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Forecasts of $20/t iron ore. The response? IO now $48/t.; Iron ore recovery offers budget boon hopes
Topic Started: 21 Feb 2016, 07:58 PM (42,869 Views)
Terry
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Rufus
5 Mar 2016, 03:02 PM
Why did you say that? Are you just obfuscating for the sake of obfuscating?

Do you listen to or read the news?
China has not announced any "special" fiscal stimulus above and beyond policy. What is "obfuscating" about that?

You're simply living out a fantasy that you know what's going to happen when you don't.
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Loki
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Trollie
5 Mar 2016, 02:45 PM
Rush to the exits is just a bear fantasy.
So, to be clear, your position is that even if there was a clear and unambiguous indicator that house prices were going to drop 40-50% in the next 3 to 6 months, all investors would hold on to their properties regardless?


“Talk sense to a fool and he calls you foolish.” - Euripides
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Rufus
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Terry
5 Mar 2016, 03:12 PM
China has not announced any "special" fiscal stimulus above and beyond policy. What is "obfuscating" about that?

You're simply living out a fantasy that you know what's going to happen when you don't.
They will allow credit growth to increase to 13% and that is going to have an affect on housing, which has recently become quite strong.

Quote:
 
If you think China's stock bubble was nuts, look at what's now happening in its property market

Link
Take risks - if you win you will become wealthy, if you lose you will become wise
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Terry
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Rufus
5 Mar 2016, 03:28 PM
They will allow credit growth to increase to 13% and that is going to have an affect on housing, which has recently become quite strong.



Link
That is not fiscal stimulus nor does it necessarily have anything to do with commodity prices and an economic "recovery".

Speculation in China gives you a hard on? It's probably the last thing they need.
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Rufus
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Terry
5 Mar 2016, 03:54 PM
That is not fiscal stimulus nor does it necessarily have anything to do with commodity prices and an economic "recovery".

Speculation in China gives you a hard on? It's probably the last thing they need.
Increasing the money supply is stimulus, more specifically in housing.
Housing construction is the largest user of iron ore via rebar.

I'm looking at the effect on our economy, not making judgements about China. That is a strawman.

Take risks - if you win you will become wealthy, if you lose you will become wise
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Veritas
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Rufus
5 Mar 2016, 04:03 PM
Increasing the money supply is stimulus, more specifically in housing.
Housing construction is the largest user of iron ore via rebar.

I'm looking at the effect on our economy, not making judgements about China. That is a strawman.
But increasing the money supply does not increase house prices.

Got it.
Property acquisition as a topic was almost a national obsession. You couldn't even call it speculation as the buyers all presumed the price of property could only go up. That’s why we use the word obsession. Ordinary people were buying properties for their young children who had not even left school assuming they would not be able to afford property of their own when they left college- Klaus Regling on Ireland. Sound familiar?

The evidence of nearly 40 cycles in house prices for 17 OECD economies since 1970 shows that real house prices typically give up about 70 per cent of their rise in the subsequent fall, and that these falls occur slowly.
Morgan Kelly:On the Likely Extent of Falls in Irish House Prices, 2007
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Rufus
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Veritas
5 Mar 2016, 04:17 PM
But increasing the money supply does not increase house prices.

Got it.
It will enable prices to rise when demand outstrips supply.

Got it?
Take risks - if you win you will become wealthy, if you lose you will become wise
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Rastus2
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Trollie
5 Mar 2016, 10:22 AM
It's probably because it's under valued. Cut through all the emotional click bait articles and you can see steel output has dropped a mere 3%, but the iron ore price dropped 60%.
It's following the steel futures, as the price for steel rises the traders are following it up because the supposed supply glut is rubbish made up by the above click baiters

Posted Image

Think about it, if it was all supply glut, why would the price be rising?





What you says sounds plausable,

So now explain the gold
Quote:
 
dead cat bounce
you cited...
Shadow - Defrauded his Bank ? 2015 I have 9 different loans and my bank had no idea which ones were personal and which were investment. They had half of them classed incorrectly. When this change came in they asked me to tell them if any personal loans were incorrectly classed as investment, which I did, and they switched them to personal for the lower rate. They also had a couple of investment loans incorrectly classed as personal. They didn't ask me about those. So they stay on the lower rate too. Worked out pretty well. :)
Shadow - 2008 Sydney Median House Price 1.25M by 2014-2015

Shadow : I think this boom has already begun in several cities. My prediction :
Peak of boom: 2014-2015. Sydney Median Price: $1,250,000 Bottom of bust: 2017-2018. Sydney Median Price: $1,100,000

Shadow's Original 2010 House Boom and Crash prediction http://s836.photobucket.com/user/rastus22/media/shady-orig-2010-chart.png.html?sort=3&o=0

Shadow's attempt to edit his 2010 chart in 2015 and replace it with one that does not show a crash in 2013 http://s836.photobucket.com/user/rastus22/media/Screen%20Shot%202015-06-06%20at%207.12.52%20pm_1.png.html
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Simon_S
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So will that translate to higher house prices in Australia..................When.............

Housing affordability crisis takes hold as borrowers start to feel the pinch

Quote:
 
Sydney’s median house price is now more than $1 million and NSW households are taking on record levels of debt to keep up. Very weak wages growth has contributed to the deterioration in housing affordability.


Quote:
 
The deterioration in housing affordability in follows a decision by major lenders to increasing their variable rates out of line with the Reserve Bank’s official cash rate.

“Sydney is now officially unaffordable, despite the Reserve Bank keeping interest rates at a 30-year low,” said Domain Group chief economist Andrew Wilson, who undertook the modelling.



Does Debt matter?
Edited by Simon_S, 5 Mar 2016, 04:26 PM.
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Rufus
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Simon_S
5 Mar 2016, 04:25 PM
So will that translate to higher house prices in Australia..................When.............
No - construction in China effects miners and thus towns where miners live, but if anything it's a negative for prices in Sydney and Melbourne.

Quote:
 
Does Debt matter?

Of course, but as all money is created through debt it's a necessity.
Take risks - if you win you will become wealthy, if you lose you will become wise
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