is mainly due to speculative demand," wrote Jefferies Analysts Po Wei and Howard Lau. "We think [the] recent reserve requirement ratio [cut will] allow the steel traders to lever up again, and the low traders’ inventory back in January have been the main causes of the hike."
Bank of America Merrill Lynch Strategist David Cui, meanwhile, warned that the supply-side measures would not be sufficient to tip the scales of the market back into balance.
"In general, we believe the capacity closure themes are over-played by the market," he wrote.
There's a wilder theory floating around in the Australian press and some Wall Street circles about why prices moved so far so fast, however.
Perhaps to understand this move, we need only stop and smell the roses.
The 2016 International Horticultural Exposition is slated to be held in Tangshan, which is located in China's steel-producing province of Hebei, from late April to October.
"There's one industry view flagging that a horticultural event in the big steel-producing industry of Hebei Province is seeking an industry shutdown for April-October (want nice blue skies)," wrote Morgan Stanley Analyst Tom Price. "Weird angle. If true, then ore demand's simply being pulled forward and steel mills of Hebei must be pretty confident that their product can be sold later in 2016 [plus] ore prices will fall over in May."
If so, this would be a particularly idiosyncratic explanation for iron ore's melt-up: that steelmakers are loading up on inputs to produce at full tilt right now before output is meaningfully curtailed to create a better environment for the millions of visitors who are expected to attend the flowery spectacle.
One caveat: coking coal, another input in the steelmaking process, hasn't enjoyed nearly as much of a rally as iron ore, which somewhat undermines the theory that mills are gorging on these raw materials to boost production at the present time.
This whole concept, as some have quipped, is quite literally blue-sky thinking. And it may well turn out to have been a pie-in-the-sky idea.
But the oddity of the rumor underscores just how uncommon Monday's move was, and just how difficult it is to find a well-fitting narrative.
Or perhaps the flower is indeed mightier than the forward curve.
Edited by createdby, 12 Mar 2016, 11:55 AM.
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Trollie
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createdby
11 Mar 2016, 04:59 PM
The majors are so profitable that:

Rio lost 1.2 billion in 2015
BHP lost 7.8 billion in half of 2015
Vale lost 12.13 billion in 2015
You are so stupid that you can't understand those "loses" were write downs, only Vale actually lost cash. BHP's problem was oil, not iron ore as well.

Actually, just leave the commenting to adults next time.
All the future predictions that the price will sit in the 30's and 40's are based on this magic assumption that roy hill and vale's expansion plans will survive.

Posted Image

Roy hill can't survive $30 and neither can Vale.
Edited by Trollie, 12 Mar 2016, 12:23 PM.
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newjez
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createdby
12 Mar 2016, 11:13 AM
It's just blue skies and flowers festival. Sort of like how they froze production for Beijing Olympics blue skies. Top down command economy makes this possible. This is not a permanent uptick. Because, as everybody knows already, China is f ucked. 6 million about to be laid off. 28 trillion in debt (half the world's) about to be monetised. There's no blue skies for this collapsed economy except the one they're artificially creating in April.


It's like when Spot for IO climbed from $100 to $200 from 2007 to 2008 to accelerate production then freeze it a few months before August 2008 Beijing Olmpics (to clear the skies). After the Olympic event (and blue skies are not needed anymore for Chinese slaves :ni: ), it crashed back down to $50 in 2009.


Consider yourself warned.




http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-03-08/there-s-a-theory-that-flower-power-helped-fuel-the-massive-rally-in-iron-ore
There's a Theory That Flower Power Helped Fuel the Massive Rally in Iron Ore
Supply-side cuts or horticultural expositions?

Luke Kawa LJKawa
March 8, 2016 — 11:49 PM AEDT

After iron ore enjoyed a ten-sigma spike on Monday, analysts are grasping at straws to explain the magnitude of this move:
Chinese policymakers' willingness to increase fiscal stimulus has been the most commonly cited cause of the jump, with plans to shutter steel and iron capacity supposedly enhancing the magnitude of the advance.

Jefferies, however, threw cold water on the notion that end-demand for steel—which counts iron ore as a key input—has been considerably buttressed amid this curious price action.
"We think this is mainly due to speculative demand," wrote Jefferies Analysts Po Wei and Howard Lau. "We think [the] recent reserve requirement ratio [cut will] allow the steel traders to lever up again, and the low traders’ inventory back in January have been the main causes of the hike."
Bank of America Merrill Lynch Strategist David Cui, meanwhile, warned that the supply-side measures would not be sufficient to tip the scales of the market back into balance.
"In general, we believe the capacity closure themes are over-played by the market," he wrote.
There's a wilder theory floating around in the Australian press and some Wall Street circles about why prices moved so far so fast, however.
Perhaps to understand this move, we need only stop and smell the roses.
The 2016 International Horticultural Exposition is slated to be held in Tangshan, which is located in China's steel-producing province of Hebei, from late April to October.
"There's one industry view flagging that a horticultural event in the big steel-producing industry of Hebei Province is seeking an industry shutdown for April-October (want nice blue skies)," wrote Morgan Stanley Analyst Tom Price. "Weird angle. If true, then ore demand's simply being pulled forward and steel mills of Hebei must be pretty confident that their product can be sold later in 2016 [plus] ore prices will fall over in May."
If so, this would be a particularly idiosyncratic explanation for iron ore's melt-up: that steelmakers are loading up on inputs to produce at full tilt right now before output is meaningfully curtailed to create a better environment for the millions of visitors who are expected to attend the flowery spectacle.
One caveat: coking coal, another input in the steelmaking process, hasn't enjoyed nearly as much of a rally as iron ore, which somewhat undermines the theory that mills are gorging on these raw materials to boost production at the present time.
This whole concept, as some have quipped, is quite literally blue-sky thinking. And it may well turn out to have been a pie-in-the-sky idea.
But the oddity of the rumor underscores just how uncommon Monday's move was, and just how difficult it is to find a well-fitting narrative.
Or perhaps the flower is indeed mightier than the forward curve.
In isolation, but also marry it to the price of oil and copper.

This is not a flower show. It is an uptick, and it's worth riding till brexit.

That uncertainty will upset markets, and may be a good time to take profits.

Assuming brexit fails, it should rally again.

Still risky but worth riding.
Whenever you have an argument with someone, there comes a moment where you must ask yourself, whatever your political persuasion, 'am I the Nazi?'
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createdby
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newjez
12 Mar 2016, 06:07 PM
This is not a flower show.
It's for the f ing flower show! That's it!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aiLEGhPlJIs




Once that is over, they'll return to normal pace of pollution, I mean production for these slaves.


Posted Image

Can I haz a $35 per tonne iron ore I mean oxygen tank?

Posted Image
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newjez
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Show me some commodities that haven't gone up over the past couple of months, and I'll smell the roses.
Whenever you have an argument with someone, there comes a moment where you must ask yourself, whatever your political persuasion, 'am I the Nazi?'
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createdby
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newjez
13 Mar 2016, 04:31 AM
Show me some commodities that haven't gone up over the past couple of months, and I'll smell the roses.
No you look at a chart for most commodities in 1 and 5 year charts then slam your head on the table.

I can show you any months within those 1 and 5 years charts and they will have upward spikes in them. Just like the one were having now for the flower show.
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Trollie
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createdby
13 Mar 2016, 02:03 PM
No you look at a chart for most commodities in 1 and 5 year charts then slam your head on the table.

I can show you any months within those 1 and 5 years charts and they will have upward spikes in them. Just like the one were having now for the flower show.
Sweet jesus the iron ore rally HAS broken this one!

Last peak broke higher than the previous movement. Do you need a Valium?
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skamy
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Trollie
13 Mar 2016, 07:37 PM
Sweet jesus the iron ore rally HAS broken this one!

Last peak broke higher than the previous movement. Do you need a Valium?
Trollie where do you get the iron ore data? I cannot find live data that is not behind a paywall
Definition of a doom and gloomer from 1993
The last camp is made up of the doom-and-gloomers. Their slogan is "it's the end of the world as we know it". Right now they are convinced that debt is the evil responsible for all our economic woes and must be eliminated at all cost. Many doom-and-gloomers believe that unprecedented debt levels mean that we are on the precipice of a worse crisis than the Great Depression. The doom-and-gloomers hang on the latest series of negative economic data.
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Simon_S
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Dead cat bounce?

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